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Figure 1. The Southern Sudanian and Western Sahelian zones of Mali FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET

As part of their joint regular monitoring activities, FEWS NET and the Agricultural Market Observatory (OMA) conducted an assessment of household food security conditions in the Southern Sudanian and Western Sahelian zones of Mali, both of which are chronically vulnerable to food insecurity.

The Western Sahel is a semi-arid belt running along the country’s border with Mauritania to the north and the Senegalese border to the west, encompassing Nara, Kayes, Diéma, Nioro and Yélimané districts (Figure 1). The Southern Sudanian zone lies south of the Western Sahel and includes Kéniéba district (Figure 1). The main economic activities in the Western Sahelian zone are farming and livestock-raising. Despite the importance of agriculture, in general, the Western Sahel has a structural crop production deficit, which makes it a high out-migration area.

There is regular two-way trade between Mali’s Western Sahelian zone and Mauritania during the dry season, which runs from November through May.  During this time of year, foodstuffs such as wheat flour, tea and sugar are imported primarily from Mauritania, while products such as millet, groundnuts, squash, cowpeas, animal feed, and potatoes, etc. are exported by Mali to Mauritania.

Despite being a chronically food insecure area, markets throughout the Western Sahelian zone have ample supplies of grain, groundnuts, and squash thanks to the good 2006/07 harvest and improved roads along the major transport arteries. The improved roads help to speed the flow of food products to markets in this area. The combination of the good 2006/07 crop season and improved roads have meant that coarse grain prices for the month of February were generally stable and comparable to price levels at the same time last year – which was also a good crop year.

Figure 2: Seasonal calendar

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Food security outlook for the 2006/07 growing season

Favorable climatic and socioeconomic conditions in the country’s border area with Mauritania including good labor availability, good income levels and good rainfall helped foster a good 2006/07 growing season. Moreover, a major effort to improve communications (roads and telephone service) in what has always been an extremely isolated area is helping to keep prices low and stable. Pasturelands and watering holes for animals are also in satisfactory condition.

Year after year, the Western Sahel relies on trade with the southern part of the country, Mauritania, and Senegal and, in particular, on remittances from migrants living mostly in Europe, but also in other African countries, to ensure its food security.

As in the case of the Western Sahel, the household food situation is satisfactory in all other parts of the country.

Household food security

The districts included in joint regular monitoring activities by FEWS NET and the OMA lie in different agro-ecological zones. One of the major common characteristics of the areas visited as part of these monitoring operations (the Western Sahel in the north and Kéniéba in the south) is that they are all structurally production deficit areas. The breakdown is as follows:

• Nara, Nioro, Diéma, Yélimané and Kayes districts all lie in the Western Sahelian zone. This area has variable rainfall leading to regular poor production years which pose a regular threat to food security. Other periodic threats include crop predators (birds and grasshoppers), shortages of pasture and epizootic diseases.

• Kéniéba district in the southern Sudanian zone gets relatively abundant rainfall compared with the country’s other agro-ecological zones. However, Kéniéba is a large spread-out area without the benefit of oversight by a rural development agency such as the CMDT - the Malian Textile Development Company - or the OHVN - the Upper Niger River Valley Authority. The local population engages mostly in traditional gold panning activities, with a negative effect on both crop production and price levels. Due to this and other factors, the area’s farming potential has never been fully developed.

Although the Western Sahel is a structurally deficit area in terms of crop production, the main economic activity engaged in by the local population is farming. There are recurring food insecurity problems in this area due to climatic factors in general and the rainfall deficits in particular. Increasingly heavy population pressure on its declining natural resources, have resulted in steadily declining yields from grain crops and difficult conditions for livestock. Migration is an important complement to the farming activities in the Western Sahel. Year after year, crop production deficits in this area and in the southern Sudanian zone are offset by grain transfers from other parts of the country with the help of migration income.

The structural cereal production deficits in Kéniéba district are attributable to the priority accorded gold panning activities, at the expense of grain farming activities, particularly with the steady rise in international market prices for gold.

Both areas have had relatively good harvests since the 2005/06 growing season and have been seeing good conditions in livestock-raising areas thanks to the good rainfall over the last two years.

Most households in both areas engage in livestock-raising after the harvest is brought in. The Malinke, Soninke and Bambara engage in sedentary stock-raising activities, while the Fulani (Peul) and Moors engage in transhumant pastoralism or migratory herding.

Migratory herding is an extremely important activity in this part of the country. With the onset of the rainy season in June/July, animal herds head to the far northern reaches of the area, close to the Mauritanian border, to take what is referred to as the “salt cure.”  These travels take the animals away from the fields of area farmers during the growing season, placing them in salt lick areas providing them with necessary mineral salts. Once the harvest is brought in, sometime in November or December, the animals head back to their dry season grazing lands farther south, in Kayes, Kéniéba, Bafoulabé and Kita districts. Mauritanian animal herds also take part in these seasonal migratory movements.

This year, with the good pasture and water conditions for livestock, return migration by animal herds southwards is going slower than in a crisis year.

Trade and trends on grain markets

While both areas have structural production deficits, harvests for the 2006/07 growing season in the Western Sahelian zone were relatively satisfactory thanks to good, evenly distributed rainfall. For most farmers, rainfall conditions were better than they were last year. Moreover, road construction and/or repair work along major arteries has been instrumental in stepping up the flow of foodstuffs to markets in the Western Sahelian zone. According to current data:

• The Nara market gets 70 percent of its grain supplies from Bamako and 30 percent from surrounding villages (Banamba, Mourdiah, Boron). The main grain crops brought in from Bamako include millet, sorghum and rice. Groundnut supplies on the Nara market come from Didiéni, Kolokani and Boron.

• The Nioro market gets its millet, sorghum, corn and fonio from surrounding villages (Diéma, Madina Sacko, Béma) and Bamako, groundnut seeds from Kolokani and rice from Kayes.

• The Central Market in Kayes gets its supplies from Sikasso (sorghum and corn), Bamako (millet, sorghum, corn, groundnut seeds, fonio, cowpeas), Kita (groundnuts, sorghum, corn), Senegal (rice, groundnut seeds), Diéma (millet, cowpeas), Didiéni, Kolokani and Mahina (groundnuts) and Kéniéba (groundnut seeds).

• The Kéniéba market in the Southern Sudanian zone gets its grain supplies from Kayes, Senegal and Guinea.

Thus, these areas have extremely solid, diverse sources of supply. With the recent road construction and repair work along major arteries, the Western Sahelian zone can bring in grain from Bamako year-round, which minimizes the risk of a grain shortage in this area. The paving of the Diéma – Nioro road has already brought tractor trailers into Nioro, driving down the shipping cost for grain crops from 40 to 15 CFAF/kg.

Patterns of trade with neighboring countries are in keeping with previous years. Thus, right now, Mali is importing food pasta, cakes, sugar, tea, salt, etc. from Mauritania and exporting millet, animal feed, squash, bananas, groundnuts, etc. to Mauritania. This year, up until mid-February, demand for animal feed and groundnuts in Mauritania outstripped demand for millet, although there are absolutely no trade barriers to Malian exports of millet. According to certain sources, the availability of wheat flour in Mauritania as a replacement for millet could explain this phenomenon. Three trucks laden with 15 MT of millet each would leave Mali for Mauritania after each farmers’ market at the same time last year, compared with one truck at best this year.

Right now, Mali is importing groundnuts from Senegal into Kayes and exporting corn from Sikasso to that country, apparently for use in poultry-farming activities in Senegal.

Market trends

Efforts to rebuild government and community-level food reserves continue throughout both areas.  Consumer cooperatives in Yélimané and Nioro, organized by emigrants, are still bringing in supplies from Kayes and Bamako. As of mid-February, the level of the National Food Security Reserve in Kayes was at 1,149,400 MT. The Malian Agricultural Products Board (OPAM) is scheduled to buy up another 725 MT of crops on this market to complete its envisioned purchases under the ongoing Government Procurement Offer.

Current prices are comparable to price levels at the same time last year (Figure 2). According to grain traders, the seasonal upswing in prices is expected to continue, but price levels should remain well below figures for the 2004/05 season, which was a year of especially high consumer prices in the Sahel.

Figure 2. Trends in retail prices for sorghum on major markets in the Western Sahelian zone (2005/06, 2006/07 and 2001/05 average) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: OMA; Graphic by FEWS NET Mali

Looking ahead, while both areas are plagued by structural production deficits, this year, they are not at risk of experiencing any food insecurity due to a number of factors, including but not limited to:

• the improvement in on-farm consumption for many households thanks to a relatively better growing season;

• the replenishment of community-level food reserves, particularly in the Western Sahel, thanks in large part to migrant remittances;

• the rebuilding of government reserves through procurements by the OPAM under a Government Procurement Offer and by the World Food Programme (WFP); and

• the smooth flow of trade with large market centers in the southern part of the country, including Bamako district, with the opening up of both areas by road construction and/or road repair projects along major arteries.