FEWS NET Monthly Report for Guatemala covering the period Nov 2006 to Dec 2006.
GUATEMALA Food Security Update December
2006
ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY
Introduction
Food security remains stable. Maize production in the postrera harvest reached record levels, and production in the 2005/06
agricultural cycle increased by 13 percent over the previous agricultural cycle. There were agricultural losses in different areas of the country due to frosts (see Map 2 below), but the
Ministerio de Agricultura, Ganader?a y Alimentaci?n (MAGA, Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Nutrition) is providing seeds and fertilizer, and no food security impact is expected. The
increase in the price of yellow maize continues and could affect industries that use maize as an input, resulting in potential higher prices of pork, chicken and eggs.
Frosts in highland areas may affect the production of roots, tubers and vegetables and local health conditions.
The
rains in Izabal may affect the staple cereal harvest.
Weather and
food security situation
The 2005/06 cycle was a good agricultural year. Maize production increased by 13 percent over the previous year due to
improvements in yield, which increased from an average of 2.13 metric tons per hectare in 2004/05 to 2.33 metric tons in 2005/06. This was achieved by technical improvements in the agricultural
practices of small producers and also improvement in seeds. In the dry zones, the availability of a maize variety more resistant to water stress has resulted in better yields. Smallholder
maize producers have increased their yields as a result of the new seed varieties, benefiting their households' food security situation. Bean production remained the same as the previous
agricultural cycle. There have not been significant improvements in bean seeds, as imported beans are more competitive than nationally produced beans.Household production is important
source of household consumption for most of the poor population. There are nine livelihood zones in which more than 50 percent of the food consumed by households is derived from own production
(see Map 1). The importance of production for income generation is less (up to a maximum of 20 percent), and most poor households do not sell but use their whole production for their own
consumption.Map 1: Percentage of production used for own consumption in poor households, per livelihood zone
Source: MFEWS and partners 2005 Livelihoods StudyThis agriculture year's good
harvest will allow subsistence producers to have enough food stocks, which could lessen the impact of the maize price increase. At the same time, there is the risk that they will sell their
current harvest given the high prices. The increasing price trend may then continue, resulting in insufficient access to maize because they did not save for their own consumption. This
process should be monitored by the food security programs carried out in the country.Despite the good postrera harvest, there were localized losses. December brought lower temperatures
than November, which affected Chimaltenango's and Sacatepequez's harvest of vegetables for export (see Map 2). MAGA is providing support with supplies to sow the vegetables again, and an impact
on food security from these losses is not expected. Besides, the households that cultivate for exportation are not the poorest in their communities. The cost to sow a cuerda (1 cuerda =
3.929.52 m2) of zucchini is 5,000 quetzals, while sowing a cuerda of maize costs 350 quetzals. Moreover, there are development programs that provide poor households with supplies for the
production of vegetables, and these crops require unskilled labor.Map 2: Frost vulnerability per department
Note: Red indicates high susceptibility, orange indicates moderate susceptibility, yellow
indicates low, and gray indicates no susceptibility. Source: MFEWS with MAGA dataIn different zones of the county, the areas vulnerable to frosts have had substituted crops vulnerable
to frosts with products that grow well in the cold, such as peaches, plums, apples and quinces. The threat of frosts will continue until the beginning of March, and frosts may also affect the
potatoes sown by poor households. Furthermore, the cold fronts can cause floods in Izabal, which would affect the staple cereal harvest in that area, where dependency is high on the harvest for
own consumption (see Map 2).The rainfall during December was normal. According to international analyses, the El Ni?o conditions are weakening, thus reducing the food security hazard in
the country, although the risk of an irregular start of the rainy season can not yet be fully discounted. This situation is being closely monitored by INSIVUMEH, and both MAGA and the Secretar?a
de Seguridad Alimentaria y Nutricional (Food and Nutrition Security Secretariat) are prepared to take care of the communities in the event they are affected.
Prices and markets
The price of white maize is increasing due to the
international price increase of yellow maize caused by the increased demand for the grain for ethanol production in the U.S.A. It is expected that this increase will be for a limited time, and
that prices for February and March national harvests will be lower. The bean prices are within the normal range and the price for rice is stable and average.Graphic 1:
Nominal Staple Cereals Consumer prices as of December 22, 2006. ?La Terminal? Market, Guatemala City
Note: blue represents 1998/2005 average prices, green
represents 2005 prices, and red represents 2006 prices. Source: Prepared by MFEWS with data from MAGA, UOR and UPIE/Area of Information. Exchange US$1 = Q7.59 as of December 22,
2006
;)
;){kind=small}
;)
;){kind=small}
;)
;){kind=small}
;)
;){kind=small}
;)
;){kind=small}
;)
;){kind=small}