Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions October to December07) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FEWS NET Tanzania

• Food availability in markets remains normal across the country. On-farm stocks in rural areas are generally satisfactory, except in localized areas of the 22 districts that were affected by floods or an early end of rains, leading to poor masika crop performance during the last rainy season (Figure 1).

• The start of the vuli (October to January) rains remains mixed in bimodal areas. These rains have increased in Kigoma and the Lake Victoria zone, facilitating planting and good crop prospects, but rains have yet to arrive in the northern and north eastern coastal zones (Figure 2).

• Pasture and water availability remains above normal throughout the country, and the Livestock Early Warning System’s (LEWS) 60-day forecast indicates favorable forage conditions. Terms of trade between grain and livestock are favorable to livestock keepers, leading to above-average food access for pastoral households.

• Wholesale food prices in all markets are higher than normal for this time of year, due to a combination of increased transport costs from rising fuel prices and a government campaign for standardization of grain weights at the farm gate. The highest prices are recorded in Kigoma. These price increases are likely to limit access to food for low-income households.

Seasonal calendar and critical events

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Current food security situation

Food availability in markets remains stable across the country. On-farm stocks in rural areas are also generally satisfactory, except in localized areas of the 22 districts that were affected by floods or an early end of rains, leading to poor masika crop performance during the last rainy season. Despite this overall availability, September wholesale market prices for main food staples, such as maize, beans and rice, are increasing. These increases are likely due to rising transport costs, following fuel price increases, and government campaigns to buy crops that are weighed using standardized methods at the farm gate. Higher prices are likely to limit food access, especially for low-income households in urban areas.

Perennial crops are progressing well throughout the country; bananas and tubers are at different growth stages and are sufficiently available in markets across the country. The good progress of these crops is increasing food availability in the main perennial crop producing areas of Mbeya, Kilimanjaro, Kagera, Arusha, Mara and Kigoma.

The decreasing supply of and increasing prices for cement in the country since August is likely to affect the construction industry, which provides significant employment opportunities to casual laborers in rural and urban areas across the country. This is likely to constrain the incomes of casual laborers and many construction-sector dependants (such as food vendors, carpenters, coolies, transporters and quarry miners) in these areas, thus limiting their purchasing power and access to food.

Cross-border trade between Tanzania and its neighbors (Malawi, Zambia, Kenya and Uganda) remains active, resulting in a net outflow of staples. From April to August 2007, Tanzania exported a total of 51,390 MT of staples (40,090 MT of maize, 8011 MT of rice and 3288 MT of beans) and imported 25,972 MT. Although Tanzania typically serves as a source of food for neighboring countries that frequently experience food shortages, if current outflow trends continue they are likely to lead to increased food prices, limiting the food access of market-dependent households in rural and urban areas. Although exporting goods provides an important market for farmers’ produce, it requires close monitoring to enable appropriate and timely interventions, when needed.

In pastoral areas, pasture and forage conditions in many parts of the country are normal for this time of the year. Water availability and livestock body conditions are above average. According to the LEWS’ 60-day forage forecast, forage conditions will remain stable in most parts of the country in the next two months, and animal body conditions are expected to remain above average. Terms of trade, which already favor livestock keepers and are better than last year at this time, are likely to remain favorable for pastoralists, leading to above-average food access for these households.

Figure 2. Rainfall performance as a percentage of normal (1 September – 10 October, 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS

Seasonal progress

The October to January vuli rains have increased in the bimodal rainfall areas of Kigoma and the Lake Victoria zone (Figure 2). This has facilitated planting and good crop progress to date in these areas, despite September to December forecasts that call for normal to below-normal rainfall in eastern and central areas. On the other hand, rains have not yet begun in northern and western parts of the country, where the rainfall forecast called for normal to above-normal rainfall this season. Vuli rains that normally begin in September in the northern and northeastern parts of the country have not completely started.

Markets, trade and food access

Most markets in Tanzania are well supplied with food, due to high availability following above-average harvests in 2007. However, prices of staple food commodities are higher than normal in many markets throughout the country. In particular, September maize prices are significantly higher than last year and the five-year average in Lindi and Kigoma markets (Figure 3). Rice prices have also increased in the country, except on markets in Arusha, Iringa and Mwanza, where adequate rains in the past season allowed for surplus production of this commodity. Bean prices are also higher than normal in most markets compared to this time last year (Figure 4), with prices in Kigoma substantially elevated. As beans represent the main source of protein for most households across the country, and as the price of protein substitutes, such as dried sardines from Mwanza, Kigoma and Rukwa are also high, the resultant decreased access to protein sources is likely to have a negative impact on the nutritional quality of many household diets across the country until new harvests come in. These new harvests are expected in January 2008 in bimodal areas and March 2008 in unimodal areas.

Kigoma market has shown the highest overall price increases for all commodities. This increase is likely due to a combination of factors, including: increasing grain outflows due to high consumer price differentials between Tanzania and DRC, Burundi and Zambia; increasing fuel prices, which have resulted in higher transportation costs; and a new Tanzania government policy requiring middlemen to purchase goods from farmers using standardized weights. By enforcing standard weights and measures, traders end up paying more to farmers and pass part of that increased cost onto the consumer. Despite these price increases, the availability of alternative food crops such as cassava, bananas, potatoes and yams, is providing relief to poor, market-dependent households in Kigoma, whose food access would otherwise be severely constrained.

Figure 3. Maize prices in September 2007, compared to September 2006 and the five-year average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Ministry of Industries Trade and marketing

Figure 4. Bean prices in September 2007, compared to September 2006 and the five-year average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: Ministry of Industries Trade and marketing