By David Lewis KINSHASA, Oct 30 (Reuters) - As Congo awaits the results of its elections, the ravaged country's future depends on the two candidates controlling their private armies and international peacekeepers stepping in fast to curb trouble. The period before and after results are announced will remain tense and risks degenerating, analysts and diplomats said, a day after millions voted in an election meant to end a decade of war and chaos. Sunday's poll between incumbent President Joseph Kabila and Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba, a former rebel, was the last stage in years of negotiations following Democratic Republic of Congo's 1998-2003 war. The conflict sparked a humanitarian crisis that has killed four million people, with 1,200 still dying every day. Results have begun trickling in but so have rumours about who is winning. Analysts say it will take careful management to avoid clashes between former belligerents, who still have private armies in the capital. "By and large, the political parties have observed the rules of the game. Now it's up to them to respect the results as they have committed themselves to do," Ross Mountain, deputy head of the U.N. peacekeeping mission, told Reuters. Following fighting in August that killed more than 30 people as first round results emerged, both camps have vowed to limit their soldiers' movements. The U.N., which has some 17,600 troops in Congo, has convinced Kabila and Bemba to sign commitments to follow the democratic process and respect the rights of the loser. But, with so much at stake and widespread reports that both sides have re-armed recently, some analysts are sceptical. "I don't believe these declarations. The signatures are symbolic -- it doesn't mean they will give up the logic of war," said Bob Kabamba, a Congolese politics professor. Initial results confirmed Kabila's popularity in his native Swahili-speaking east while Bemba, as expected, is far ahead in Kinshasa, which speaks his Lingala language. Kabila is favourite to win after taking 45 percent in the first round. Fears of violence are tangible in the teeming capital, a Bemba stronghold, where many loathe the president and accuse him of selling off the country's vast wealth. Kabamba said Bemba's strong showing in the capital will ease tensions initially and election officials will work as fast as possible to publish results to prevent speculation. "But that doesn't mean there won't be serious trouble if Bemba is not elected," Kabamba said. INCREASE DETERRENCE The United Nations has its largest peacekeeping mission in Congo and it is backed by over 1,300 European Union soldiers, sent to secure the capital during the elections. After the August clashes, when they reacted slowly, the international forces are under pressure to intervene immediately, should either candidate use violence to challenge the process, which has already cost over $500 million. "The message has to be very clear that if anyone contests the elections through force, the international community will not accept it and see them as a pariah," said Jason Stearns, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank. Stearns said peacekeepers must step up deterrence measures, such as increasing military patrols in the capital, because trouble would be difficult to stop once it started. "If violence does break out, they need to intervene quickly and prevent other forces from joining the fray," he told Reuters.
