Given the significant changes that have recently been recorded in the earth's environment, it seems certain that climate-related factors will play an even more prominent role in prompting human mobility and displacement in the years to come. But analysts differ significantly on the number of people who are likely to be affected by this phenomenon.

Even if the estimates vary, the U.N. refugee agency, UNHCR, is convinced that the impact of climate change on human mobility and displacement is likely to be so serious that it demands urgent action by the international community.

Climate change is undermining livelihoods, driving income divergence and thereby deepening existing global inequalities. While the globalisation process has lifted millions of people out of poverty, climate change could obstruct further advances in human development and human security or reverse them, exacerbating social tensions and sparking communal conflict.

As land becomes less productive and livelihood options diminish, the process of urbanisation will accelerate, generating additional competition for scarce resources and public services in cities across the globe. Add to this scenario the sharply rising price of staple foods such as rice and wheat, and the potential for political instability and violence appears to be considerable.

The impact of climate change will not, of course, be evenly felt across the globe. Africa and Asia, where the largest number of refugees and displaced people are already to be found, are generally considered as the continents to be most seriously affected.

Similarly, climate change will not affect all people in the same way or to the same extent. Almost inevitably, the hardest hit will be the poor, the young, the elderly and members of ethnic minorities.

While there is a value in trying to project the likely consequences of climate change, an equally and arguably more urgent need is that of strengthening responses to the consequences of this phenomenon. The international community's primary interest is in ensuring that people who are displaced as a direct or indirect result of environmental factors are effectively protected, that their welfare is properly safeguarded, and that they are able to find a lasting solution to their plight.

On the basis of past experience, it seems likely that climate change and natural disasters will lead to new and larger situations of internal displacement, rather than cross-border movements of people. As states have primary responsibility for their citizens, national and local authorities have an especially important role to play in responding to such emergencies..

UNHCR encourages states to respect their obligations under international human rights law and to make full use of the 1998 Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement in addressing the situation of affected populations. Recognising that many countries lack the resources to fulfil their obligations towards disaster victims, the agency also calls on other states to act in accordance with the principle of international solidarity and burden-sharing by supporting and supplementing national response capacities.

In situations where climate change and natural disaster lead to cross-border population movements, we'll have to find mechanisms to ensure that the human rights and humanitarian needs of affected populations are addressed. If refugee status is deemed inapplicable - which might be the case in most instances - temporary stay or humanitarian residence arrangements may be an appropriate response. Specific measures to prevent and reduce statelessness may also be required.

See the rest of our World Refugee Day 2008 coverage

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