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Food access improves with early harvests

12 Jan 2007 14:33:00 GMT
Source: FEWS NET

Background

• W. African food crisis

• Chad hunger

• African hunger

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FEWS NET Monthly Report for Chad covering the period Sep 2006 to Oct 2006.

CHAD
Monthly Food Security Update
October 2006

ALERT STATUS:
NO ALERT
WATCH
WARNING
EMERGENCY

Summary and implications

A joint CILSS/FEWS NET harvest assessment mission for 2006 was conducted in Chad over the period from October 16th through October 20th. The purpose of the mission was to make a preliminary assessment of grain production for 2006, help collect and analyze relevant data for the crafting of an ex-post grain balance sheet for 2005/06 and projected grain balance sheet for 2006/07 and examine the food security outlook for the 2006/07 season.

The mission included a field trip to the Mandelia and Gu?lendeng areas on October 18th to observe the condition of local crops and discuss the situation with technical directors for both areas.

Seasonal calendar

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Current hazards summary

a) The truce ending the fighting between government troops and Chadian rebels in mid September of this year is fragile. A resumption of the hostilities between government troops and rebels could disrupt harvesting activities along the border and create a new wave of displaced persons.
b) The presence of grain-eating birds whose numbers have grown exponentially in the past few years.

Progress of the 2006/07 agropastoral season

1. PROGRESS OF THE 2006/07 SEASON

1.1. Rainfall conditions
In general, cumulative rainfall totals were less than they were last year (2005) and below-normal up until the first dekad of September, after which there was heavy rainfall throughout the entire farming belt. There have been reports of flooding and serious damage in L?r? and Sarh since August. The heavy rainfall continued into the second dekad of September, causing more flooding and major damage in Sarh, Doba, B?b?dja, Pala and Koumra. The rains let-up in the third dekad of the month but, by then, seasonal cumulative rainfall totals were already running above last year and the average. With the ITF advancing as far north as the 22nd parallel during the third dekad of September, this created conditions conducive to rainstorm activity, which began early in October, with scattered storms reported around the country.

1.2 Status of crops
Despite the late start-of-season, early-planted crops are currently in the maturation and harvesting stages. Moreover, thanks to the October rains, late-planted crops should reach full maturity, under optimal soil moisture conditions.

As of August 31, 2006, the size of the area under crops in the country's southeastern rural development area (Sarh) was estimated at 457,372 hectares, including 55,871 hectares planted in cotton and 401,501 hectares planted in food crops, which is an improvement over last year. Note that the size of the area planted in sorghum in this part of the country has grown by approximately 45 percent, replacing cotton crops which have been cut back due to conditions on the international market. However, an estimated 37,000 hectares of cropland were lost to flooding in this area.

The size of the area under crops in the south-central part of the country (Moundou) has increased by approximately 31 percent from last year, with no reports of any flood damage in rural areas. The only reports of flooding are in urban areas, particularly in the city of B?b?dja.

In contrast, the size of the area under crops in the southwest (Bongor) has declined by about 18 percent, due mainly to the late start of the season. The loss of cropland due to flooding in this area is estimated at 285 hectares, a portion of which may be salvageable.

The size of the area under crops in the country's Sahelian zone is estimated at 617,000 hectares, greater than the 535,000 hectares planted in crops in 2005. Here again, losses of cropland due to flooding are unfortunate, including 54 hectares of seedbeds for flood-recession sorghum (berb?r?) crops.

1.3 Plant health conditions
In general, plant health conditions around the country are calm. Right now, the main source of concern is the presence of grain-eating birds throughout the entire farm belt (Mayo Khebi, Tangil?, Moyen Chari, Ouada?, Salamat, Gu?ra, Lac, Batha and Ouadi Fira) and the prospect of their attack on grain crops in the maturation stage of the growing cycle.

Other factors threatening crop production include the loss of cropland due to flooding in the southern part of the country and damage from rodents, necessitating the replanting of crops in certain parts of Batha and Kanem, and the threat of beetle and grasshopper infestations of crops during the maturation stage of their growing cycle.

1.4 Conditions in livestock-raising areas
Pasture resources and watering holes are more than adequate as the rainy season continues. Animal health conditions are relatively quiet, except for a few cases of soil-borne diseases in localized areas.

2. GRAIN HARVEST FORECAST FOR 2006/07

2.1 Methodology
The farm survey system had still not been set up as of the end of October. Harvest forecasts for the 2006/07 growing season were developed based on estimates of the size of areas under crops furnished by ONDR (National Rural Development Agency) and SODELAC (Lake Chad Development Agency) extension services.

2.2 Grain harvest assessment for 2006/07
The grain harvest for 2006/07 is projected at 1,913,310 MT, which is up 3 percent more than last year's production (1,853,396 MT). According to the projection, millet production has risen by 2 percent and sorghum production by 19 percent. In contrast, maize production fell by 9 percent, rice by 28 percent and wheat by 48 percent. Berb?r? or flood-recession sorghum production is the same as last year (Table 1).

Table 1: Grain harvest forecast for 2006/07 compared with previous production figures (in metric tons)

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Source: DSA/DPA (Crop Production Bureau/Agricultural Statistics Division)

The size of the area under crops is estimated at 2,552,662 hectares, which approximately 5 percent more than the 2,433,082 hectares planted last year (Table 2). The expansion in areas cultivated with miller (3 percent) and sorghum (17 percent) can be attributed to the reduction in the size of areas planted in cotton, which were converted to grain due to the low price of cotton on international markets. The size of the area planted in other grain crops declined due mainly to flooding in the southern part of the country; area planted with maize fell 6 percent, rice by 26 percent, and wheat by 22 percent.

Table 2: Projected size of areas planted in grain crops in 2006/07 compared with previous figures (in hectares)

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Source: DSA/DPA (Crop Production Bureau/Agricultural Statistics Division)

Food access: food access is improving thanks to harvests of short-cycle crops

The food situation for 2006 is good and, in general, the food outlook is reassuring. This year's lean period has been relatively painless, with regular market supplies keeping prices down.

Food-insecure areas
Despite the favorable food security outlook, there are still a number of food-insecure areas and population groups, namely:

The Kanem region, marked by structural food insecurity problems;
The Batha region, due to planting delays caused by a rainfall deficit early in the growing season and changes in seasonal migration routes for migrating herds due to the violence in the east;
The L?r? area, due to flooding and ensuing losses of large areas of cropland;
The eastern portion of West Logone, with two consecutive growing seasons marred by soil depletion and severe erosion problems;
Djourf Al Ahmar department (Ouadda?), due to the unusually late start-of-season and the threat posed by grain-eating birds;
Local communities in the vicinity of refugee camps, due to the pressure on local resources (access to firewood and the drying up of wells);
IDPs uprooted by armed conflicts, prevented from engaging in farming activities, particularly in areas along the border with Sudan and the Central African Republic.

1. TRENDS IN GRAIN PRICES

The price of millet (the basic food crop) is up slightly on the Ab?ch? and N'Djamena markets. On markets in the south of the country, grain prices are steadily falling, following the recent harvests of fresh crops and good prospects for the growing season now in progress (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Average monthly millet prices on Chad's four largest markets (October 2005 to October 2006)

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Source: SIM (Market Information System); Analyses by FEWS NET Chad

The price of millet on the country's four largest markets is less than it was at the same time last year, by anywhere from 22 percent to 40 percent. Millet prices are also running below the five-year average on all markets with the exception of Sarh, where they are more or less on par with the average (+1 percent).

Terms of trade are still favoring pastoralists, despite the rise in millet prices.

Terms of trade for millet/sheep were still in favoring pastoralists as of October 24th, despite the slight rise in millet prices (Figure 2). The reported hike in the price of millet during the month-long fasting period associated with the celebration of Ramadan. The heavy demand for this grain crop has been tempered by the rise in the price of sheep.

Figure 2: Terms of trade for sheep/millet on the N'Djamena market (October 2005 to October 2006)

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Source: SIM (Market Information System); Graphic by FEWS NET Chad

Conclusions and recommendations

After all the anxiety over the late start of season, the improvement in rainfall since the second dekad of July and the prolongation of the rainy season into the month of October bode well for a generally good harvest. However, losses of cropland due to flooding in the south and the threat posed by crop pests in general and grain-eating birds in particular and the pockets of drought observed in late September could adversely affect current harvest forecasts.

In light of the above, the mission recommends:

strengthening the farm survey system to improve the availability and reliability of corresponding data;
furnishing farmers with improved millet and sorghum seeds through the expansion of seed production centers adapted to the country's different agroecological areas;
promoting the cultivation of berb?r? or flood-recession sorghum crops, which play an important role in ensuring domestic food security;
establishing a rational control program against grain-eating birds, whose numbers have grown exponentially in the past few years;
closely monitoring the food security situation in previously identified food-insecure areas;
implementing compensatory measures such as assistance programs for truck farming activities in areas where the prematurely ending rainy season has reduced local production capacity;
rebuilding food security reserves (village-level grain banks, national reserves) using expected surpluses.

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Last updated:Fri Jan 12 19:35:39 2007