Sara Pantuliano is a research fellow and programme leader at the Overseas Development Institute. A political scientist, Sara has extensive experience in programming in conflict and post-conflict contexts.

The expulsion of 12 foreign aid agencies and one private development firm and the suspension of three national NGOs by the Sudanese government following the issuing of an international arrest warrant for President Bashir has generated widespread concerns about the potential impact of an interruption of aid on civilians at risk.

These concerns have, though, been largely limited to Darfur. Worryingly, very little attention has been focused on the repercussions these expulsions could have on the Three Areas (Abyei, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile) and the eastern region which have only recently emerged from conflict and remain highly volatile.

These areas should not be sidelined. Humanitarian indicators in the Three Areas remain a cause for concern, and political tensions are considerable, particularly in Southern Kordofan and Abyei, where clashes between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) in May 2008 displaced an estimated 60,000 civilians.

Socioeconomic recovery there has been slow following the signature of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the Government of Sudan and the SPLM (Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement) in 2005. The return of large numbers of IDPs from the North (an estimated 650,000 in Southern Kordofan alone) has further exacerbated pressure on already limited resources, services and infrastructure.

In Eastern Sudan, malnutrition indicators remain the highest in the country, with global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates exceeding emergency thresholds. Maternal and child mortality rates also remain unacceptably high.

The expulsions have left large parts of the Three Areas and Eastern Sudan without humanitarian assistance or recovery and reintegration support. Three of the largest organisations working in Abyei (Mercy Corps, PADCO and Save the Children US) have been directly affected as have five of the main aid providers in Southern Kordofan (CARE, Mercy Corps, NRC, PADCO and Save the Children US) as well as the Sudan Social Development Organisation (SUDO).

Similarly, in Eastern Sudan, three of the main aid providers in the region (IRC, Oxfam GB and Save the Children UK) have been asked to leave. These expulsions have deprived the East of critical food, livelihoods, livestock and medical assistance. In the Three Areas, they have halted major projects designed to support the implementation of the CPA through recovery, development and reconstruction activities.

Unlike in Darfur, there is very little additional capacity beyond the expelled agencies to even attempt to fill these gaps. The Three Areas have suffered from a lack of investment from donors and international agencies.

Increased resources had only recently been mobilised, largely as a result of mounting tension in the region and in the wake of the clashes in Abyei last year. The agencies expelled were the main recipients of these new funding flows. Their departure is likely to have a direct negative impact on ongoing efforts to promote peace and stability, especially in Abyei and Southern Kordofan, both through the provision of 'peace dividends' and reconciliation activities.

Tensions at the community level, particularly in former SPLM-administered areas and in Dar Misseriyya, are already high. These areas are not served or are underserved by the state Government of National Unity (GNU), and the withdrawal of services provided by departing NGOs will increase levels of frustration.

The decision to expel the international NGOs may also increase tensions between the ruling National Congress Party and the SPLM in these areas, as it appears that the latter was not consulted on the decision.

In Eastern Sudan the expulsion of Oxfam GB will deprive the Red Sea State of the technical capacity to support the Early Warning System that has been set up, raising concerns about the government's ability to predict and respond to crises in the east.

The expulsions are likely to have limited immediate impact on food assistance, provided that WFP is able to make arrangements for food distribution directly or through local partners. However, they will bring to a halt long-standing interventions aimed at addressing chronic food insecurity in both Red Sea and Kassala states.

The departure of the foreign aid agencies is also likely to have repercussions for the implementation of the almost moribund Eastern Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA) signed in 2006.

Recovery, livelihoods and nutrition programming in Agig and Tokar localities will stop, and the rehabilitation of former Eastern Front-controlled areas such as Hamashkoreb and Telkuk will be seriously hampered. As with the SPLM, the Eastern Front was not consulted about the expulsions. The Front, which is currently undergoing a political crisis, is likely to be further alienated from Eastern Sudan society, particularly youth, potentially fuelling fresh unrest.

The expulsions of the agencies have a wide range of implications for humanitarian and other forms of assistance in Sudan. The lack of attention to the East and in particular the Three Areas is concerning. The stakes in the latter areas are particularly high yet relatively little attention is being paid to the potential damage caused by the expulsions of agencies in these areas.

Whilst recognising the urgent need to address challenges of major agency exodus in Darfur, arguably a more systemic risk lies around the impact in the Three Areas. The international community should ensure that more emphasis is directed towards the fall out in these regions.

To read the ODI's full report on the expulsions, please click here

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