SCENARIOS-What next after India presents Mumbai evidence?
07 Jan 2009 07:37:46 GMT Source: Reuters
By Simon Denyer NEW DELHI, Jan 7 (Reuters) - India presented a dossier of material to Pakistan this week which it said showed that Pakistani militants carried out the November attacks in Mumbai that killed 179 people. It wants Pakistan to investigate fully the leads in the dossier and help bring those responsible for planning and coordinating the attacks to justice in India. Britain and the United States have joined India in blaming the banned Islamist group Lashkar-e-Taiba for carrying out the attacks. The Hindu newspaper has published a scanned copy of the dossier on its website (http://www.hindu.com/nic/dossier.htm). A more complete dossier of material has also been given to countries who lost nationals in the attacks. Pakistan says it is examining the material. The question now is how it will respond, and how India will view that response. PAKISTAN INVESTIGATES FULLY, DISMANTLES LASHKAR'S OPERATION Pakistan has already said it would not hand over any of its nationals to face trial in India. But it could mount a full investigation and a credible series of trials in its own country, and make a meaningful effort to close down the operations of Lashkar-e-Taiba and its sister organisation Jamaat-ud-Dawa, recently declared a terrorist group by the United Nations. That might be enough to satisfy India of the good intentions of the civilian government and allow the peace process to revive. However, elements within the Pakistani military see groups like Lashkar -- set up in the 1980s to fight Indian rule in Kashmir -- as an important weapon against India in the event of future conflict, or to keep up the pressure for a resolution of the Kashmir dispute. It is unlikely this weapon will be surrendered easily, nor is it obvious Pakistan can fully control groups like this any more. PAKISTAN MOUNTS A TRIAL BUT LEAVES LASHKAR INTACT If the evidence is overwhelming and international pressure consistent, Pakistan might be forced to stage a trial of one or two senior Lashkar figures. But it might allow the organisation to continue to function, perhaps under a changed name, and leave what India calls "the infrastructure of terror" more or less intact. It is also unlikely to take action against current or former members of its military intelligence agency, the ISI -- if indeed any of them were involved in the attack. Such a strategy might deflect international pressure but would not satisfy the government in New Delhi. That means a continued uneasy stand-off between the nuclear-armed rivals in South Asia. PAKISTAN TAKES NO ACTION, OR THERE IS ANOTHER ATTACK If Pakistan decides the evidence is insufficient to mount a prosecution, or if Lashkar mounts another attack on Indian soil, tempers in New Delhi are bound to be inflamed. At that point, analysts say, all bets are off. Some believe India will still not mount any military action against Pakistan, because it would be counterproductive, play into the hands of hawks and extremists, and undermine India's claim to the moral high ground. Others say India might be forced to carry out some kind of symbolic military strike to assuage public opinion in an election year, even if realises it is not in its long-term interests. (Editing by Alistair Scrutton and Paul Tait)
India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (R) and Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee attend a conference of chief ministers of Indian states on internal security in New Delhi January 6, 2009. Singh accused ...
