Not so long ago, biofuels were being hailed as the answer to the world's fossil fuel addiction. These days, the media is full of warnings about the potential harm of growing crops for fuel instead of food.

Britain's Independent newspaper reports that African scientists and activists want a moratorium on new biofuels projects because they're taking over millions of acres of the continent's best farmland.

"We need to protect food security, forests, water, land rights, farmers and indigenous peoples from the aggressive march of agrofuel developments," reads the call for a moratorium issued by the African Biodiversity Network at a meeting in South Africa last week.

African governments have jumped on the biofuels bandwagon hoping for new exports, jobs and energy security, says the paper. "The reality is the forced removal of small farmers, rising food costs and scant benefits for local populations," it argues.

Nigerian environmentalist Nnimmo Bassey describes private companies' accumulation of large areas of agricultural land as "a flashback to colonial plantations".

International bank Goldman Sachs predicts that the amount of land given over to biofuels is likely to rise from around 50 million hectares in 2007 to close to 120 million by 2015.

Besides the political and ethical implications of this, there are clear signals that growing demand for biofuels will help keep food prices high in the coming years. In a briefing issued last week, the Food and Agriculture Organisation said that around 12 percent of the world's maize is being used to produce biofuels (mainly ethanol).

Due to soaring international cereal prices and freight rates, it warned that the cereal import bill for low-income countries is expected to rise by 35 percent for the second consecutive year, with an even higher increase anticipated for Africa.

'PEAK FOOD'

In an article based on a presentation by Goldman Sachs, the Daily Telegraph newspaper argues that the way crops can be switched between food and fuel has created a new problem as the world seeks a replacement for limited oil and gas reserves.

"Corn can be used for ethanol in cars and power plants, for plastics, as well as in baking tortillas. Natural gas can be made into fertiliser for food output. "Peak Oil" is morphing into "Peak Food"," says the paper, warning that vulnerable parts of the world face the risk of famine in the next three years as rising energy costs cause a food crunch.

While that may seem alarmist, food is certainly becoming less affordable from West Africa to South Asia, where Pakistan is introducing ration cards allowing lower-income citizens to buy flour at subsidised prices.

To make matters worse, a recent study published in the journal Science warned that food-based biofuels can actually hurt the environment if produced on land that was formerly grassland, rain forest or savanna - in some cases increasing the amount of climate-warming carbon dioxide that goes into the atmosphere.

In response, Britain's Royal Society argued that biofuels can play a role in cutting greenhouse gas emissions, depending on how crops are grown and converted, and how the fuel is used.

"Given that biofuels are already entering global markets, it will be vital to apply carbon certification and sustainability criteria to the assessment of biofuels to promote those that are good for people and the environment," said Professor John Pickett, who chaired a recent Royal Society study on sustainable biofuels.

Painting biofuels as an environmental and political baddie may be premature. But if policymakers don't act to stop the worst scenarios becoming reality, at least they won't be able to say they weren't warned.

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