PREVIEW-President's heir seeks top job in Armenia vote
14 Feb 2008 23:44:16 GMT Source: Reuters
By Hasmik Mkrtchyan YEREVAN, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Armenia votes next week in a presidential election that is likely to transfer power from outgoing President Robert Kocharyan to his trusted ally and prime minister Serzh Sarksyan. Opposition parties already allege the campaign is unfair, setting up Tuesday's election to be a test for stability in a country that has only in the last few years recovered from a period of political convulsions. Nestled high in the Caucasus mountains, Armenia is in a region that is emerging as a vital transit route for oil exports from the Caspian Sea to energy-hungry world markets, though it has no pipelines of its own. The energy flows could be threatened, analysts warn, if an unresolved conflict with neighbouring Azerbaijan flares again into fighting. A dispute between Armenia and its other neighbour, Turkey, complicates Ankara's relations with the West. Opinion polls give Sarksyan, 53, a lead over the rest of the field, including former speaker of parliament Artur Baghdasaryan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the previous president who was forced to resign in 1998 but is now seeking a comeback. Most observers predict that if Sarksyan is elected, his rule will be, in most aspects, a continuation of Kocharyan's 10 years in office that have been marked by economic growth and firm stands toward Azerbaijan and Turkey. "Our candidate is the only one with an exceptional chance to win in the first round," said Armen Ashotyan, a lawmaker with Sarksyan's Republican Party. "If he wins, naturally a continuation of the policy direction will be ensured." Sarksyan's victory though is not guaranteed. "There is serious competition going on," said analyst Alexander Iskanderyan. LONG PARTNERSHIP Close associates for over 20 years, both Kocharyan and Sarksyan are from Nagorno-Karabakh, a region of oil-producing Azerbaijan whose ethnic Armenian population broke away in a 1990s war. They worked side by side to lead the separatist forces, then transferred their partnership to the Armenian capital. Kocharyan, also 53, is constitutionally barred from serving a third consecutive term. He is expected to remain influential, but he has refused to disclose what role he will take until his replacement is inaugurated. Some commentators have predicted Kocharyan could become prime minister, mimicking the arrangement in nearby Russia where outgoing President Vladimir Putin has said he may serve as prime minister if his protege Dmitry Medvedev wins the presidency. "The intrigue of the election in Armenia is where Kocharyan will go and who will be the prime minister," Gevorg Pogosyan, an independent analyst, told Reuters. Voters credit Kocharyan -- and by association Sarksyan -- with overseeing strong economic growth. Gross domestic product grew last year by 13.7 percent. Once blighted by power blackouts, capital Yerevan is now enjoying a construction boom. Sarksyan's election chances are boosted by the fact the opposition has failed to unite around a single candidate. Previous votes in Armenia have been followed by mass opposition protests alleging ballot fraud, and observers say more are possible after Tuesday's vote. Armenia is Moscow's only firm ally in a region where Russia and the West are competing for influence. It is home to a Russian military base and Russian firms control a significant chunk of the Armenian economy. Relations with Turkey are fraught in part because Ankara refuses to recognise as genocide the killings of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey in the early part of the last century. (Writing by Margarita Antidze; Editing by Charles Dick)
Police carry the body of a man killed during an exchange of fire between gunmen and police in the township of Lykovskaya in North Ossetia February 13, 2008. One police officer ...
