The national production of staple cereals in 2006/07 was higher than the production of the previous cycle (2005/06). However, abnormal rainy periods throughout the cycle caused production losses of up to 50 percent in maize and beans for households that produce for their own subsistence. Food prices will increase as well, as a result of increases in the international maize price. Many poor households will require assistance, especially when the demand for unskilled labor is low from March to August.

Seasonal Calendar

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Food Security Situation

Graphic 1. Poor households’ food sources   FULL-SIZE IMAGE                  Source: MFEWS, livelihoods analysis, 2005

More than 300,000 subsistence producers experienced losses of up to 50 percent of their maize and bean crops in the 2006/07 agricultural cycle. Their crops were severely affected by an abnormal rainy season (excess rain in the west and deficits in the south) in June and July, 2006, and a rainfall deficit as a result of the El Niño phenomenon between August and October. On the other hand, national production was 5 percent higher in maize and 14 percent higher in beans than the 2005/06 agricultural cycle. Poor technological levels, traditional crop systems, hillside planting and land size of less than one hectare caused a difference in the impact of the abnormal rains between subsistence farmers and mid and large-sized commercial agriculture producers.

For a subsistence household in normal conditions, own production contributes an average of 30 percent to food consumption, and the sale of food contributes 18 percent of their income (Graphic 1). Accordingly, the loss of 50 percent of their production causes a 15 percent deficit in the total food they consume and reduces their income by 9 percent. Poor households will face a 20 percent total deficit as a result from February to August, 2007.

In January, February and possibly March, most households that will face this deficit will be able to reduce and in some cases even eliminate it by increasing their sale of labor. There is a high demand for labor for coffee cutting, sugar cane harvesting and melon, shrimp and banana harvesting and packing activities in those months, which enables poor families to produce more income for the purchase of food.

However, from March to August, the household income deficit could increase up to 40 percent. During this period there is usually a decrease in demand for skilled labor, depletion in the household food reserves and an increase in the price of the basic food basket. At this time, in departments such as Choluteca, Valle, the south of Francisco Morazan, the south of Paraiso and the south of Lempira, food assistance is usually required to prevent these households from facing a food insecurity crisis. This year, the assistance required will increase due to the production deficit at the subsistence household level.

In recent months, the international maize price has increased sharply: in just three months it increased 50 percent, and in national markets it increased between 25 and 30 percent (Graphics 2 and 3). This is due mainly to the increase of demand for maize as an input for ethanol production at the international level. Although high prices benefit producers, they have negative effects in the households and in the poultry, pork and dairy markets, where maize is the main food source. Therefore, the prices of products such as chicken, pork meat and milk will increase to different extents.

These price increases would have an impact food access in a normal year and could have an even higher impact on poor households this year due to the production deficits. The high demand for maize in the international market will produce a deficit in internal supply, as imports will be reduced by 20 percent (2 million quintals), threatening the poor households’ access to this product. Consequently, numerous poor households will be forced to seek other employment sources and in many cases to migrate to urban zones.

Graphic 2. Consumer maize prices, in the San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa markets FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Honduran Agricultural Products Markets Information System, 2006/07

Graphic 3. FOB white maize prices, Kansas City Board of Trade FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEDEAGRO, 1988/2006

Weather Conditions

According to the results of the XX Central American Climate Forum, above-normal temperatures (+ 0.5 to 1.0°C) continue in the tropical Pacific Ocean’s surface, which indicates that the El Niño phenomenon persists. It is forecasted to reach its mature phase between December 2006 and March 2007, returning to neutral around March or May, with a delayed weakening in May that which could delay the start of winter and the sowing of the primera staple cereals.

Good conditions for rainfalls are forecasted for February and March 2007 for the staple cereal production in most of the country (see the yellow and gray zones in Graphic 4). A decrease in rainfall is forecast for the southern region (brown zone in Graphic 4), but it is expected that it will not affect food security, as during these months the majority of households have no agricultural production and the sale of labor is their main economic activity.

Graphic 4. Climate perspective, December 2006 to January 2007, per staple cereal productive areas   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: SAG/INFOAGRO,XX Central American Climate Forum

Gray Zone. In this zone, normal to above-normal rainfall is likely in February and March. This zone includes the Santa Barbara, Cortes, Atlantida, Colon and Gracias a Dios departments and south Olancho and the eastern sector of the El Paraíso.

Yellow Zone. In this zone, which includes the Interior Central and Eastern regions, rainfall is likely to be within the normal to dry range in February and March.

Brown Zone. There is a higher probability that the accumulated rain during this period (February to March) will be below normal. The critical locations in this zone include the Valle, Choluteca, southern part of the Francisco Morazan and western part of the El Paraiso departments.

To reduce the impact of the likely below-average rainfall, the Secretaría de Agricultura y Ganadería (Agriculture and Livestock Secretariat) will support the sowing of 20 thousand manzanas of maize starting the first week of January 2007, providing seeds, fertilizers and irrigation systems to small and medium maize producers. This assistance will concentrate on areas in the yellow and brown zones with a high concentration of staple cereal production.