CRISIS PROFILE-Is Ivory Coast heading for all-out war?
By Katherine Arie
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Colonel Mangou, newly appointed army chief of Ivory Coast.
File photo by LUC GNAGO
Renewed violence is threatening to engulf Ivory Coast, and possibly its neighbours, in full-scale war, after government forces broke an 18-month ceasefire and bombed rebel strongholds in early November.
That prompted the U.N. to slap an arms embargo on the West African country. Security Council members unanimously backed a resolution proposed by France -- the former colonial power in Ivory Coast -- to prevent either government forces or the rebels, now called the New Forces (FN), importing new weapons from December 1, 2004.
France has 4,000 troops in the Ivory Coast supporting a 6,000 strong U.N. peace keeping force, which holds the line between the predominantly Christian government-controlled south and the mainly Muslim rebel-controlled north.
What triggered the latest violence?
Despite a power-sharing agreement brokered by the French in January 2003, the Ivorian government and the rebels failed to bury the hatchet.
Early in November, President Laurent Gbagbo, who accused the rebels of resisting disarmament, launched an all-out offensive against the FN.
Ivorian forces bombed a French peacekeeping base, killing nine French soldiers, which led to a retaliation in which the French virtually destroyed the tiny Ivorian air force.
Following demonstrations in support of President Gbagbo in the capital of Abidjan, anti-French hate messages were broadcast on government radio and television stations.
Six thousand foreigners and non-essential U.N. employees left the country after expatriates became a targete for rape attacks, mob violence, and the destruction of houses and buildings.
Some 10,000 Ivorians have spilled across the border to Liberia. Dozens of Ivorians were killed in clashes with French forces.
President Gbagbo and the French are now at a stand off -- Gbagbo has accused the French of encouraging the rebels to overthrow him -- and the government and the rebels are primed to return to civil war.
Wasn’t the Ivory Coast the most stable western African country?
Until the 1990s, Ivory Coast was a model of prosperity and peace, and the top cocoa grower in the world.
Ruled by the powerful southerners since independence in 1960, however, tensions between the north and the south had been brewing for some time, and a coup in 1999 exposed deep divisions along ethnic, political, and religious lines.
Claims of discrimination seemed to be born out when opposition politician Alassane Ouattara, a Muslim from the north, was excluded from the October 2000 election which propelled Gbagbo -- a Christian from the south -- to office.
Ouattara was barred from the race on grounds that he is a foreigner, a charge he denies.
Why is it so hard to decide who’s a foreigner?
Anyone whose parents were not born in Ivory Coast is considered foreign, and Ivorian law limits the political rights of residents who do not have 100 percent Ivorian heritage.
An attempted coup in 2002 generated a rash of nationalist movements that targeted Muslims, northerners and West African immigrants, many of whom work on cocoa and coffee farms, and harkened back to former President Henri Konan Bedie’s concept of a true Ivoirite, or Ivorianness.
Nearly one million West African immigrants in the south fled their homes for fear of their lives.
France presided over a power-sharing agreement signed in January 2003, which was meant to create a “government of unity”, but distrust and suspicion abounded on both sides.
In September 2003, the main rebel group, calling themselves New Forces (FN), pulled out of the government, accusing President Gbagbo of disingenuousness and intentionally delaying implementation of the peace agreement.
Changes in law concerning citizenship, agreed as part of the peace deal, were not adopted, and rebels, again, claimed discrimination.
How likely is the war to spread to other countries?
Concern that renewed violence could spill over into Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia prompted African leaders called an emergency crisis meeting of the African Union’s Peace and Security Council in Abuja, Nigeria.
The Council said restoration of peace was paramount, since Ivory Coast’s neighbours include two post-conflict states -- Liberia and Sierra Leone -- which are considered particularly fragile, and African leaders fear that violence in Ivory Coast could destabilise the region as a whole.
The chair of the Council, South Africa, has already been active in trying to negotiate an end to the violence.
South African President Thabo Mbeki has met with President Gbagbo and opposition political leaders, including Alassane Ouattara. But rebels have dug in and have pledged to continue their fight against Gbagbo.
FN rebel leader Guillaume Soro told Reuters said Gbagbo's "fascist regime" should be forced to cede power.
What is the humanitarian situation?
Aid agencies in the north have warned that unless power and water supplies are restored -- both were cut by the government before its offensive -- there will be a cholera outbreak.
The U.N. World Food Programme, which is providing food aid for 800,000 people in the north, said that the food security situation would deteriorate rapidly unless the violence is quelled.
The breakdown of health services has led to a recurrence of polio, which had been eradicated in the previous four years. The U.N. estimates that fewer than 50 percent of children are now reached by vaccination programmes.
Security is also impeding humanitarian work. Médecins Sans Frontières evacuated 15 members of its international staff, and the International Committee of the Red Cross, which has been assisting the injured in Abidjan and in the north, said that its workers have been targeted.
But the worst could still be to come.
How could it get worse?
The U.N. has warned that if the situation gets worse, more than 1.5 million Africans living in Ivory Coast would leave their homes.
It said that up to 700,000 people would be displaced within Ivory Coast and another 650,000 would return to neighbouring countries, particularly Burkina Faso and Mali, which do not have the resources to deal with such large numbers of refugees.
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