The situation in Djibouti remains critical due to consecutive poor rains, high staple food prices since November 2007, high levels of livestock mortality, and conflict. As a result, levels of malnutrition likely remain above emergency levels, drinking water is scarce and poor households have begun skipping meals. In addition to the need for both food and non-food aid through March 2009, resources for nutritional surveys are critically needed.

In the most likely scenario the October-February rains will be normal, but will be insufficient for the regeneration of pasture and browse. Therefore pastoralist areas will remain highly to extremely food insecure. However, this food insecurity will be mitigated by some declines in food prices and ongoing and improved humanitarian assistance.

In the worst-case scenario, the October to February will fail, leading to further increases in livestock mortality and destitution among poor pastoral households. The prices of staple foods will continue to increase and unemployment will remain high, further limiting the purchasing power of poor urban households. As a result, the number of households facing extreme food insecurity will increase.

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