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A Middle East truce will need a plan to back it up
28 Jun 2002
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    Mariano Aguirre, director of the Madrid-based Centre for Peace Studies, writes that without a concrete plan on the horizon, neither Palestinian nor Israeli society is going to believe in a ceasefire and peace is not possible without the backing of both.

    In April Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon rejected a request from U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell to withdraw from occupied Palestinian cities.

    His decision was consistent with the goal of the offensive, namely to destroy the infrastructure of a possible Palestinian state, dismember the top ranks of power surrounding President Yasser Arafat and assassinate potential politicians from the younger generation who might replace him.

    The elimination of Palestinian terrorist networks is a relatively low objective, although it is the one that the Israeli government puts on the front pages, since Sharon knows that suicide bomb attacks not only are going to continue but will be encouraged by his military offensive.

    Powell is trying to get Israel to halt its attacks because Sharon has crossed a dangerous line that could seriously affect his country's relations with the Arab world, with Europe and even the United States in the near future.

    In fact, the Israeli government has not only broken off with the Palestinian Authority but has also rejected Saudi Arabia's peace plan, and has managed to goad the ever-cautious European Union into a more radical position by refusing to receive Javier Solana -- the High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy in Brussels -- so that the European Parliament approved an unconnected resolution to revise its preferential export agreement with Israel, and the German government to revise its arms sale policy to Israel.

    "The problem facing the United States and the European Union is that there will be no way out of this crisis until they progress from short-term proposals to essential diplomacy"

    At the same time, media outlets such as the New York Times criticise Sharon's policies as an affront to Washington.

    The problem facing the United States and the European Union is that there will be no way out of this crisis until they progress from short-term proposals to essential diplomacy.

    The Oslo process was based on moving forward step by step, without setting out the final results on questions such as the creation of a Palestinian state, the return of four million Palestinian refugees, the status of Jerusalem and what to do with the Israeli settlers on Palestinian lands. It was a failure.

    The Palestinian Authority cannot control the violence carried out by radical groups critical of Arafat until it can present Palestinian society with a tight political and economic plan.

    That is, until it can say: "We have a state, we are independent, we have international assistance and investment and for the first 20 years an international U.N. force will guarantee that we will not be invaded or destroyed. The refugees can return or claim compensation. Israeli settlers will leave our lands within a set time and will be compensated. Jerusalem will be an international city -- the east will be the capital of our state and the west will belong to the state of Israel. In exchange for all this we have to guarantee Israel's safety and count on backing for this project from the rest of the Arab states."

    Israel also needs to be certain of its safety and the main guarantee will be the international force that will gradually be reduced over two decades as the situation stabilises. The two states will cooperate to control terrorism, assuming the violence by armed groups does not stop in the short term and that it will be necessary to live with it.

    Arafat can negotiate an agreement along these lines before his death. Sharon will not do it. But if the United States and the European Union start to press for the suspension of trading agreements and arms sales, and simultaneously to promote an agreement to guarantee peace and security, then perhaps Israeli society will change its current prime minister for one who is prepared to make a deal.

    All this calls for a considerable sum of money, but the European Union has already invested a lot and could invest more if it were viable. At the same time, the United States spends enormous sums on military assistance to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and other countries. Channelling funds to the Middle East is intelligent and necessary investment.

    Without a concrete plan on the horizon, neither Palestinian nor Israeli society is going to believe in a ceasefire. And peace is not possible without the backing of both, because one will support further terrorism against Israel and the other will legitimise new invasions of Palestinian cities.


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