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The 2007/08 growing season got off to an early start compared with the 2006/07 season. Many parts of the country received rainfall in the weeks between the beginning of April and the third dekad of May, with some rain gauging stations reporting amounts of over 100 mm. These early rains enabled farmers in Dosso, Maradi, Tillabery, Tahoua and Zinder departments to plant their fields earlier than last year.

According to the Agricultural Statistics Office (DSA), 1,927 of Niger’s 10,534 farming villages (18 percent) had already planted their fields by the end of the third dekad of May, compared with only 138 at the same time last year.

Millet prices are still holding steady, but are reportedly moving downwards on certain grain markets around the country as farmers, grain banks and traders unload grain crops in response to the favorable start of the 2007/08 season. These good market supplies and the ensuing drop in prices are facilitating grain access for deficit households around the country, just as the lean period is getting underway, except in Loga, where planting activities have not yet started up. Thus, May prices for grain crops were lower than at the same time last year and below the five-year average for the same time of year.

In general, May prices for livestock were comparable to figures for April, but significantly higher than at the same time last year and well above the five-year average in all parts of the country with the exception of Kollo, Mayahi, Tessaoua and Matameye, where the market value of animals is falling due to shortages of pasture.

There was a regression in terms of trade for livestock/grain between the months of April and May from the standpoint of herders in pastoral and agropastoral areas of Téra, Filingué, Tchintabaraden and Tchirozérine departments. While normal for this time of year, this deterioration in terms of trade despite the downswing in grain prices is due to the poor condition of fattened animals.

In general, the household food situation is good in all parts of the country thanks to regular market supplies and current reasonable market prices.

Conditions in agropastoral areas

Rainfall conditions and the status of planting activities

The Regional Forum on Seasonal Forecasting and its Application to Early Warning Systems for Food Security in West Africa (PRESA-AO) held in Niamey on May 30-31, 2007 issued seasonal rainfall forecasts for the months of July, August and September for all of West Africa. Forecasts for Niger call for normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in 2007/08 in all agropastoral areas of the country.

Bearing out these forecasts, the 2007/08 growing season got off to an early start compared with the 2006/07 season. Many parts of the country saw earlier than usual locally heavy rains, which enabled farmers in certain departments, particularly in the Dosso, Maradi, Tillabery, Tahoua and Zinder regions, to plant their fields earlier than last year.

Figure 1. Cumulative rainfall totals for the 3rd dekad of May 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: NOAA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger   Figure 2. Condition of vegetation in the 3rd dekad of May 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: NOAA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) as of May 31 show good rainfall conditions in the far western reaches of the country in the Tillabery and Dosso regions and in the south-central part of the country in the Tahoua, Zinder and Maradi regions, with a few areas of locally heavy rainfall in Dosso, Say and Gaya departments (figure 1).

According to the DNSA, 1,927 out of the country’s 10,534 farming villages (18.3 percent) have already planted their fields, compared with only 138 villages at the same time last year.

Where millet has been planted, crops are generally in the sprouting stage and, in some spots, already in the tillering stage, particularly in Dosso and Gaya departments.

However, despite the generally good start-of-season, the growing season is still not definitively underway, which occurs after a one hundred percent planting rate is achieved in the country’s farm belt. Some of these early planted crops will probably fail for lack of regular, adequate rainfall. By the end of June, it will be possible to ascertain the level of success of planting activities in all parts of the country and accurately evaluate the progress of the 2007/2008 growing season.

Conditions in livestock-raising areas

With this year’s early rains, even in pastoral areas, grazing and watering conditions for livestock have improved earlier than usual as seasonal lakes and ponds are refilled, which should cut short any problems in pastoral areas. Thus, the dreaded disputes between farmers and herders, which were a real source of concern last month with the earlier than usual rains in the country’s farm belt, could be avoided if pasture production in livestock-raising areas keeps pace with planting activities in farming areas.

Agropastoral markets

Grain markets

Markets in all parts of the country are running smoothly thanks to regular market supplies.

Trends in grain prices throughout the month of May continued to help strengthen household grain access thanks to general price stability and an appreciable drop in average prices for coarse grains on certain markets in the southern part of the country. This downswing in millet prices between April and May is attributable to larger grain supplies from farmers and grain banks looking to sell their grain inventories on local markets in the face of this year’s earlier than usual start of the growing season (figure 3).

Figure 3. Fluctuation in millet prices, April – May 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger   Figure 4. Fluctuation in millet prices, May 2006 – May 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger   Figure 5. Comparison of millet prices for May 2007 with the 2002/06 average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

In general, millet prices for May of this year are lower than at the same time last year on all markets for which there is available price data (figure 4).

On the whole, prices are also below-average. In fact, millet prices for May of this year are clearly below-average in all parts of Niger, except in Loga department where current price levels are running more than 7 percent above-average. The explanation for these continuing high prices in Loga compared with the average lies in the failure of local farmers to unload their grain inventories on area markets, with not even a single village in this department having as yet planted any crops.

Thus, the price of a 100 kg sack of millet in May ranged from a low of 10,625 CFAF in Gaya to a high of 15,883 CFAF in Diffa, compared with a price spread of from 14,500 CFAF to 15,826 CFAF on these same markets in May2006 and from an average of 14,700 CFAF to 16,185 CFAF, respectively, for this time of year.

Livestock markets

In general, May prices were comparable to figures for April (figure 6), but significantly higher than at the same time last year (figure 7) and well above the five-year average in all parts of the country, with the exception of the Kollo, Mayahi, Tessaoua and Matameye areas where the market value of livestock is falling due to shortages of pasture (figure 8).

Bulls were selling for between 181,469 CFAF in Kollo and 311,594 CFAF in Matameye in May of this year, compared with a price spread of from 190,360 CFAF in Kollo to 377,138 CFAF in Matameye at the same time last year. The average price spread for this same time of year is from a low of 206,518 CFAF in Kollo to a high of 333,024 CFAF in Matameye.

Terms of trade for livestock/millet on markets in pastoral areas

Trends in terms of trade for livestock/millet between April and May of this year (figure 9) on most markets around the country were detrimental to herders, particularly in agropastoral and pastoral areas. This pattern is normal, even with the stability and, in some cases, the downswing in grain prices, triggered by the seasonal decline in the market value of livestock due to weight losses caused by shortages of pasture. Another cause of the regression in terms of trade is the increase in supplies of livestock from herders in need of cash to stock up on staples before heading back to pastoral areas with their migratory herds.

However, there was a visible improvement in terms of trade for herders in May of this year compared with May of last year (figure 10) and the five-year average for the same time of year (figure 11) on all markets around the country, except in Tanout and N’Guigmi departments plagued by grain and forage deficits.

Figure 6. Fluctuation in the price of bulls, April – May 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 7. Fluctuation in the price of bulls, May 2006 – May 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 8. Comparison of bull prices for May 2007 with the 2002/06 average FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Figure 9. Fluctuation in terms of trade for male goats/millet, April – May 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 10. Fluctuation in terms of trade for male goats/millet between May 2006 – May 2007 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 11. Fluctuation in terms of trade for male goats/millet in May 2007 with the 2002/06 average FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Source: SIMB, SIMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Niger

Food security situation

In general, the domestic food security situation is good, even with the normal depletion of household food reserves at this time of year, which marks the beginning of the pre-harvest lean period.

However, these good conditions could change over the next few months, depending on the progress of the growing season. What has been a good start-of-season, followed by regular rainfall, could mean better grain availability by as early as June on markets that are receiving increasingly large supplies from farmers, traders and grain banks looking to unload their grain inventories.

On the other hand, should meteorological conditions for the month of June be marked by rainfall anomalies and dry spells, concerns over the outcome of the growing season could prompt farmers and traders to engage in stock-piling and price speculation, in which case prices would rise. Under such a scenario, the food security of grain deficit households could be impaired, particularly if grain bank inventories are unable to meet demand.