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Start of Season A delayed

09 Nov 2006 11:49:00 GMT
Source: FEWS NET

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FEWS NET Monthly Report for Rwanda covering the period Sep 2006 to Oct 2006.

RWANDA
Food Security Update
OCTOBER 2006

ALERT STATUS:
NO ALERT
WATCH
WARNING
EMERGENCY

Summary and implications

Food security continues to deteriorate for the most vulnerable households, particularly in the chronically food insecure Congo-Nile Ridge and the Southern Plateau Food Economy Zones, where food stocks for the poorest households have already run out, two months after the Season B harvest. Prices have remained high this year, restricting the food access of poorer, market-dependent households as well as access to seeds for planting.

The start of season 2007A has been delayed, due to late and erratic rainfall, despite a favorable rainfall forecast for season 2007A, which anticipated sufficient rainfall across the country.

About 6,000 illegal Rwandans immigrants have been expelled from Tanzania and have to be resettled in Rwanda. It is estimated that about 60,000 Rwandans now in Tanzania with 150,000 heads of cattle will be repatriated within one year, what will pose a serious problem of land.

The validation meeting of the Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA), held by National Institute of Statistics and World Food Program, took place from the 22nd ? 24th September 2006. A draft copy was circulated to partners for their feedback. The Institute plans to officially launch the final report on the 18th November 2006, the African Day of Statistics, after consultations with partners.

Seasonal calendar

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Current hazard summary

Food prices have been above average this year and remain so. The high prices have restricted household food access, especially for poor households with limited access to land who depend on casual labor for income.
Rains have been late and erratic, and the start of the season has been delayed for over one month in many parts of Rwanda, endangering season 2007A performance.
The reduced availability of planting seeds due to high prices may also have an impact on area planted, particularly of beans.

Current food security

Fair and stable food security conditions continue in areas that received normal to near-normal harvests during season 2006B. In these areas, household food stocks from this season last 4-6 months, but only up to 4 months for vulnerable households, primarily those with limited access to land, after which they are expected to resort to casual labor during the lean period (September ? November). In areas where season B production was not adequate, food security is already deteriorating for poorer households. These areas include the chronically food insecure Congo-Nile Ridge and the Southern Plateau Food Economy Zones, characterized by high population densities, small plots with poor fertility, and a lack of agricultural inputs.

In these zones, vulnerable household food stocks ran out after 1-2 months, and casual labor has been the major response strategy since July. The poorest households, those headed by children, the handicapped, chronically ill, or elderly, rely on community assistance as they cannot easily sell their labor. The season 2006C harvest in the lowlands alleviates some of the hunger during the lean period (September-November), but season C normally contributes only about 15 percent of annual national crop production, and not all households have access to these lands.

Figure 1. Food insecurity risk

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Source: Monitoring visits and Consultations with WFP field staff and Province/District Officials. National Institute of Statistics for map layout.

Household food security is still stable in Eastern province due in part to the restrictions on the sale of produce, imposed by the local authorities after the season 2006B harvest, which has bolstered household and community food stocks. However, there has not been enough food in the markets to meet demand, and some traders are not sure of having adequate stocks to sell. While the restrictions on the sale of produce have benefited farmers with adequate access to land, they have not benefited market-dependent consumers with less access to land. However, of the principal commodities affected by the sales restrictions (maize, sorghum and beans), only the price of beans has actually increased.

Interventions by the World Food Programme (WFP) have helped to support household food security, mostly in the Eastern and Southern provinces. Their school feeding programs and support to nutrition centers benefit 300 schools and 104 nutrition centers; another 10,000 people are targeted through FFW activities.

In May 2006, the Government of Tanzania made a decision to expel illegal Rwandans immigrants living in the country, some of whom are descendants of Rwandans who have been in Tanzania since the 1920s. It is estimated that about 60,000 people with 150,000 heads of cattle will be repatriated within one year. Up to now about 6,000 persons have crossed the border, of which about 4,000 have been resettled. Many of those to be repatriated are pastoralists and will need to be relocated, which means that at least 12,000 hectares have to be found for them. All partners should be prepared to support their reintegration. A contingency plan is under preparation by the Disaster Management Task Force (DMTF).

Delayed and erratic rains endanger 2007A Season

Figure 2: Cumulative seasonal rainfall

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Source: USGS / FEWS NET

Rains have been delayed and erratic thus far into the current season. In a normal season A, planting starts mid-September, but this year, due to the late rains, planting has been delayed in many parts of the country. Figure 2 shows that rainfall this season is consistently lower than last two years and the long-term average. The cumulative rainfall during September and the first dekad of October was only 34 percent of the long-term average. In addition to the rains being late, the little rain that has fallen has been fairly erratic. Figure 2 shows that during the first dekad of September there was almost no rain (2 mm) followed by 30 days of very light rains (15, 13 and 7 mm for dekads 2 and 3 of September and dekad 1 of October , respectively). The start of season (SOS) is considered established when there is at least 25 mm of rainfall in one dekad followed by a total of at least 20 mm of rainfall in the next two consecutive decades. As shown in figure 2, this amount has not yet been reached. The Start of the Season (SOS) Anomaly (Figure 4) shows that season 2007A is late, of over one month, what raises concerns.

Some farmers planted early, anticipating rains would begin in September, but the seedlings are now wilting due to lack of sufficient rains. Other farmers have been waiting for more consistent and sufficient rains to begin planting, while others may not plant at all this late in the season. Figure 3 below shows that for spatial distribution most of the country has received very low rains (less than 50 percent of the long-term average).

Figure 3: Rainfall comparison, Sep 06 with LT

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Source: USGS / FEWS NET

Figure 4: SOS Anomaly (Oct Dek 1)

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Source: USGS / FEWS NET

The seasonal forecast called for close to normal rainfall, and the rains may still come later in the season. The current 10-day forecast shows that rainfall may occur the last week of October. If this is valid and the start of the season is so late, the rains will have to continue well into January for a good crop for those who are planting. Overall, this scenario does not bode well for season 2007A, because many farmers may not plant at all this late in the season, anticipating that the rains will stop in November or December as observed during previous seasons A. Also, a late planting now means late harvesting and risk of delayed sorghum planting in December-January 2007, which could result in a poor production of this important crop by July 2007.

Food markets, prices and trade

This month has been characterized by high but stable prices for most food commodities. The net food price index calculated for beans, sorghum, maize, rice, cassava flour, Irish and sweet potato, and bananas on 4 markets of Kigali City remained equal, increasing by 0.2 percent on average, from August to September (see Figure 5). Compared to the same period last year, prices in Kigali markets are on average 27 percent higher, with the greatest increases noted for sorghum, sweet potato, rice and cassava flour (Figure 5). The reasons for the high prices include reduced production of root and tuber crops and sorghum and the restriction on the sale of produce in the Eastern Province.

Figure 5. Key food prices index, Kigali: Mar 2005 ? Sept 30, 2006 (March 1st, 2005 = 100)

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Source: Calculations from RATES/FEWS NET prices

Figure 6. Change in average food prices in Kigali City markets Sep 2006 vs Aug 2006

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Source: Calculations from RATES/FEWS NET prices

The limited production of root and tuber crops (sweet potato, cassava and Irish potato) as a consequence of lack of quality planting materials, is worrying as they normally contribute 40-50 percent of the energy requirements in the Rwandese diet, and constitute a reserve food. The production of root and tuber crops can and should be supported by a rapid introduction of cassava mosaic tolerant varieties and improving the quality of planting materials for Irish and sweet potatoes. Their production should rapidly be boosted.

In September 2006, Rwanda imported 2,783 MT of maize (Figure 8) across the Gatuna border post with Uganda (equal to 15 percent of the 18,033 MT imported in August 2006). This decrease is partly due to the fact that the procurement period for institutions such as prisons or schools was over, and that prices increased in Uganda. Other food commodities imported across this border include Irish potato and palm oil. The main crop exported across this border during the period was passion fruit (182 MT).

Figure 7. Change in food prices in Kigali City markets, Sep 2006 vs same period in 2005

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Source: Calculations from RATES/FEWS NET prices

Figure 8. Trade across the Gatuna border (Sep 2006) in MT

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Source: RATES/FEWS NET

WFP PRRO Pipeline

For the October 2006 to March 2007 period, the WFP pipeline has a surplus of 3,995 MT (Table 2), which will allow WFP to implement its assistance program in full. The only deficit is for Corn-Soya-Blend (426 MT).

Table 2: WFP Pipeline analysis for 6 months (October 2006 - March 2007)

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