The Centre for Research on Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) in Brussels, which analysed statistical data for the World Disaster Report 2001, says that while the number of people directly affected by disasters is definitely on the rise, the total number of disaster events in the world may not be.
In the statistical analysis carried out by CRED for the World Disaster Report 2001, it notes that in 1990, 87 million were affected by natural disasters in poor countries. In 2000, the comparable number was 255 million, bringing the decade total to almost 2 billion. The numbers affected represent a increase of 185 percent compared to an increase of just over 30 percent in the number of reported events in these same countries. Disasters are considered "mega" because of the size of the population they affect, not because of the Richter scale or the Beaufort wind intensity reading. Numbers of natural disasters vary because countries have split. For example, the same river flood is now reported by three separate countries of the former Soviet Union instead of one. Similarly, the same cyclone sweeping through the entire Caribbean is recorded for 94 islands as separate disasters. As a result, CRED claims that a 30 percent increase may not represent a real or substantial increase in numbers of events. But a 185 percent increase in people affected is an alarming trend that is likely to continue into the future."By pointing a finger at uncontrollable natural events, we draw attention away from the fact that inequitable distribution of resources are forcing more and more people to live in risky areas," says Debarati Guha-Sapir, Director of CRED and Professor at University of Louvain Department of Public Health. "Disaster prevention and preparation must move out of the humanitarian agenda into the development framework."Remote causes such as indiscriminate logging or desertification, access to roads and markets force people to move and settle in risky areas in around cities. In addition, concentration of resources in urban areas, lack of schools and health centres in rural areas push families to move into slums or other areas to seek economic opportunity. People live in riverbeds, gorges, volcanic slopes and exposed lands to be near public facilities and economic centres. Inadequate development programming does not give them a choice. In 1980, the population of Bhuj, India, was a third of what it was on January 26, 2001, when the earthquake hit. Over the past 20 years, people from rural hinterlands have moved in droves. This year, most of the estimated 30,000 deaths occurred in the city, creating a mega-disaster. In 1980, this may not have been the case. Similarly, floods in the outskirts of Dhaka would have affected perhaps 250, 000 people in 1980. Today, the number would be closer to 1 million. "By analysing the trends in the data for the last 20 years, we may be able to control deaths from disasters, but people affected will continue to rise in the absence of a coherent risk management component in development programming," says Guha-Sapir. "Humanitarian aid programming does not address the long-term sustainability of regions and populations."CRED also studies wider policy issues related to civil conflicts, focusing at this time on health of children in conflict. It runs training programmes, both at university level and to mid-career professionals on health and humanitarian aid.
