Issued in collaboration with FAO/Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU)

Humanitarian situation worsens in south; risk of poor deyr season increases

The humanitarian situation in southern Somalia continues to deteriorate, especially in the Shebelle Valley, Hiran and Mogadishu regions, where households are already extremely food insecure (Figure 1). The worst gu season in thirteen years, trade disruptions, displacement, hyper-inflation and continued civil insecurity are drastically reducing household food access and increasing humanitarian needs. Recovery from the current crisis will not occur unless civil security improves and the deyr (October to December) rainy season progresses normally. However, according to the Climate Outlook Forum for the Greater Horn of Africa, drier-than-normal conditions are expected in the coming months, with a likelihood of normal to below-normal deyr rains in much of Somalia. If the deyr season is poor, food security conditions will deteriorate even further in southern areas in late 2007 and early 2008.

In contrast, food security in livestock-dependent regions in northern and northeastern Somalia remains largely normal, and may improve with increased demand for livestock for the Hajj season in December. Drought-affected pastoralists also continue to recover in Gedo and the Juba Valley.

Continued price increases are reducing household food access, further deteriorating the food security of urban, rural, and IDP populations in the humanitarian emergency areas of Hiran, Shabelle and Galgadud regions. Commodity prices are now at peak levels in most markets in the southern and central regions of Somalia, due to the rapid devaluation of the Somali Shilling, increased transportation costs and conflict-related disruptions in trade and import activities. In Shebelle Valley, for example, the price of imported rice has increased 83 percent in the last seven months, and is currently 79 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. While prices for locally-produced cereals also tend to rise at this time of year, these price increases have also been sharper than normal throughout most of the south during the last seven months. For example, maize prices in the Shabelle Valley are now 17 percent above the five-year average for this time of year. At the same time, wage rates and employment opportunities have decreased in the Shabelle Valley due to conflict-related disruptions in trade and other economic activities. Consequently, the terms of trade between daily labor wages and maize dropped by an average of 60 percent, from 13 kg/day in January to 5 kg/day in August.

Poor water and sanitation conditions, limited dietary diversity, increased food sharing and reduced food access have caused malnutrition rates to increase above emergency thresholds in the Middle and Lower Shebelle regions. Wasting rates in these regions are 17 percent for global acute malnutrition and 4 percent for severe acute malnutrition. An outbreak of Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) in April/May exacerbated the situation. While malnutrition and morbidity rates are rising, IDPs’ and host communities’ access to basic health services is severely constrained by the ongoing conflict.

Given the already serious and deteriorating food security situation in southern Somalia, a poor 2007 deyr season will have significant negative food security impacts. If the forecast for a poor deyr season holds, rain-fed agro pastoral and gravity irrigation farmers in the south will experience a second consecutive crop failure. In addition, pastoralists in much of southern and central Somalia will face pasture and water shortages. While concerted humanitarian efforts in Gedo and the Juba Valley could help mitigate some of the negative impacts in these regions, southern Somalia has not fully recovered from the effects of several years of flooding, drought and civil insecurity, and a poor deyr season could reverse the limited recovery made in the last year.

Given the severity of the humanitarian situation in Somalia, it is imperative that the recent appeal from the multi-agency Consolidated Appeal Process be funded quickly. Contingency plans are also needed for a worst-case scenario in which poor deyr rains lead to an even more severe and widespread crisis.

Figure 1. Post-gu 2007 projected food security conditions through December 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: FSAU