(For a story on the reaction of rubber traders and farmers in the region, click on [ID:nBKK76991]) (Adds reaction) By Darren Schuettler BANGKOK, July 18 (Reuters) - Thailand feared a spike in violence in its Muslim deep south on Friday after an unknown rebel group announced a "ceasefire" dismissed by analysts as a hoax likely to enrage real fighters on the ground. The surprise announcement by the Thailand United Southern Underground on Thursday was rubbished by security experts who said its leaders had no influence in the region, where more than 3,000 people have been killed since 2004. "It's a hoax and it could make matters much worse," Sunai Phasuk of Human Rights Watch told Reuters. "People in the south are angry and depressed. They expect there will be more attacks because local rebel commanders will take it as an insult to their struggle," he said. In Yala, one of three southernmost provinces where Malay Muslims are in the majority, 24-year-old shoe seller Deena doubted peace was finally coming to the region. "There are so many groups running around, I won't believe anything right away. I can only pray to God for peace," she said. The shadowy rebels have never revealed themselves publicly or claimed responsibility for the near daily bomb and gun attacks in the major rubber-producing region bordering Malaysia. Three hours after the ceasefire was broadcast by the group on Thai TV, rebels wounded one soldier in an ambush in Yala. "We won't let our guard down because of that ceasefire claim," army spokesman Colonel Acra Tiproch said of the 30,000 soldiers and police fighting the low-level insurgency. Army chief General Anupong Paochinda identified the group's leader as Malipeng Khan, a separatist active in the 1980s who had failed to unify insurgent factions. He said Bangkok would not negotiate with any group "regarded as criminals." "DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH" Separatist rebels waged a low-level guerrilla war in the densely forested region throughout the 1970s and 1980s, but their campaign petered out in the 1990s after an amnesty offer. That struggle was dominated by groups such as the Pattani United Liberation Organisation (PULO), largely dormant since the 1980s, with some of its leaders now living abroad. The old guard has been replaced by a new generation of rebel leaders and groups such as the BRN Coordinate, which analysts say is most responsible for the current violence. "Don't hold your breath. This is not the real deal," U.S. professor and security expert Zachary Abuza wrote on a blog. "Members of PULO have attempted to speak on behalf of the insurgents and negotiate with the government in the past. This has always led to a spike in violence and attacks on the previous generation of militants." Thailand's Nation newspaper, which published a story headlined "Hope or Hoax", quoted a PULO official as saying they knew nothing of the men who announced the ceasefire on Thai TV. Bangkok has flirted with talks with separatist groups before, but most analysts saw no pressure on the rebels to accept an unconditional ceasefire while Thai security forces struggle to find a strategy to stop the violence. Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's flip-flopping between heavy-handed crackdowns and offers of millions of dollars in development aid to one of Thailand's poorest regions failed to calm the region. After Thaksin was ousted in a 2006 coup, then Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont apologised for Thaksin's iron-fist approach, but his "hearts and minds" campaign had little impact either. (Additional reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat and Nopporn Wong-Anan; Editing by Alex Richardson)
Soldiers from Thailand patrol the Cekakiri Svarak pagoda in the Preah Vihaer temple compound, along the Thai-Cambodian border July 18, 2008. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen said on Thursday a border ...
