Food security continues to decrease in southern Sudan, particularly in the Western and Eastern Flood Plains, as the hunger season enters the third month. Currently, households are coping with hunger-season food needs by consuming sorghum stocks, sorghum purchased by selling labor, livestock products, wild foods and dry fish, supplemented by subsidized grain and food aid. Government-subsidized sorghum is currently available in many zones, but a lack of data on the quantities available per zone makes it difficult to gauge the likely impact of the program during the hunger season.

The incidence of cattle raids has increased in the Pastoral and parts of the Hills and Mountains livelihood zones, largely due to the continued possession of firearms by civilians. Peace and civil security are critical for food security in these areas, and require urgent attention.

The June-September/November rainy season has begun in unimodal areas, and began early in some parts. The April to July season in bimodal areas is progressing well, even in areas where the onset of the season was late. Preparations should be started for annual needs and harvest assessments usually conducted between September and November.

Critical events timeline

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Food access summary

Figure 1: Livelihood zones in southern Sudan

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In the Western Flood Plains Livelihood Zone, households are consuming their final stocks of sorghum, and are increasingly relying on food aid as the hunger season approaches its peak in July. Similar consumption patterns are also occurring in the Eastern Flood Plains Zone. In the Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone, dried fish carried over from the January to April season, wild foods, livestock products and the last stocks of grain stored for consumption during the current cultivation period now dominate the food basket. In the Hills and Mountains Zone, cassava remains the main source of food, supplemented by the last stocks of grain harvested in January this year and a wide variety of leafy vegetables. Sorghum, maize, sesame, vegetables and groundnuts are the main foods being consumed in the Greenbelt Zone. Meanwhile, sorghum, vegetables, groundnuts, sesame and shea butter oil are key food sources in the Ironstone Zone.

Progress of March to July rains in bimodal cropping areas and onset of the June to September rains in unimodal areas

In the bimodal areas of the Greenbelt and parts of the Hills and Mountains livelihood zones, first-season (March/April to July) crops that were planted around mid-April are now in their third month. The onset of the first season was timely in many parts of the Greenbelt Zone, but was delayed by 20 to 30 days in parts of the Hills and Mountains Zone (see the circled areas in figures 2 and 3). This delay is a threat to production as it may reduce crop yields if the typical June to July dry spell occurs before the crops are fully established. Currently, crop water requirement conditions in the two zones are mostly average (Figure 4). It is not yet clear whether the dry spell in the Hills and Mountains Zone has occurred, and close monitoring is necessary.

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In the unimodal areas (Eastern/Western Flood Plains, Ironstone and Nile Sobat zones), the onset of the June to September/November rains was mixed, starting around April in some areas and June in others (figures 3 and 5). Early planting occurred in areas where rains started early. Latest updates from Hard, a humanitarian agency operating in the Ironstone plateau, confirmed that farmers planted earlier than normal, but planting of various crops continued into June. Typically, planting reaches its peak between early and mid-June in unimodal areas.

Current vegetation and associated pasture conditions are slightly above normal in most areas (Figure 6). As expected last month, significant improvements have occurred in the Pastoral Zone (figures 6 and 7).

Western Flood Plains Zone

The June to September rains began earlier than normal in some areas. Planting began as early as April and continued into June. Meanwhile, the hunger season, which is more pronounced in the northern part of this zone, is approaching its peak in July. Here, households are now relying on the last reserves of sorghum specifically stored for consumption during the June to September cultivation season, supplemented by subsidized grain and food aid. As households concentrate on cultivating their own crops, they significantly reduce their participation in labor and petty trade opportunities.

In Lakes State farther south, food security conditions appear stable. Grain saved from last year’s good harvest is still available for many households and is now being supplemented by shea butter oil, the production of which has been relatively good this year. Livestock products, especially milk, are also contributing significantly to the food basket, with prospects of reaching peak around July. The availability of fish, wild foods, livestock and pasture has been and is better compared to the same time last year.

Latest updates from OXFAM indicate that rainfall declined during May and interrupted planting in parts of Rumbek and Cuibet counties. However, rains improved again in June and normal planting and cultivation resumed.

Inter-clan clashes occurred in Rumbek County in Lakes State towards the end of May. Successful widespread disarmament conducted in the area last year was thought to have reduced conflict, implying that this latest conflict was likely caused by competition over grazing land and water access, as is typical during the January to May season. Lakes State has the highest number of livestock in southern Sudan and people are still restocking by purchasing cattle from outside the state, including from northern Uganda, implying that historical conflict over grazing land is likely to persist despite the widespread disarmament.

Latest updates from the June Livelihoods Analysis Forum (LAF) discussions indicated that market prices of sorghum, maize and groundnuts remained normal during the dry season, and that previously high livestock prices have started to decrease due to reduced demand for bulls in Uganda where prices are now lower. However, other informal reports attribute the decrease in livestock prices to a decline in the spending of salaries by government workers – livestock prices increased once salaries were paid and demand increased, and are now decreasing after the salaries have been spent.

Eastern Flood Plains Zone

Pasture, water conditions and milk access are favorable, and are likely to remain so through October or November. As in the Western Flood Plains, the hunger season has started and is being addresses by food aid, supplemented by government-subsidized sorghum.

The June to September rains in this zone have begun normally, except for one area in the eastern part of the zone where the rains began slightly late. As in the Western Flood Plains, planting is ongoing. However, some households were reported having planted crops such as maize, groundnuts, sesame and sorghum in May.

The latest updates from Norwegian Peoples Aid (NPA), a food security agency covering the southeastern part of Upper Nile State (Eastern Flood Plains Zone), suggest that food access during this year’s hunger season is normal. Despite the lack of price data, anecdotal reports indicate that the price of staple foods such as grain has been normal since March 2007, implying that households can be expected to cope with the hunger season as various hunger season interventions continue. Notable improvements have been made towards improving access to safe water following drilling of more boreholes. However, this is not expected to have an impact on dry-season livestock movements during 2008 because cattle will require large amounts of water and pasture which is only available along rivers.

Meanwhile, population returns into this zone are expected to decline, following the completion of repatriation of Sudanese refugees from Ethiopia back to southern Sudan and the closure of UNHCR refugee camps that were hosting Sudanese refugees. This will ease the monitoring of cross-border trade movements, which was previously difficult.

Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone

An early start of the June to September rainy season occurred in some parts of this zone. This early start is now having positive impacts on food security, as it has facilitated early planting and the return of livestock from dry-season grazing areas. However, it is not clear whether the rains have facilitated the typical short high-yield fishing spell that sometimes occurs in June in areas near the Nile River. The early start of the rains also has negative implications, including likely early and above-normal flooding if rains are consistent, which significantly reduces crop performance and yields. It is critical to watch for early flooding signals starting in July.

Currently, vegetation conditions are above normal in almost all parts of this zone, implying that pastures for livestock and access to milk by households are favorable. A significant increase in milk yields is also expected around July.

Food security conditions in this zone are expected to remain normal, characterized by consumption of dried fish and some wild foods carried over from the January-April dry season, as well as water plants supplemented by livestock products. Also, households are in a position to purchase additional sorghum from towns including Malakal, Bentiu, Phom, Tonga, Leer and Bor and store the sorghum for consumption in the remainder of the hunger season. Compared to other zones, rural households here have the most cash income, derived from selling fish that is shipped to northern Sudan, income from relatives abroad and income earned in oilfields in Unity State and large mechanized agricultural farms in Upper Nile State (Renk and Melut). Households with less access to income-generating opportunities are expected to benefit from ongoing food aid interventions.

Environmental concerns continue, especially over the contamination of water by oil-drilling activities in the northern parts of the zone (Unity State). There are increased complaints and reports from surrounding communities about the negative impact of oil contamination on animals and plants. Health risks posed by contamination by oil and associated chemical waste include skin and eye irritation, chemically induced pneumonia, headaches and mental disturbances, and chronic lung disease. So far, no national or international agencies have assessed the impact of the oil-related toxic effluent on the communities, and there is an urgent need for the Ministry of Environment and other relevant agencies to address this problem. Most critical is an assessment of the magnitude of the negative impact on human and livestock health.

Hills and Mountains Zone

Food security conditions are normal, particularly in the bimodal eastern and central parts of this zone where the two cropping seasons make food availability more reliable. Households are exhausting their last stocks of sorghum, sesame, cowpeas and groundnuts and are increasing their reliance on cassava. Cassava consumption will continue until August, when the first-season harvest is due.

Attacks by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) of Uganda and possibly other unknown armed groups on civilians have recurred as peace negotiations between LRA and the Ugandan Government continue in Juba. The latest attacks occurred towards the end of May when four people were abducted, reviving fears of increased attacks, particularly in Magwi County where LRA attacks have persisted since 1994. Over the years, the attacks have had a negative impact in the following ways:

• People have deserted their villages;
• Highly productive agricultural areas have been abandoned;
• LRA-related insecurity resulted in the areas being cut off from much needed humanitarian services; and,
• Improvements in the very lucrative cross-border trade have been severely curtailed.

LRA attacks make commodities more expensive as traders incur more costs hiring security and traveling in convoys. Thus, the currently ongoing peace talks are of great significance to this zone, as they hold the key to post-war recovery and development as well as control of other unknown armed groups whose activities are often blamed on the LRA.

Tensions have escalated following armed attacks and inter-tribal cattle raiding conducted by the Toposa of the Pastoral Zone on Didinga agro-pastoralists in the Hills and Mountains Zone in May. About 54 people were killed, primarily women and children that were attacked when they were cultivating their fields. The May raids are considered the worst in recent years, and have triggered the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly (SSLA) to debate on how to curb this problem. The SSLA is currently developing recommendations on how to address the problem. Civilians and leaders in this zone are increasingly demanding the disarmament of all armed civilians.

Meanwhile, concerns are increasing over the capacity of Juba City’s basic social infrastructure to host increasing numbers of people. Of highest concern is the lack of safe drinking water, due to high contamination of available water sources by human waste, which is resulting in a cycle of diarrhea, typhoid and cholera infections.

Greenbelt Zone

Food security remains stable in the Greenbelt Zone, which typically has surplus food throughout the year. Here, households are still relying on the second-season January 2007 crop harvest consisting of sorghum, maize, cowpeas, cassava, sweet potatoes and millet.

The recent Livelihoods Analysis Forum (LAF) meeting in June confirmed the onset of rains was early to near normal in some parts, and also highlighted areas where rains began late (Yei County and some northern parts of Tambura). This is consistent with remotely sensed data available in April and May 2007. Despite the delayed start in these select areas, crops have progressed well in most places.

Currently, the main concern is the continuation of LRA activities, which has revived fears of renewed and intensified attacks despite the ongoing peace talks between LRA and the Ugandan Government. The latest attacks occurred during the last week of May when four people were killed, twelve abducted and livestock were looted. Due to fear of LRA attacks, households in affected areas are reported to have reduced hunting and honey collection. Fear of the attacks has increased in parts of Yambio and Maridi counties, which is reportedly interrupting cultivation.

Ironstone Plateau Zone

An early start of the June to September cropping season characterized many parts of this zone, triggering slightly earlier-than-normal planting in select parts as signaled last month. This could possibly facilitate cultivating larger farms in some areas.

Latest updates from the LAF in June indicate that food access in most parts of this zone remains adequate, as groundnuts, sorghum, sesame, honey, shea butter and wild tubers are currently available for consumption during this cultivation season. Additional updates indicated that subsidized grain was available, especially in Wau County, but for unclear reasons, traders were increasing the prices. Goat prices increased by 20 percent due to a higher demand for meat by the increasing populations in towns located in Lakes, Western and Northern Bahr El Gazal states (Western Flood Plains) and increased demand for restocking by salaried government workers. Despite this price increase, terms of trade between goats and sorghum are reported not having changed. Reasons for these unchanged terms of trade are unclear.

Meanwhile, concerns persist over Mvolo County where people have recently returned to settle and cultivate after fleeing fighting last year. These people returned in April 2007, and there is concern that they might not have had sufficient time to prepare land before the earlier-than-normal rains set in. If households were not able to plant, access to their own production will decrease in September and October when the main harvest normally begins.

Arid/Pastoral Zone

Vegetation and pasture conditions are favorable and continue to improve following increased rains in the last month. These rains are critical for pasture growth and also determine food security between June and September. Household members tending cattle have returned them from the long-distance dry-season grazing areas to wet-season homesteads. Milk and other livestock products are being consumed in plenty.

The latest government security updates indicate that Toposa pastoralists attacked their neighbors in Budi County and raided more cattle towards the end of May, escalating already existing tension over earlier raids. These same updates indicate that recent clashes occurred between some Murle pastoralists and security forces in this zone. It is likely that this recent escalation of cattle rustling is a result of intended or ongoing plans to disarm pastoral groups in this zone, as they attempt to acquire as many livestock as possible before arms are taken away. It is thus critical that the government accelerates the disarmament process to minimize losses and protect less-hostile groups. Disarmament would also greatly enhance ongoing peace-building activities among pastoral communities, which are now being negatively affected by these raids. Disarming pastoralists in this zone would also improve security in the Hills and Mountains Zone, and promote sharing of grazing and water sources that are essential for livestock, the main source of food in the zone.