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KENYA Food Security Update			August 2007

Figure 1. Current food security status    FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: ALRMP/KFSSG Assessment Tea

• The overall food security of drought- and flood-affected pastoral and marginal agricultural households has improved, sustained by excellent short rains in early 2007 despite poor 2007 long rains, especially in the eastern pastoral districts. However, households remain highly vulnerable to hazards, and livelihood-strengthening interventions need to be implemented.

• Pastoral food security is decreasing seasonably as the dry season progresses, although food access and nutrition remain better than in previous years. However, pastoral households face exceptionally high cereal prices, even as prices are declining in production epicenters, undermining the recovery of their terms of trade and overall food security.

• Favorable short rains are needed from October to December to sustain improvements in food security. If the rains fail, a food security crisis is possible in early 2008 in northeastern pastoral and southeastern marginal agricultural areas.

• Overall national cereal availability is favorable. Even marginal agricultural farm households retain significant stocks after a favorable short-rains season in late 2006. An above-average long-rains harvest is expected, which will maintain good food availability but may cause producer prices to decrease, especially if the 2007/08 short-rains harvest is good.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Pastoral grazing indicators decline seasonally, especially in eastern pastoral districts

Figure 2. Forage deviations compared to long-term means FULL-SIZE IMAGE                                       Source: LEWS/GL_CRSP

The dry season is into its third month in the pastoral and marginal agricultural districts. Availability of pasture, browse and water is seasonally declining except in the northern and northwestern pastoral districts, where significant unseasonable rains fell later in June and July (figure 2). Movement of pastoralists and livestock away from wet-season to dry-season grazing areas and closer to boreholes and other permanent water sources increased slightly during July, particularly in the eastern, northeastern and southern rangelands. However, the migrations were less noticeable in the southwestern pastoral and agropastoral rangelands, where the 2007 long-rains season has been fairly good and followed a highly favorable short-rains season in early 2007. The Arid Lands and Resource Management Project (ALRMP) has reported that there is accelerated depletion of forage around permanent water sources especially in the eastern pastoral districts of Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo and Tana River. Pastoral and livestock migration arising from conflict declined markedly during July, attributed to extensive security operations in affected districts including Marsabit, Samburu, West Pokot, Turkana, Tana River and Mandera. Pastoralists are expected to return to their normal grazing areas as soon as the raids are halted.

The exceptionally good October 2006 to February 2007 rains followed by fair long rains in the southwestern pastoral districts have translated into tangible food security gains across the pastoral livelihood through increased milk availability, improved livestock body conditions and higher livestock prices. The rates of child malnutrition have decreased considerably; global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates were significantly lower in 2007 as compared to the two previous years (figure 3), which were characterized by an extended period of drought and substantial food stress. While the rates have declined in 2007, they remain higher than the World Health Organization’s emergency threshold in Mandera, Marsabit and Wajir districts.

Figure 3. Trends in child malnutrition in key pastoral districts (percent GAM, using weight-for-height)   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source of Data: UNICEF

The steady rise in livestock prices that began in October 2006 has now been stymied as grazing resources begin to decline across most of the pastoral districts, including Baringo, Garissa, Kajiado, Mandera, Turkana and Wajir. While current livestock prices remain 20 to 25 percent higher than respective July averages, leading to above-average income and access to food for pastoral households, the prices are likely to decline through October as the dry season peaks. Milk availability, especially for sedentary household members, is expected to decrease as male members of the pastoral household migrate away to dry-season grazing areas. Impacts on the nutrition of the remaining household members will depend on the size of the milking herd that is left at home, which is expected to be favorable for household nutrition this year as the dry season has not been abnormally severe. So far, only limited migration is occurring in the northwestern pastoral districts including Turkana, eastern Marsabit, Samburu, West Pokot and Baringo where unseasonable rains fell in June and July. Household milk availability is expected to remain favorable in these areas for a considerable period of the dry season.

The prognosis for the pastoralists’ food security in the western pastoral districts is good, especially after the long-rains season continued unseasonably into July, closely following a very good short-rains season. However, pastoralists in the northeastern districts are likely to experience significant stress prior to the onset of the short-rains season in October. Nevertheless, northeastern pastoralists have substantial migration options, unlike during past seasons, since the long rains were not uniformly mediocre across pastoral livelihood zones in 2007.

Favorable crop prospects in the highlands contrast poor crop prospects in marginal areas

Figure 4. Maize price trends across markets representative of different livelihoods (Ksh/90kg) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: MoA/ALRMP/NCPB

Continued rains through July in key cropping areas of western Kenya and the Rift Valley highlands have increased prospects for a favorable long-rains harvest. An estimated 1.2 million hectares of maize have been planted so far. Nearly 30 percent of the total long-rains maize crop has been harvested, predominantly in the early harvesting areas in the southwest, most of western Kenya and the eastern and coastal lowlands. The rest of the crop ranges from the tasselling stage to the cob formation through the physiological stage. The largest crop that is expected to mature in November-January in the Rift Valley highlands is at the fairly nascent tasselling stage.

The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) anticipates that 2.56 million MT of maize will be harvested, about 18 percent higher than the long-term average for the long-rains season, which accounts for about 85 percent of total annual national crop production (although the drought-prone lowlands of eastern and coastal Kenya depend on the short rains for 70 percent of annual crop output). At the moment, the country is already supplied with sufficient maize to last through January 2008, yet 70 percent of the crop is still on the farm and imports from Uganda and Tanzania are already entering Kenyan markets close to both borders. If the short rains that begin in October are also favorable, a significant glut will occur during the first quarter of 2008 and prices may significantly fall during that period. Farm households in key producing areas, including the Rift Valley and western and central highlands, will remain well supplied with grain as a result of the good season, but may face lowered producer prices if prices decline significantly.

However, the drought-prone southeastern lowlands have experienced a poor long-rains cropping season, a season that is notoriously unreliable. Substantial crop failure has been reported in the southeastern lowlands, and little crop output is anticipated. If the short-rains harvest in March 2008 is highly favorable, a food security crisis may be averted. However, households in the southeast will be under severe food stress as a result of what would be two consecutive failed seasons if the October short rains are poor. The MoA has also reported that the country is well supplied with beans through January, and about 80 percent of the long-rains bean crop has been harvested. The country often bridges its structural bean deficit through imports from Uganda and Rwanda.

Maize prices have remained fairly stable during the past five months in most of the key reference markets. Figure 4 shows the trend in maize prices across livelihoods – Nairobi representing the urban livelihood; Eldoret, the high-potential surplus-producing cropping; Kitui, the marginal agricultural; and Wajir, the pastoral livelihood. The wide price disparity between markets close to production epicenters (such as Eldoret) and pastoral markets (such as Wajir) suggests that terms-of-trade for pastoralists are undermined by high cereal prices that brings to the fore their diverse vulnerabilities. Drought-prone marginal agricultural farm households, such as in Kitui (figure 4), which normally face high prices due to poor production, currently face very poor producer prices as a result of the uncharacteristic bumper harvest in March 2007. Farmers in the southern and coastal lowlands tend to sell their farm produce soon after harvest when prices are low and therefore fail to benefit from a good harvest, sustaining the cyclical nature of their food insecurity.

Long rains assessments expected to clarify food security and determine response options

The Kenya Food Security Steering Group has carried out the 2007 long-rains food security assessments that commenced during the last week of July and concluded in the middle of August. Assessments were conducted in 25 drought- and flood-affected pastoral and marginal agricultural districts, in addition to survey teams that are conducting detailed community and household interviews in 10 of the 25 districts to compliment information gathered by the rapid assessment teams. The key objective of the assessments is to determine the impacts of the 2007 long-rains season and previous seasons on the food security status of pastoral and marginal agricultural households. Preliminary results suggest that food security has markedly improved in the western pastoral, lakeshore and coastal districts, while food security has only marginally improved in the northeastern and marginal agricultural lowlands of the southeast. Good October to December short rains are critical for sustaining recovery in the northwest while mitigating a crisis in the northeastern pastoral and southeastern cropping lowlands. Comprehensive results from the assessments are intended to provide recommendations on required responses over the coming six months.

The EMOP food pipeline is favorable in July

The current phase of the emergency operation is expected to run through September 2007, under the following programs: general food distribution, including food and cash-for-assets targeted to 923,000 beneficiaries in 14 districts; expanded school feeding to 271,000 school children in nine districts; and supplementary feeding to 85,099 children and pregnant and lactating women. UNICEF is working closely with MoH and NGOs to expand their implementation capacity for the supplementary feeding programme in the 10 arid districts.

The food pipeline for July has been good, comprising a full basket of cereals, pulses and vegetable oil that was delivered in all EMOP districts. Approximately 11,400 MT of food commodities is to be distributed to some 800,000 beneficiaries during July. Currently, heavy rains are occurring in some parts of the country such as Moyale, Marsabit, Isiolo and Samburu, and the resultant impassable roads have slowed the rate of dispatches to the affected districts.

WFP also delivered CSB and vegetable oil to 10 arid districts for the supplementary feeding programmes (SFP) currently being carried out through a WFP/UNICEF partnership. With the exception of Turkana, the actual rollout of the programme in the other districts will begin in August 2007. Distribution is currently ongoing in Turkana District, where implementation begun in mid-July. The biggest challenge so far has been storage (poor conditions and inadequate space and storage equipment) at the health facilities, and the implementation of the programme has been limited to those health facilities with stores.

Conclusion

Results from the 2007 food security assessments should clarify better the impacts of the long rains on the drought and flood-affected households and propose required interventions across sectors. However, on-going recovery in the pastoral and marginal agricultural livelihoods could easily be curtailed by the absence of sufficient follow-through on suggested livelihood-strengthening interventions that were recommended after the previous assessment, in the event that another shock strikes.