By Bappa Majumdar NEW DELHI, July 10 (Reuters) - The fate of India's ruling coalition may be in the hands of small parties and independent lawmakers after the withdrawal of its communist allies and signs of revolt amongst its newest supporters. After the exit of the four leftist parties to protest against a nuclear deal with the United States, the government will probably call a vote of confidence in the 543-member parliament this month. It must win that vote to avoid an early election. The ruling coalition has secured the support of the regional Samajwadi Party (SP), which has 39 lawmakers, to replace the communists, but it still needs the support of some smaller parties to reach the majority 272 seats in parliament. The complications for the Congress-led coalition can be highlighted by the fact it must ensure the support of lawmakers from scores of parties in a house representing more than 1 billion people, including dozens of ethnic groups and castes. "To save one deal, the Congress party now has to enter so many deals, which is very unfortunate," said Pran Chopra, a political analyst. "Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, has faltered badly in coming to this arrangement with the small parties so far." Signs of how hard it could be were underscored after 10 SP lawmakers stayed away from a key meeting of the party this week. Some were Muslim MPs who were reportedly worried that support for nuclear deal with the United States could lose them votes. The Congress government is keen to press ahead with a civilian nuclear co-operation deal with the United States, and is confident of surviving a vote of confidence in parliament. The ruling central coalition has 226 members and needs 46 more for a majority. The bulk will come from the SP, which has 39 lawmakers and has said it will support the government. "We have the numbers and after talking to our friends, we are confident that we will clear the trust vote easily," Veerappa Moily, a senior Congress leader said. UNDECIDED PARTIES But there are undecided parties such as the Kerala Congress with two lawmakers, Mizo National Front with one, Trinamul Congress with one and four independents that the Congress party is banking on. Mizoram lawmaker Vanlalzawna, has not decided whether to support the Congress, neither has Mamata Banerjee, the lone Trinamul Congress lawmaker. Congress is also looking at MPs from the remote Himalayan region of Ladakh and northeastern Manipur, among others. "It will definitely be difficult to get the support of these small groups and individuals easily, as they will have their own wishlists and concerns," said Amulya Ganguli, a political commentator. Experts have also said independents will be afraid of losing their votebank because of the widespread criticism faced by the government for failing to control inflation. The Congress party has lost a string of state polls this year. "Issues like rising food prices will always be on the back of their mind and many of these parties will decide at the last moment," Ganguli added. The Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, the main opposition party, the Communists and other parties are trying their best to deter small political groups from entering into an alliance with Congress. Indian media reported that the regional Bahujan Samaj Party, a party opposing the government, was negotiating with at least four Congress lawmakers to join against the government. "Things do not augur well for anyone, neither for the parties nor for the state... whether the government survives or not depends how brilliantly or foolishly the deals are made," Mohammed Selim, a Communist leader said. "The dice is set against the Congress and despite the horse trading they might just lose the vote of confidence," Prakash Javdekar, a senior BJP leader added. (Editing by Alistair Scrutton and Alex Richardson) (For the latest Reuters news on India see: http://in.reuters.com , for blogs see http://blogs.reuters.com/in/.)
India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh listens to Mexico's President Felipe Calderon during a briefing in Sapporo, on Japan's northern island of Hokkaido, July 8, 2008. Singh said on Tuesday he did ...
