FEWS NET Monthly Report for Tanzania, United Republic of covering the period Oct 2006 to Nov
2006.
TANZANIA Food Security Update November 2006
ALERT STATUS: NO
ALERT WATCH WARNING EMERGENCY
Summary and implications
National food security conditions are favorable, as food is widely available and
prices favor poor market-dependent households. Poor households in Kagera Region continue facing food insecurity, however, due to decreased banana production from banana bacterial wilt (BBW),
high maize prices and cassava shortages.Heavy rainfall in the east, northeast and northwest may form temporary ponds, which increase breeding grounds for malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
Increases in the incidence of malaria can decrease farm labor availability and agriculture production, and efforts to prevent mosquito breeding by the government and households in these areas are
necessary.Soil moisture has replenished in unimodal areas, leading farmers to move forward with planting the msimu crops, and favorable weather outlooks suggest that farmers in these areas
should continue planting early. In bimodal rainfall areas, the vuli season is underway, and there are no current signs of significant threats to vuli season crops.
BBW continues to decrease banana production in Kagera Region, threatening an important source
of food and income.
Temporary ponds resulting from recent heavy rains are likely to increase breeding grounds for malaria-carrying mosquitoes.
Hydro-electrical power rationing in urban
areas continues to decrease casual labor opportunities, decreasing food access for urban households that rely on wage labor for income.
Food availability and access
In Kagera Region, insufficient food availability and
high prices are restricting poor households' access to food. BBW and the effects of strong winds during the month of October continue to decrease regional production of bananas, the staple food
crop of the region. Maize prices in Kagera Region are higher than the July prices and also higher than prices last year during the same period. Cassava mosaic disease has led to shortages
of cassava, a primary substitute crop. However, Kagera region has received heavy vuli rains and household food access is expected to recover after the start of sweet potato and bean harvests in
January after the vuli season.In the rest of the country, food is widely available in markets as traders have been moving grains from surplus areas to areas of deficit. Maize prices
normally increase at this time of year as the masika and msimu harvest surpluses begin to decrease, but prices in most markets have been decreasing since July (see figure 1). This decrease is
due to decreased demand from neighboring countries where maize was previously exported, the end of maize purchase for the strategic grain reserve, and a release of farmers' stocks in markets to get
cash to pay for agriculture inputs and labor for the current agriculture season. The low prices are benefiting market-dependant households by increasing their access to food. However, low
prices are worsening producers' terms of trade for agricultural farm inputs and labor, which will negatively impact producer household savings and decrease future agricultural
investment.Figure 1: Comparison between the Oct 06 maize prices and Oct 05 and Jul 06 maize prices
Source: Ministry of Industries Marketing and TradeMaize prices increased seasonally
in Lindi, Mbeya, Tabora and Babati. Maize prices in the Lindi and Mtwara markets were the lowest in the country in June and July, but have increased recently due to farmers purchasing maize that
they previously sold on the market after the harvest due to a lack of household storage facilities. Increased purchasing power in Lindi from the start of the cashew season has also put an upward
trend on maize prices. This price increase is beneficial for producers, but is not preventing access to food as many households in these regions have cash from cashew sales. However, the
increase in maize prices is decreasing the savings from cashew sales in households that sold their maize surplus immediately after harvest, and will limit future investment in production.
Long-term interventions investing in maize storage facilities in the region are necessary.October bean prices were higher than July prices, with the exception of Kigoma where prices
decreased. Bukoba, one of the main sources of bean supply, recorded the highest bean price increase of 48.5 percent from July to October, followed by Iringa at 41 percent. Bean price
increases in Dodoma, Babati, Musoma, Sumbawanga and Songea were greater than 30 percent. This increase in bean prices is greater than usual and has limited access to beans by poor
market-dependant households. Tanga, Dar es Salaam and Shinyanga, which are not bean-producing areas, faced bean price increases of less than 10 percent. This slight price increase in the
non-bean producing areas is likely due to the availability of alternative sources of protein through fish and sardines in Dar es Salaam and Tanga and beef in Shinyanga.Decreased hydropower
production is causing continued power rationing in Tanzania as a result of the 2005/06 hydrological drought that led to low water levels in rivers, lakes and dams. This power rationing has
decreased casual labor opportunities, thus decreasing food access for urban households that rely on wage labor for income.
Seasonal weather progress and outlook
Rainfall from October 10 to November 20 has been normal in the
western areas and lake zone (see figure 2). This suggests good vuli and msimu production seasons that are likely to lead to good vuli and msimu harvests.Figure 2:
Rainfall performance, Oct 10 to Nov 20, 2006 (RFE percent of normal)
Source:
USGSHeavy rains fell in the first dekad of November in Tanga, Manyara, Pwani, Dar es Salaam, Pemba, Zanzibar, Kagera, Mwanza and some parts of Morogoro. In areas where drainage is
poor, such heavy rains tend to cause temporary ponds and increase breeding grounds for malaria-carrying mosquitoes. Increases in the incidence of malaria decrease the availability of
agricultural labor, and thus decrease agriculture production for the season. Efforts to prevent mosquito breeding by the government and households in these areas are necessary.Although
rainfall in Singida, Mbeya, Iringa, Ruvuma, Lindi, Arusha, Kilimanjaro and some parts of Dodoma was below normal, the situation does not significantly threaten the musimu seasonal crops.
Crop development and agricultural
activities
During October and November, land preparation for planting has been the predominant agriculture activity. Soil moisture has replenished,
leading farmers in unimodal areas to move forward with planting the msimu crops. As the climatic outlook forecast indicates favorable conditions, farmers in unimodal rainfall areas should keep
planting early to take advantage of the nitrogen flush that is released in the soil when the rains start and facilitates strong crop growth.In the bimodal rainfall areas, crops are in the
vegetative stage. Where the rains started in early September and continued well, such as Rombo and Arumeru districts, the maize crop is near the tasseling stage. Farmers are weeding beans
and maize, transplanting paddy, and starting late planting in parts of Kigoma, Kagera and Mara regions where the rains did not start early. There are no current signs of significant threats to
vuli season crops.As part of the planting season, farmers are sourcing inputs and private traders are importing fertilizer. By November 2006, private companies had imported more than
239,800 MT of different types of fertilizers, and distributors are working to ensure timely fertilizer distribution before rains impede the process. The government has issued a US $16.6 million
(TZS 21 billion) subsidy on fertilizer, which is intended to stimulate fertilizer use and promote domestic food production. To implement the program, the government has signed memoranda of
understanding with traders across the country. Under this arrangement the government will cover transport costs from Dar es Salaam to the designated distribution points. For this program
to be successful the government should closely supervise and monitor the distribution and sale of the fertilizer to ensure the subsidies only benefit intended users and that subsidized fertilizer is
not exported outside the country.
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