Rainfall deficits lead to decreased food security in southern Honduras

Figure 1. Rainfall deficits, expected 2007 primera production losses and current food security conditions, by livelihood zone FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: MFEWS Honduras, World Vision, PESA/FAO, DICTA/SAG

Food and nutrition security will be below normal between August and November for more than 12,700 poor households in southern Honduras as a result of production losses during the 2006 primera and postrera and 2007 primera harvests and above-normal increases in the consumer price of maize and beans. Households in the region are chronically food insecure, and assistance will be needed in the coming months in response to the reduced food access, including providing food and inputs for the postrera planting.

Rainfall in the region from May to July 2007 was significantly less than during the last two years and below the long-term average. According to World Vision Honduras and PESA/FAO, between 45 and 73 percent of the areas planted with maize for the primera harvest have been lost as a result. This could cause a reduction of 50 to 70 percent of the harvest that begins in mid-August, which represents a substantial reduction in food availability and access at the household level. Normally, a staple-cereal subsistence-producer household consumes about 30 percent of its production to meet 20 to 40 percent of its food needs. The main sources of household income are the sale of the remaining 70 percent of their production together with the sale of labor in agricultural activities during August and September, which allows them to meet the other 60 percent of their food needs. Losses of their own production as well as the inability to generate income through the sale of their production and labor will cause a food deficit of up to 40 percent for the poor households in this region.

The 12,700 households in the south are already facing high levels of food insecurity. Due to abnormal rainfall over the last decade, subsistence production of staple cereals has declined from the long-term average. Additionally, nearly 50 percent of the harvests during the 2006/07 agriculture cycle were lost, thus reducing household access to food during the most critical hunger period this year between April and August. The high international price of maize has caused a 30 percent increase in the domestic price. The incidence of malnutrition in children under five is above normal; the preliminary results of a survey carried out by the Secretariat of Health and WFP of 2,687 children show that 7.8 percent of the children are affected by acute malnutrition (severe and moderate), which is well above the national average of 1.8 percent and 2.8 percent above the local emergency threshold.

The reduction in food access between August and November could further increase the prevalence of malnutrition and cause food and nutrition security to deteriorate. A multi-sector intervention focused on improving both food access and availability among the worst-affected households will be necessary, including food assistance targeting children under 5 and pregnant and lactating women. In addition to the food assistance, inputs will need to be provided to the more than 12,700 subsistence-producing households (both with land and landless) who are currently food insecure to initiate the 2007 postrera production of staple cereals.