SCENARIOS-What's in store for politically riven Thailand?
28 Nov 2008 09:40:46 GMT Source: Reuters
By Darren Schuettler BANGKOK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Protesters laying siege to Bangkok's two airports braced for a battle with security forces on Friday after the government declared a state of emergency to end a blockade threatening to cripple the economy. Leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) have refused to end their siege of Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports, which has cut Bangkok's air links to the outside world. All flights are cancelled, leaving thousands of tourists stranded, disrupting exports worth tens of millions of dollars a day, and tarnishing Thailand's image as a "Land of Smiles". The airport blockades are the latest twist in the PAD's six-month campaign to unseat an elected government it accuses of being a puppet of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup and lives in exile. Somchai, Thaksin's brother-in-law, has refused to quit, but policy-making has been paralysed, intensifying concerns about the export-driven economy's ability to cope with a global recession. The following scenarios examine what might happen next (for latest story, click on [ID:nSP351026]): NEGOTIATE A WAY OUT - Police began talks with PAD leaders on Friday to try to end the sit-ins peacefully. Whether the PAD will take these negotiations seriously is doubtful. Their leaders have said previously that Somchai must resign before any serious talks can begin. The PAD's intention is to trigger a military coup and anarchy is its main weapon. POLICE STORM AIRPORTS - Police have gone out of their way to avoid a fight with the PAD this week, mindful of the hundreds injured in last month's clashes outside parliament. Evicting the protesters by force is the "last step", a police negotiator said on Friday. It would probably be bloody. PAD "security guards", armed with clubs, scythes and golf clubs, are dug in behind barricades of fire trucks, luggage trolleys and razor wire. PAD leaders deny their members are armed, but television footage of two PAD militants firing pistols at government supporters this week suggests otherwise. PAD BACKS DOWN The PAD has never backed down in its six-month campaign, which has seen the movement occupy Government House since August, disrupt parliamentary sessions at will, and defy court orders. But the movement's backers may be getting nervous. "The longer this crisis goes on, the more exposed and compromised the PAD's backers have become. And the PAD is continually dragging them down to the cut-and-thrust of Thai politics to their own detriment," Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University wrote this week. The PAD, an alliance of businessmen, academics and activists says it gets 1 million baht ($28,000) a day from the public. Analysts suspect it is also bankrolled by anti-Thaksin business interests, parts of the army and palace figures. MILITARY COUP It's never wise to rule out a coup in a country that has had, on average, one successful or attempted putsch every four years since the end of absolute monarchy 76 years ago. Army chief Anupong Paochinda again suggested Somchai should quit this week, but insisted he was not putting pressure on the prime minister. Anupong has repeatedly said he will not seize control, and the army could face a violent backlash from supporters of the elected administration. But some top-ranking officers do not agree with Anupong, as shown by the coup rumours swirling in Bangkok on Thursday. KING INTERVENES - Regarded as semi-divine by many, King Bhumibol Adulyadej carries huge informal political clout and in six decades on the throne has intervened in several disputes, favouring both elected and military administrations. However, the 80-year-old has stepped in previously only after major bloodshed, and his advancing years and deteriorating health raise doubts about his ability to calm any new outburst. (Editing by Alan Raybould and David Fox)
A man gestures from the window of a bus in Bangkok November 21, 2008. Thailand's public sector unions will begin a nationwide strike on Tuesday unless the government quits, union leaders ...
