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Late rains deter Season A performance

28 Nov 2006 15:49:00 GMT
Source: FEWS NET

Background

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FEWS NET Monthly Report for Rwanda covering the period Oct 2006 to Nov 2006.

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RWANDA
Food Security Update
NOVEMBER 2006

ALERT STATUS:
NO ALERT
WATCH
WARNING
EMERGENCY

Summary and implications

For the most vulnerable households, particularly in chronically food insecure areas of the Congo-Nile Ridge and in the Southern Plateau food economy zones, food security continues to deteriorate and any improvement is contingent upon improving soil fertility and crop practices. Prices have remained high this year, restricting the food access of poorer, market-dependent households

The current Season A rains were late and have been erratic. The delayed onset to the rainy season is likely to have a negative impact on food security outlook for the next consumption period (January-June 2007), which is largely determined by season A 2007 (September - January) agricultural production.

Tanzania continues to expel Rwandans from its border areas. By November, 10,738 people have been repatriated, of whom 10,157 (or 95 percent) have been resettled either in their districts of origin or in new resettlement areas identified by the Rwanda government. In addition to food distributions to people in the transit center, resettlement packages consisting of a 3 month supply of maize, beans and oil are distributed to families leaving the transit center.

Seasonal calendar

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* Season B Sorghum is sown from December

Current hazard summary

Food prices have been above average this year and remain so, restricting household food access, especially for poor households with limited access to land who depend on casual labor for income.
Rains have been late and erratic, and the start of the season has been delayed for over one month in many parts of Rwanda, endangering season 2007A performance.

Current food security

Food security remains stable in areas that benefited from normal to near-normal harvests in seasons 2006B and 2006C. In these areas, household food stocks from season B last 4-6 months and are complemented by season C harvests in flood prone valleys in September and October, which normally contributes about 15 percent of annual national crop production. Nevertheless, food stocks only last at maximum up to 4 months for vulnerable households, primarily those with limited access to land, after which they are expected to resort to casual labor during the lean period (September ? November). This lean period risks being extended up to December due to late planting this season.

Figure 1. Food insecurity risk

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Source: Monitoring visits and Consultations with WFP field staff and Province/District Officials. National Institute of Statistics for map layout.

In areas where season B production was not adequate, food security is already deteriorating for poorer households. These areas include the chronically food insecure Congo-Nile Ridge and the Southern Plateau Food Economy Zones, which are characterized by high population densities, small plots with poor fertility, and a lack of agricultural inputs. In these zones, vulnerable household food stocks ran out after 1-2 months, and casual labor has been the major response strategy since July. The poorest households, those headed by children, the handicapped, chronically ill, or elderly, rely on community assistance as they cannot easily sell their labor.

Household food security is still stable in Eastern Province due in part to the restrictions on the sale of produce, imposed by the local authorities after the season 2006B harvest, which has bolstered household and community food stocks. However, there has not been enough food in the markets to meet demand, and some traders are not sure of having adequate stocks to sell. While the restrictions on the sale of produce have benefited farmers with adequate access to land, they have not benefited market-dependent consumers with less access to land.

Interventions by the World Food Programme (WFP) continue to help to support household food security, mostly in the Eastern and Southern provinces. Their school feeding programs (now stopped because the school children are on holidays between November and mid-January) and support to nutrition centers benefit 300 schools and 104 nutrition centers; another 10,000 people are targeted through FFW activities.

Tanzania continues to expel Rwandans from its border areas. As of November 7, 2006, a total of 10,738 people had been repatriated. Of this number, 10,157 (or 95 percent) were resettled either in their districts of origin or in new resettlement areas identified by the Rwandan government. In addition to food distributions to people in the transit center, resettlement packages consisting of a three month supply of maize, beans and oil have been distributed to families leaving the transit center. Partners are preparing to support their relief and reintegration. The Disaster Management Task Force (DMTF) is currently preparing an Inter Agency Consolidated Appeal and will soon present this to the government. The appeal is composed of two separate phases: a relief quick response (December 2006 - May 2007) and recovery/development assistance (June 2007 - May 2008),

Delayed and erratic rains endanger 2007A Season

During the second dekad of October, most of the country received less than 10 mm, except in the western part where it rained between 10 and 20 mm (Figure 2). Seasonal rains started in the third dekad of October (Figure 3), thus delaying the start of current season A, as planting starts normally mid-September. Figure 4 shows that rainfall this season is still consistently lower than last two years and the long-term average. The cumulative rainfall during the months of September and October was only 42 percent of the long-term average. This 3rd dekad rain allowed crops planted earlier to recover, and some other farmers to plant. However, most of the farmers who did not plant in September did not plant at all this late in the season, fearing that the rains will stop in late November or December as observed during previous seasons, particularly in the drought prone areas of the Southern and Eastern Provinces. Therefore, food production, especially of beans, the main crop of the season, will be reduced this season, even if rains continue well into January.

Figure 2. Rainfall Estimates, October Dekad 2

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Figure 3. Rainfall Estimates, October Dekad 3

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Source: USGS / FEWS NET

Figure 4. Cumulative seasonal rainfall

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Source: USGS / FEWS NET

Food markets, prices and trade

This month, prices for most food commodities continued to be high but stable. The elementary net food price index calculated for beans, sorghum, maize, rice, cassava flour, Irish and sweet potato, and bananas on 4 markets of Kigali City increased only by 1 percent on average, from September to October (see Figure 5). Beans price increased by 10 percent due to a higher demand during planting period (Figure 6). Compared to the same period last year, prices in Kigali markets are on average 31 percent higher, with the greatest increases noted for sweet potato, sorghum, and Irish potato (Figure 7). The reasons for the high prices include reduced production of root and tuber crops and sorghum and the restriction on the sale of produce in the Eastern Province.

Figure 5. Key food prices index, Kigali, March 2005 ? Oct 30, 2006 (March 1, 2005 = 100)

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Source: Calculations from RATES/FEWS NET prices

Figure 6. Change in average food prices in Kigali City markets Oct 2006 vs. Sep 2006

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Source: Calculations from RATES/FEWS NET prices

In October 2006, Rwanda imported 3,557 MT of maize, consisting of 2,376 MT of grain and 1,181 MT of flour (Figure 8), across the Gatuna border post with Uganda. This amount is 28 percent lower than the 2,783 MT imported in September 2006. The main crop exported across this border during the period was passion fruit (211 MT).

Figure 7. Change in food prices in Kigali City markets, Oct 2006 vs. same period in 2005

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Source: Calculations from RATES/FEWS NET prices

Figure 8. Trade across the Gatuna border (Oct 2006) in MT

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Source: RATES/FEWS NET

WFP PRRO Pipeline

For the November 2006 to April 2007 period, the WFP pipeline has a surplus of 2,249 MT (Table 2), which will allow WFP to implement its assistance program in full. The only deficit is for Corn-Soya-Blend (717 MT).

Table 2: WFP Pipeline analysis for 6 months (November 2006 - April 2007)

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Last updated:Tue Nov 28 20:50:48 2006