FEWS NET Watch Alert for S. Sudan, published Feb 9 2007SOUTHERN SUDAN
Food Security Watch February 9, 2007Civil insecurity, population returns threaten food securityFood security has been
stable since last October's harvest in northern parts of southern Sudan. However, food security conditions are likely to deteriorate in areas affected by civil insecurity and population
resettlement, including Aweil East, West, North and South counties in Northern Bahr El Gazal State, Gogrial County in Warrap State and Wuror, Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties in Jonglei State
(Figure 1). Structural food deficits will begin to affect poor and recently resettled households in these areas in April 2007.Figure 1. Southern Sudan areas of
concern
Source: FEWS NETIn Gogrial County, inter-ethnic conflict
limited access to agricultural lands during the last cropping season, reversing temporary gains in food security. In Diror, Pulchol and Nyirol counties, the Government of South Sudan's 2006
disarmament process has increased households' vulnerability to cattle raids from neighboring Pibor County, and tensions persist following recent civil insecurity in Zeraf Island and escalating unrest
in Khorfulus County.Civil insecurity has also increased in Central and Eastern Equatoria states, where Uganda's Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) has been active since the early 1990s. While
it is unclear whether the LRA is engaging in the attacks, insecurity has increased with the stalling Ugandan peace process. These attacks have resulted in an unknown number of deaths and the
destruction of assets such as vehicles. This insecurity is constraining movement, affecting households that are reliant on labor to access food and severely constraining trade between Sudan and
Uganda.Large-scale population returns linked to the census scheduled for November 2007 could also have a negative affect on food security in southern Sudan. Of an estimated 4 million
southern Sudanese in northern Sudan, 500,000 could return for the census, the first since 1993. A return of this magnitude will overload the already limited capacities that exist to accommodate
returnees, and competition for scarce labor opportunities and off-farm food resources, such as fish and wild foods, may cause conflicts. The impact of returnees will be felt most in the densely
populated areas of Northern Bahr El Gazal and Warrap states (Gogrial and Twic counties), where the World Food Program estimates that 545,000 people are already food insecure. There are also
about 250,000 Sudanese refugees in northern Uganda. If a significant proportion of these refugees return to Central Equatoria (Juba, Magwi, Torit and Kajokeji counties), this could further
worsen food security conditions, where an estimated 150,000 people are already at risk of food insecurity.
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