As Pakistan approaches the one-year anniversary of the earthquake that devastated its northern region in October 2005, time is running out for the thousands of individuals and families destined to face another winter without adequate shelter and support. Efforts to plan for their care have been hampered by imperfect and often conflicting information about the numbers and location of the most vulnerable, as well as a lack of consensus on whether the need for emergency assistance even exists. Based on its most recent assessment mission to the region, however, Refugees International believes that there is still time to avert the potential of another winter emergency through pre-positioning supplies and the immediate development of a plan to provide safe shelter and basic services.
While many of the organizations recently visited by RI professed a focus on the needs of the "most vulnerable," without exception none was able to say how many of those affected by the earthquake actually fell into this category. More alarming is the fact that there exists no official count of those classified as most vulnerable by the Pakistan Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), the government entity established to oversee the recovery effort. The broad, unofficial estimate is that there are at least 40,000 people remaining in official and makeshift camps and that an additional 60,000 people may be forced down from the mountains by the weather.
Some Pakistani civil authorities, while struggling with lack of capacity, are taking steps to prepare for the coming winter. Others are refusing to even acknowledge the need for such planning. Throughout its visit in August and early September, Refugees International frequently heard that "the mountain people are tough" or "they made it through last winter, they will be fine this winter." ERRA and international agencies have a responsibility to insure that such views, even if true, are not allowed to serve as substitutes for proper emergency planning. Dependence on the resilience of the population is not a response strategy.
In response to the death of over 75,000 people, the displacement of 3.5 million, and the destruction of as many as 400,000 households, the Government of Pakistan announced an ambitious program of compensation and rebuilding subsidies for the people in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and Azad Jammu Kashmir (AJK). These regions are very mountainous, and poverty, land tenancy, and other social issues have marginalized many of the residents for generations. As a new entity established at the national level with close ties to the military, ERRA has a tenuous relationship with local and regional government structures. International organizations had little experience in some of the affected areas prior to the earthquake.
Fluctuating ERRA policies on housing reconstruction have compounded the impact of these realities. At the urging of the World Bank, ERRA several months ago replaced the existing reconstruction policy allowing homes to be rebuilt with timber and other salvaged materials with one that stated only homes constructed out of cement and steel would be eligible for reconstruction payments. This change immediately forced home owners to use more costly materials not available locally, and would have required the re-training of hundreds of inspectors involved in the compensation certification process.
In the face of strong opposition from the recovery community, ERRA within the past several weeks reversed its position, and will now again permit the use of wood in meeting earthquake-resistant construction standards, while continuing to advocate strongly for the use of cement. While RI sees this as a positive sign that ERRA is willing to reconsider policies and procedures, the confusion caused by this and other policy changes has only served to exacerbate the other problems plaguing the housing reconstruction process, and have contributed to delaying the recovery effort. Further, it is unclear that there are adequate resources to fund the rebuilding costs. The result is that an estimated 80 % of the people displaced by the earthquake have not begun rebuilding their homes.
The continued inability to effectively get the word out concerning the most basic recovery issues --- how the rebuilding scheme works, building designs and standards, the variety of individual benefits and how to access them --- has created an atmosphere of rumors and half-truths across the affected area, and has contributed to a widespread erosion of confidence in the recovery program at the local level. Working with UN Habitat, the agency responsible for disseminating housing reconstruction information, ERRA must be more aggressive in insuring that the likely beneficiaries of the recovery programs are fully aware of their rights, and that those responsible for the implementation of recovery programs are operating from a uniform set of policies and guidelines.
Refugees International believes that all elements of the community must be enlisted in the effort, not simply those directly involved in the recovery program. Teachers, especially women, often commute daily from their urban homes to schools in rural areas where the level of recovery information is at its lowest. As such, they could serve as an effective conduit thorough which ERRA-produced information posters, pamphlets, and fliers could flow to the parents of their students. Similarly, RI observed a significant increase in the number of construction and delivery trucks on highways throughout the affected area, even in the more remote villages. Yet these have not been effectively utilized as a means to bring information materials to these remote and underserved areas accessible by road.
The negative economic impacts suffered by communities as a result of rebuilding delays are mounting daily. Family members who prior to the earthquake had worked elsewhere in Pakistan, a year later continue to sit idle in their home villages, awaiting the opportunity to rebuild. Speeding up the rebuilding process will therefore not only get people back into their homes, but allow people to return to their income-producing jobs
Many survivors lost or never had personal identification and land ownership documentation, leaving thousands of applicants in limbo and unable to rebuild their lives. Support to improve the government's ability to address these gaps has recently been provided and improvements in administrative capacity may result. The government must enforce rules to prevent people being forced to make any form of payment to government officials for routine paperwork. The country-wide problems of landlessness and tenancy are especially severe in the NWFP, where the physical and social dislocation of tens of thousands of individuals may take place unless the government aggressively addresses these issues.
Urban recovery continues to be a complex and ongoing challenge. While significant progress at clearing rubble has been made in Muzaffarabad, a comprehensive plan for the relocation of the destroyed city of Balakot has yet to be developed. Local governments and ERRA continue to be plagued by staff shortages, and civilian authorities throughout the region highlighted to RI their lack of key engineering, management, and inspection personnel. Meanwhile, plans for pre-fabricated transitional housing have fallen through, necessitating a scramble to find alternative solutions.
Refugees International therefore recommends that:
The government immediately develop and implement a comprehensive emergency winter plan focused on the most vulnerable, particularly those likely to be forced down from the mountains.
ERRA, in conjunction with international agencies, immediately establish an accurate accounting of the location, number, and status of those deemed most vulnerable under international standards, and plan and implement a comprehensive assistance program to address their needs.
ERRA, along with its partner UN Habitat, continue to improve the dissemination of recovery and reconstruction information. Those affected by the earthquake must have a clear understanding of their rights under the recovery program, and their access to information in support of those rights must be guaranteed.
The issues identified by the NGO working group led by Oxfam, Sungi, and 20 other organizations be used as a starting point for dialogue between ERRA, other elements of the Pakistani government, local NGOs and outside organizations to develop a specific recovery plan to be implemented in the spring of 2007.
ERRA, along with the municipal and provincial authorities, clarify urban planning and shelter guidelines, particularly those affecting transitional shelter for this coming winter and beyond. Renewed emphasis must be placed on planning for the development of Muzaffarabad and Balakot.
Director of Operations Michael McIntyre and consultant Timothy G. Connolly assessed the earthquake recovery situation in Pakistan in August.
[ Any views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not of Reuters. ]
