TROPICAL STORM RISK

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Track and windspeed of Intense tropical cyclone Jaya

Intense tropical cyclone Jaya struck Madagascar as a tropical cyclone at about 18:00 GMT on 3 April. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall was near 14.9 S, 48.5 E. Jaya brought 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 120 km/h (74 mph). Wind gusts in the area may have been considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Jaya's strength (category 1) at landfall includes:

• Storm surge generally 1.2-1.5 metres (4-5 feet) above normal.
• No real damage to building structures.
• Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees.
• Some damage to poorly constructed signs.
• Some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Benfield, Royal & SunAlliance, Crawford & Company and University College London (UCL). TSR acknowledges the support of the UK Met Office.