FEWS NET Monthly Report for Afghanistan covering the period Oct 2006 to Nov 2006.
AFGHANISTAN Food
Security Update November 2006
ALERT STATUS: NO ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY
Summary and implications
Floods damaged homes and agricultural
land throughout the country in November. The impact of the floods was particularly severe in the northwest, where a large food insecure population already existed due to the previous season's
drought, and immediate targeted humanitarian assistance is needed to prevent widespread distress migration. In the central highlands, seasonal food price increases may restrict poor households'
access to food. Wage labor has become the dominant livelihood in the central highlands and southern provinces, but intensified conflict has decreased access to wage labor and further burdened
the food insecure population, particularly in the south.
Above-normal precipitation and temperatures in November 2006 are causing
flooding in most of Afghanistan.
Below-normal and ill-timed precipitation during the 2005/06 winter resulted in a 50 to 80 percent loss of the rainfed harvest of May, June and July 2006 and
caused drinking water shortages in northern Afghanistan.
Early snow melt in early 2006 reduced the irrigation water supply for the winter 2006/07 cultivation season.
The deterioration
of security in southern Afghanistan has forced 20,000 families to flee their homes.
Food prices noticeably increased in Faryab and Daykundi provinces compared to historical wheat market prices
data.
Food security summary
Above-normal
precipitation and temperature in the month of November 2006 caused destructive flooding in most parts of the country, with severe impacts in northwestern provinces where drought was concentrated as
well. As a result, more than 60 people have died, hundreds of houses have been destroyed and thousands of hectares of agriculture land have been damaged.Inadequate and poorly distributed
precipitation during the winter of 2005/06 caused severe water shortages and resulted in a 50 to 80 percent loss of rainfed cereal production during May, June and July 2006 in northern
Afghanistan. An estimated 90,000 people face critical shortages of potable water. Crop losses and water shortages are most acute in Badghis, Faryab, Jawzjan, Sari Pul and Samangan
provinces due to the reliance on rainfed agriculture and lack of off-farm economic opportunities to offset production shortfalls, but Balkh, Kunduz, Baghlan and Takhar provinces are also
affected. Although food flows from Central Asia have helped to stabilize food prices in the northwest, effective purchasing power is constrained by the lack of income generating
opportunities. Without immediate targeted humanitarian assistance, the situation in northwestern provinces may deteriorate into a large-scale crisis with widespread distress migration.In
the chronically food insecure central highlands, the direct impact of the drought on production will be minimal, but increasing cereal prices during the upcoming winter months could deteriorate food
security. As these communities are isolated during the winter, households must purchase large stocks prior to the winter months. Cereal prices increased in October and November as a
result, and further price increases of at least moderate levels are expected. Poor households in these areas derive much of their income from labor migration, making them highly market dependent
and vulnerable to price increases. Significant price increases would thus have a disproportionate impact on food security in this region.In addition to possible short-term support for
currently vulnerable groups, long-term investment should be prioritized in these areas to better link the area to agricultural markets and to rebuild livestock assets lost during the drought and war
to mitigate high levels of chronic food insecurity. FEWS NET Afghanistan's literature review on labor situation reveals that labor opportunities in Afghanistan have reduced significantly in 2006
due to the political instability and insurgent activities in the country. This put further burden on the central highlands population whose livelihoods are based on labor migration to the
cities.Below-normal snow cover and precipitation in southern Afghanistan during the 2005/06 winter and past eight years have caused irrigation and drinking water shortages. However,
households in the south have diversified their livelihood activities during the past eight years of drought. Households now rely more on trade, labor migration, child labor and remittances and
are well connected to markets in the region, which generally ensures a stable food supply. Access to drinking water remains problematic for more than 50 percent of the Afghan population,
however. The increasing intensity of conflict in these areas does have the potential to disrupt trade flows, limit labor migration opportunities and cause additional displacement, thereby
increasing food insecurity. The Afghan government and the United Nations estimate that conflict-driven IDPs number around 20,000 families. Long-term investment to mitigate the enduring
impact of drought in the south is needed, in addition to short-term assistance to support displaced populations and marginalized groups such as widows, the disabled and the elderly.
Weather outlook
Weather probability forecasts from the
International Research Institute for Climate Protection (IRI) indicate that precipitation and temperature will vary significantly across Afghanistan from November 2006 to April 2007. Potential
impacts include high precipitation in December cutting off high-elevated villages from food markets and another dry spring season in the northwestern provinces further decreasing household coping
strategies.November and December's precipitation is likely to be above-normal throughout Afghanistan. The high-elevated villages located in the central highlands, northwest and northeast
may be cut off from food markets, putting households at risk that could not yet purchase their needed food (Afghans traditionally purchase their needed food and firewood in November). In lower
elevations the above-normal precipitation is likely to help winter cultivation. During this period, temperatures are likely to be above-normal in most parts of the country. This increases
the risk of flooding and early snow melt, which would negatively affect irrigation and drinking water resources.
In January and February 2007, above-normal precipitation is probable in the northeast, as was the case in the 2005/06 wet season, while the rest of the country is likely to experience
below-normal precipitation (see the image on the left below). Below-normal precipitation in the central highland mountains?the main source of water for the Kabul and Hilmand rivers?may cause
shortages of irrigation and drinking water for central and southern Afghanistan. Exacerbating the below-normal precipitation, above-normal temperatures in the central highland mountains may
cause early snow melt, which leads to flooding and decreased surface water resources later in the season. Eighty percent of irrigation water in Afghanistan comes from surface water
resources.
In March and April 2007, above-normal precipitation is likely in northeastern and northern
Afghanistan. This will benefit rainfed and irrigated zones within the regions, which produce the majority of wheat in Afghanistan. However, highly drought-affected provinces such as
Faryab, Badghis and Ghor are likely to experience a dry season again. This drought-upon-drought would have tremendous negative impact on household coping strategies, which are already nearly
exhausted as a result of the current drought. Temperatures are likely to remain above-normal through March and April, which would negatively impact soil moisture and early snow melt and could
cause floods.
October 2006 wheat market prices in Faryab and Daykundi provinces increased to 15 Afs per kg, the highest recorded wheat
prices in Afghanistan's history (see the Maimana and Bamyan locations in graph 1). The increase in wheat cost indicates the severe impacts of drought, remoteness and bad road conditions that
prevent smooth commercial wheat flow into these regions. These regions are highly recommended for winterization, a program that helps communities facing food shortages during the
winter.On the other hand, Gardiz and Jalalabad faced very low wheat prices of 10.4 Afs per kg, which indicates smooth wheat flows from Pakistan (see the Jalalabad location in graph 1).
Although the security situation is worsening, there is no sign yet of negative impact on the wheat market.Graph 1: Wheat market prices, Jan 2004 to Oct 2006
Source: WFP/VAM Note: WFP has stopped collecting wheat market prices in Bamyan
Province early this year due to closure of its sub-office in that province. In recent months, WFP began collecting wheat market prices in Daykundi Province which is Bamyan's neighbor and is
located in the same central highlands. FEWS NET Afghanistan therefore used Daykundi wheat market prices in the above graph for Bamyan to give an idea about central highlands' wheat market
prices.
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