FEWS NET Monthly Report for Zambia covering the period Dec 2006 to Jan 2007.ZAMBIA Food Security Update January 2007After a slow start of season, rains have intensified in Zambia, including the southern
parts of the country that had been experiencing persistent dry conditions thus far. While the rains have improved crop conditions, planting has already been affected by the late start, with
several areas in southern half of the country reporting late planting. This could have negative impact on yields if rains do not perform well in the second half of the season. Heavy rains
in western Zambia have flooded low lying areas along the Zambezi River in Western and Northwestern provinces. The food security situation has remained good, but localized food problems persist
in chronically food insecure areas, and these areas have requested food assistance. Among the causes of chronic food insecurity in Zambia is limited purchasing power; staple foods are available
in formal markets. Although nominal prices of maize in rural areas have been steadily increasing since October, they remain below average. In urban areas, maize prices have remained
relatively stable since August, but have started to increase in January. Maize prices in both urban and rural areas are expected to continue rising steadily until they peak in March, but should
remain at below normal levels. The outbreak of Contagious Bovine Pleuro-Pneumonia in Kazungula District (Southern Province) is reported to be under control, but continued surveillance and
effective monitoring of cattle movement is required to help contain the outbreak.Seasonal Calendar
Progression of the 2006/07 agricultural season After the
poor start of the season in southern Zambia, rains intensified during the last dekad of December and the month of January. With the rain belt oscillating over central and southern Zambia,
widespread heavy rains covered much of the country. In central and southern Zambia, the recent rainfall has improved the moisture condition for crops that had been under prolonged stress due to
the deficient rainfall earlier in the season.
Figure 1. Rainfall estimate
for January 1-10, 2007
Exceptionally heavy rains fell in most of Western Zambia, a few
parts of Central Province and in extreme eastern Zambia (see figure 1). The rains have been above normal for this time of the year for western Zambia and extreme eastern Zambia (see figure
2). In the second dekad, heavy rains continued especially in the northern parts of the country. There is the potential for flooding in several river basins, and flooding has been reported
along the Zambezi River in Western and Northwestern provinces (see figure 3). In western Zambia, rains started at least two dekads early and have been relatively heavy ever since.
Potential areas for flash floods also include parts of eastern and southern Zambia. Figure 3. Areas of concern following excessive rains
The soil water Index imagery (figure 4) shows that generally all areas received sufficient moisture to support crop
growth. Because of the delay in planting, most cereal crops in the southern half of the country are now only in the vegetative stage, when normally they would be flowering. Although the
start of season was timely in central and southern parts, there were prolonged dry spells from late November through most of December, resulting in either delayed planting or replanting. In
northern Zambia, the stage of growth is more advanced even though the start of the season was delayed by a dekad.With the heavy rains received during the last part of December and most of
January, there are fears that Kafue Basin will experience high river flow which will result into unusually fast rising water levels at the two hydo-power reservoirs. The Zambia Electricity
Supply Company has started issuing warnings of possible down stream flooding and increased water discharges from the two hydro power generating dams. From past experience, districts that are
likely to be affected are Sinazongwe, Siavonga, Gwembe, Kafue (Chiawa area), Luangwa, Mumbwa, and Itezhi tezhi. Food security situationThe food
security situation continues to be relatively good but there are localized problems in chronically food insecure areas. Preliminary findings from the rapid assessment by the VAC in the twenty
one districts requesting food assistance indicated that although some households in food deficit communities had run out of food, these food insecurity problems were not the result of any unusual
shocks, and last season was a good production season. Only a few localized incidences of either excessive or deficit rainfall during part of the season and inadequate inputs (similar to previous
seasons) were noted. In addition, the affected communities are generally subsistence farmers with low production levels and normal income activities do not generate them adequate money to meet
their basic food requirements. In most of these areas, staple food was available at functional markets, but access (physical and monetary) was the main problem. In addition, staple food
prices were within normal range while livestock prices were still relatively high, an indication that the situation in the livestock keeping areas was not as desperate as to make them sale off their
animals at low prices. The assessment has recommended two months of relief food amounting to 9,133 MT targeting 2.6 million people in the months of February and March, after which green harvests
will have begun, and longer term interventions will be needed to deal with the chronic food security problems. With the flood reports there is likely to be additional requests for food
assistance in flood affected areas. Some of the flood affected areas are among those that had been requesting for food assistance earlier (Western Province). A complete assessment of the
flood affected population and their needs, if any, has yet to be carried out as some areas are now inaccessible. Cattle Disease OutbreakThere has been an outbreak of Contagious Bovine
Pleuro-Pneumonia (CBPP) in Kazungula District of Southern Province. CBPP is endemic in Western Province and parts of North western and continues to be a threat to neighboring districts such as
Kazungula. In recent years, Kazungula has been reporting more frequent outbreaks of the disease (Early 2004 and early 2005) through spread from neighboring Sesheke District. The recent
outbreak is being attributed to the serious localized flooding which affected parts of Kazungula District during the 2005/06 production season which prompted some affected households move their
livestock to neighboring Sesheke. The first cases of the disease in Kazungula were reported in July following return of animals from Sesheke.Currently, the situation is reported to be
under control as the Veterinary Department has been testing herds and slaughtering infected animals in a bid to contain the disease and prevent spread to other areas. Farmers whose animals are
being slaughtered are to be compensated by the government. Cattle movement has also been restricted. The main concern however is effectiveness of the cattle movement ban as there have been
continued reports of some animals being moved illegally into neighboring Kalomo district. Market updateGenerally, maize prices have remained
relatively low for this time of the year, but starting to slowly rise. The levels are expected to remain below normal for the remaining part of the 2006/07 marketing season. Maize prices
are expected to peak (in February/March), albeit at levels much lower than last year.The national maize stocks are higher than usual for this time of the year and will be adequate to meet the
current season's demand and beyond. Following exports of ~21,700 MT valued at US$5million to Zimbabwe through a private trader (Ishona), the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) has sold 100,000 MT of
maize to Zimbabwe's Grain Marketing Board (GMB). According to the arrangements, GMB will be responsible for transporting the grain to Zimbabwe. So far the movement has been very slow and
only about 4,000 MT have been moved. With the moderate exports so far, FRA still has stocks in excess of 200,000 MT, of which 150,000 MT are earmarked for national strategic grain
reserves. With these supplies and a moderate level of stocks with commercial farmers, traders and millers, stock levels in country are still relatively high for this time of the year. In
addition, commercial farmers are expected to produce at least 50,000 MT of early maize to harvest in March. The ban on private sector exports remains despite the continued lobbying by the
private sector to allow exports, and is in part responsible for the relatively low prices. In rural areas, there has been a steady increase in nominal retail maize prices (for small
parcels) since October. The price increases have been significantly steeper in the low producing areas, as expected at this time of year, in order to attract maize from surplus areas.
Among the low producing areas, prices are highest in Samfya District (figure 4), which has recently been requesting for food relief assistance. The steady drop in maize prices in Luangwa could
be attributed to reduced demand as off season maize becomes available, reducing pressure on the market. Since August, maize prices in Kaoma have been higher than the other high producing
districts and fast increasing due to increased demand from the surrounding low producing districts in Western Province (figure 5). Generally, maize prices in the urban areas remained relatively
stable between August and December as a result of adequate supply on the market with respect to the demand (figure 6), and a moderate rise in prices is expected toward the end of the hunger
period.Figure 4. Maize meal prices in low producing rural areas
Based on normal
maize price trends, prices should have started rising significantly by October. The pattern exhibited in the current season is an indication of good maize supply on the market resulting from the
above normal harvest. Up to December, prices largely remained below average.In line with the relatively stable maize prices, breakfast meal prices remained stable up to December.
Roller meal prices have been steadily increasing since October with prices in the Copperbelt towns rising faster than in Lusaka as expected (figure 7). The increments have been less than
normally experienced.Figure 7. Maize meal prices in Lusaka and Ndola
Prices of both maize and meal have started rising and steady increases are expected to continue until March as market supply starts declining with commercial farmers and FRA to become
the major formal suppliers. Already, CHC Commodities had observed slightly higher prices in the first half of January, though they stabilized in the second half of the month.In December,
the FRA floated a tender for the sale of 50,000 MT of maize on the market at a reserve price of K900,000/MT (US$~210/MT). The reserve price is relatively high and therefore the sale will not
necessarily impact negatively on the market as buyers have an option to source elsewhere at a cheaper price. In mid January maize sale prices for large parcels of grain were in the range of
US$186-US$215/MT and therefore, the FRA price is in the upper end of the prevailing market price. The response from the private sector to this tender was rather poor as there are other cheaper
sources of maize currently. In recent months, informal imports from Tanzania have increased which could explain the alternative supply of maize for traders, Tanzanian maize being much
cheaper.
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