Executive summary

• After two consecutive years of good grain harvests in Mali, due primarily to good rainfall conditions, grain availability and access is stable in all parts of the country. Prices are lower than at the same time last year and running below the average for the last five years. The same good rainfall conditions have also helped create good grazing conditions for the country’s animal population.

• The most likely scenario is a normal decline in grain availability and an equally normal rise in grain prices, particularly during the lean period beginning in June/July. The outlook for conditions in livestock-raising areas is good.

• In the worst-case scenario, a delay in the start of the upcoming rainy season will make the lean period even tougher and cause localized losses of crops and income. Such a scenario includes persistent untreated chronic malnutrition and conditions conducive to a rise in malnutrition rates among children under five years of age.

Current situation

Grain production in Mali has been unusually good in the past few years, running at approximately 3.4 million MT a year. The 2006/07 harvest produced an estimated 3,428,055 MT of grain – a national record.

The condition of pasturelands around the country has been and is still good, improving animal health and boosting milk production. Right now, pastoralists and agropastoralists are busy producing and marketing milk and using the income to buy grain at what are affordable prices. The next dry season is expected to be relatively easier for livestock with the currently good condition of pasturelands and high water levels.

Markets around the country still have plentiful grain supplies. Grain prices are running well below the five-year average and are appreciably lower than at the same time last year, but have not collapsed altogether. Current price levels are profitable for farmers and, at the same time, affordable for consumers.

The low, inadequate rainfall rates at the beginning of the 2006/07 season were responsible for losses of crops and income, affecting households in Kayes, Bandiagara, Youwarou and Diré districts.

The coping strategies implemented by these groups of households, which include the increasing secondary activities such as craft-making, small-scale trade, truck farming and rural-urban migration, should offset the negative effects of these localized deficits. There is no need for any outside assistance in these areas and, in general, the national food situation is good.

Most likely scenario

The most likely scenario in Mali is continued food security in most parts of the country for the duration of the reference period (up until the end of July 2007), thanks to two consecutive years of good grain harvests.

This scenario includes:

• A normal decline in grain availability and rise in prices with the approaching lean period;
• Good conditions in livestock-raising areas (abundant pasturelands and watering holes for animals, relatively few problems with epizootic diseases and normal herd movements);
• A normal rise in malnutrition rates for children under five years of age in conjunction with the lean period;
• Timely rainfall.

Worst-case scenario

Despite the reported good grain availability throughout the country in 2006/07, Mali is chronically food-insecure, and there is widespread vulnerability to food insecurity problems. Recent assessments revealed structural as well as current food and nutrition problems in the southern part of the country, which is generally regarded as food-secure.

The World Food Program conducted a comprehensive national food security and nutrition survey in December of 2005 in conjunction with the Malian Food Security Commission/Early Warning System, UNICEF and other specialized partners to get an overview of conditions around the country. The general objective was to establish a structural frame of reference with respect to the food insecurity and nutritional status of rural households in a normal year.

The findings by the survey showed 11 percent of the child population suffering from acute malnutrition (low weight for height). The share of the child population at risk of acute malnutrition was 28 percent, which refers to children who could easily fall into the malnourished category. Nearly 38 percent of children were suffering from global chronic malnutrition (stunting), with a high percentage of children, namely 27.6 percent, considered to be at risk of chronic malnutrition.

The Sikasso and Koulikoro regions had especially high rates of chronic malnutrition, at 46 and 41.5 percent, respectively, well above the critical threshold of 30 percent set by the World Health Organization.

The Sikasso and Mopti regions had the highest general malnutrition rates, at 56 and 46.9 percent, respectively. In contrast, the northern regions of Kidal, Timbuktu and Gao were less affected by malnutrition problems due to better eating habits in general and, in particular, higher milk and meat consumption.

Malnutrition is a structural problem in Mali. The country’s high rates of malnutrition are attributable to a lack of accessible water supply and health services (only 14 percent of households have a health center in their village). In addition to access and cost issues, there are also cultural factors at play (with certain diseases attributed to supernatural phenomena, bad luck, etc.) The Malian people also have poor diets and their breast-feeding, healthy eating and hygiene practices are poor.

In light of these facts, the outlook for the next few months is for food security conditions to remain calm. Accordingly, FEWS NET recommends taking advantage of this period of calm to address the following issues:

• The need for information and awareness-building activities directed at the domestic and international community to better marshal needed resources and improve responses to food security and nutrition problems.
• Supplementary and therapeutic feeding programs need to be pursued and stepped up in at-risk areas, particularly in the Sikasso, Koulikoro and Mopti regions.
• The integrated nutritional surveillance and food security monitoring system needs to be strengthened and harmonized to better anticipate, respond to and manage nutritional crises.
• The need for long-term training and information programs to change current behavior patterns targeted at the underlying causes of food insecurity and malnutrition problems in the southern reaches of the Kayes and Koulikoro regions and the Sikasso area.
• The need for the implementation of a joint, integrated, ongoing nutrition strategy as part of the country action plan as a custom-tailored, effective, long-term approach to combating child malnutrition:
• targeting young children under five years of age, breast-feeding mothers and pregnant women in impacted areas;
• mounting simultaneous curative and preventive efforts in the same areas;
• using a community-based approach supported by health structures;
• engaging the different stakeholders involved in combating malnutrition in partnerships;
• providing a basic service package (access to supplementary and therapeutic foods, information on modified eating habits, access to health and education services, basic health and hygiene, better vaccination coverage, Vitamin A supplements, parasite control, drinking water/latrines and food security).