| SOUTH SUDAN Food Security Update With inputs from NPA and PACT | May 2007 |
The June to September/November rainy season has begun, and farmers in many areas are experiencing an early start to the rainy season. The April to July season in bimodal areas is progressing well, despite localized delays. As is typical of May, food insecurity has increased throughout southern Sudan, as households have exhausted their food reserves from the last harvest and production is low. This annual hunger season will last until August. Food insecurity has particularly increased in the Western and Eastern Flood Plains, where structural food deficits during the hunger season are especially acute.
Similar to last year, households are expected to meet their hunger-season food needs through a combination of selling their labor for income to purchase food and their own sources of livestock products, wild foods, dry fish and the last stocks of sorghum, supplemented by subsidized grain and food aid. The government will establish its sorghum subsidy program again this year, although total program figures have not yet been released. As of March, initial estimates were that the government would subsidize up to 10,000 MT of sorghum during this hunger season in Northern Bahr El Gazal and Jonglei states, which would meet up to 30 percent of food requirements during this period for the two states. Effective distribution and affordable prices will be needed for this subsidized sorghum to mitigate food insecurity. The regular pipeline of food aid is being filled, which implies that this year’s hunger season needs will be met.
Critical events timeline
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| Critical factors to monitor from May to June 2007 |
Cropping seasons in southern Sudan | |
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Food access summary
In the Western Flood Plains Livelihood Zone, households are consuming their final stocks of sorghum, but are increasingly relying on food aid as the hunger season enters its second month. Similar consumption patterns are also occurring in the Eastern Flood Plains Zone. In the Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone, dried fish carried over from the January to April season, supplemented by wild foods and livestock products, dominate the food basket. Cassava remains the main source of food in the Hills and Mountains, supplemented by sorghum, maize, sesame and groundnuts in the Greenbelt Zone. Meanwhile, sorghum and wild foods remain key food sources in the Ironstone Zone.
Progress of the March to July rains in bimodal cropping areas; current vegetation and pasture conditions
First-season (March/April to July) rains are now fully established in bimodal cropping areas, mainly located in the Greenbelt and Hills and Mountains zones (Figure 1). The onset has generally been timely in the Greenbelt Zone, but significantly delayed in parts of the Hills and Mountains Zone (Figure 2). The delay in the Hills and Mountains make crops more vulnerable to the typical June to July dry spell, should it occur before the crops are fully established (Figure 2). Currently, crops in the two zones are at early to mid-vegetative stages and will be harvested between August and September. In the unimodal areas, the June to September/November rains started mostly in April, signaling an early start of the season, especially in the Nile Sobat Zone (Figure 2). In the unimodal areas, planting reaches its peak between early and mid-June.
| Figure 1: Status of onset of rains 11-20, May 2007 | Figure 2: Status of start of season anomaly May 11-20, 2007 | |||
| Figure 3: Vegetation anomaly as of 11- 20, May 2007 | Figure 4a: Increased rains during 9-15 May, 2007
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Figure 4b: Increased rains during 16-22 May, 2007
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| Note: 1 Dekad or Dek = 10 days Season/crop data source: NOAA and USGS. Vegetation data source: NASA. Graphics: FEWS NET | ||||
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Current vegetation and associated pasture conditions range between average and above normal in the western half of the country. However, conditions are below normal in some eastern parts, especially in the Pastoral Zone (Figure 3), but these are expected to improve following recent heavy rains (Figures 4a and 4b). Apart from a short dry spell in June or July that is common to most parts, the rains are likely to be sustained through June or July in both unimodal and bimodal areas.
Food security updates by livelihood zone
| Figure 6: Updates from various zones of southern Sudan |
| Source: FEWS NET |
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The May to August hunger season has begun, coinciding with a timely start of the June to September/November cropping season predominant in the central and northern half of southern Sudan. The June to September rains have begun in most areas, and households are busy preparing land for planting. Though mixed, a significant number of areas signal an early to timely start (Figure 2). Meanwhile, the April to July cropping season in bimodal cropping areas has progressed into its second month.
As of March, a rough minimum estimate of up to 10,000 MT of government subsidized grain, which constitutes up to 30 percent of hunger season food requirements in Northern Bahr El Gazal and Jonglei states, was reportedly being planned for sale during this hunger season. Over 35 percent had already been delivered to storage locations in Northern Bahr El Gaza by March. This subsidized sorghum is expected to be available during this year’s hunger season and could significantly mitigate food insecurity as it did last year. The actual available quantities and prices in various markets will impact the effectiveness of the sorghum in improving food security. The subsidized sorghum will be further supplemented by food aid, which was pre-positioned in various areas from January to May. WFP has received over 70 percent of 2007 food requirements and resources, implying that this year’s hunger season needs will be met.
Western Flood Plains Zone
The hunger season is more pronounced in the northern part of this zone. Here, household stocks of sorghum, sesame and groundnuts harvested in October 2006 have reached their lowest, especially among poor households. Other sources of food such as fish and wild foods are at their lowest point of availability, and improvements are not anticipated until the onset of the harvest in September. Labor and petty trade opportunities, which are major sources of cash and food among poor households, are likely to diminish with the onset of the June to September rainy season that will severely hinder movement of people and goods. It is also when most households reduce labor that generates cash income to concentrate on cultivating their own crops. Typically, these households tend to access only up to 80 percent of their food needs during the hunger season. Some improvements are expected this year, due to the anticipated availability of and access to government-subsidized sorghum, supplemented by food aid. As of March, an estimated 3,600 MT of sorghum was in storage for this purpose. However, there are no current updates on whether the sorghum has been released to local markets. The subsidized sorghum initiative started during last year’s hunger season, and this reportedly reduced the magnitude of the hunger season in some parts.
Meanwhile, the June to September rains have begun in some areas, especially in parts of Warrap State. Households are beginning to plant in some areas, and the planting is expected to peak in mid-June. Similarly, an early start of the June to November season predominant in the southern part of this zone has begun. Though some farmers have started planting, peak planting is not expected until mid-June. In these areas, food security is more stable and the hunger season tends to be less severe, as harvests are often better and last longer than in the northern parts. Also, the shea butter oil crop harvest peaks during the hunger season.
Eastern Flood Plains Zone
Pasture, water conditions and milk access remains favorable, and this will be sustained through October-November. As in the Western Flood Plains, the hunger season has started, and is expected to be more severe, especially in eastern parts of Jonglei State due to reduced harvests following flooding in August last year, and cattle raiding insecurity which resulted in loss of cattle. Part of the hunger-season food shortages are being met by food aid, but will also be supplemented by government-subsidized sorghum. As of March, an estimated 5,000 MT of subsidized sorghum was being planned and targeted for sale in Jonglei State this year.
The onset of rains in this zone is mostly normal, except for one area in the eastern part where the rains began at least one dekad late. However, a more conclusive onset will be established in June. Latest updates from Norwegian People’s Aid (NPA) indicate significant rains in the northeastern parts, which has triggered the return of people from dry-season water sources. Households have now prepared land to plant maize, groundnuts, sesame and sorghum.
Tensions continue over cattle-raiding activities by the Murle of Pibor County, located in the Pastoral Zone. Persistent cattle raiding remains a great threat to stability and food security in this zone. These attacks and insecurity are unlikely to cease unless an extensive disarmament of Murle pastoralists is implemented. Additionally, no significant progress has been made over negotiations between the Lou and Jikany sub-tribes over relocation of some Lou households from areas originally owned by the Jikany. These negotiations are critically important, as they determine the dynamics of peace and dry-season grazing, fishing and trade in the eastern parts of this zone. Historically, the two sub-tribes have had years of conflict, which have resulted in the Jikany being displaced from their areas and replaced by the Lou. The negotiations started last month, and are geared towards facilitating the return of displaced Jikany to their original homes. This implies that the Lou occupying original Jikany areas will need to relocate, which could be another potential source of conflict.
Nile-Sobat Rivers Zone
An early start of the June to September rainy season has occurred in most parts of this zone. This early start has positive impacts on food security, including facilitating early planting, the return of livestock from dry-season grazing areas and the typical short fishing spell in June in areas near the Nile River. However, it also has negative implications including likely early and above-normal flooding, which significantly reduces crop performance and yields. However, this is not conclusive yet, as the season is still at a very early stage. Currently, vegetation conditions are above normal in almost all parts of this zone, implying that pastures for livestock and access to milk by households is favorable. A significant increase in milk yields is also expected around July.
Meanwhile, food security conditions remain normal. Although reserves from last year’s harvest are now low, significant stocks of dried fish and some wild foods carried over from the just-ended January to April dry season, as well as water plants supplemented by livestock products, are the main food sources being consumed. Also, households are in a position to purchase additional sorghum from towns including Malakal, Bentiu, Phom, Tonga, Leer and Bor and store for consumption in the remaining hunger season. Rural households in this zone have the most cash income of any livelihood zone, derived from selling fish that is shipped to northern Sudan, income from relatives abroad and income earned in Unity State oilfields and large mechanized agricultural farms in Upper Nile State (Renk and Melut).
Hills and Mountains Zone
Food security conditions are normal, particularly in the eastern and central parts of this zone where two cropping seasons are more reliable. Households are exhausting their last stocks of sorghum, sesame, cowpeas and groundnuts and are increasing their reliance on cassava. Cassava consumption will continue until August, when the first-season harvest is due.
Meanwhile, the April to July cropping season has entered its second month. Rains were delayed for up to one month in some parts. Current crop conditions are good, but the delayed onset of rains could negatively impact the next harvest, especially if the typical June to July spell occurs before the crops are fully established. Depending on its timing, the dry spell could significantly reduce yields in areas where rains were delayed.
Generally, this zone faces complex long-term problems that continue threatening food security. One of the many problems is persistent attacks by the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) of Uganda, whose attacks have escalated in this zone over the last 10 years, as well as attacks by unknown armed groups. Peace negotiations between LRA and the Ugandan Government continue in Juba, and recently resumed towards the end of April. The talks are significant to households in this zone because of their proximity to northern Uganda where LRA attacks are concentrated. The attacks often extend into this zone, and have displaced households and have constrained potentially lucrative cross-border trade between Uganda and Sudan which could be a significant source of cash income for many households. Also, LRA attacks make commodities more expensive as traders incur more expenses hiring security and traveling in convoys. Though fear of increased attacks has slightly decreased following the resumption of talks in April, the possibility of future attacks remains high given the frequent and repeated stalling of the talks, which is often followed by vengeful attacks. These on-and-off peace talks have a negative impact on security in the region. Thus, the presence of LRA and other armed groups limits food security improvements and post-war recovery efforts in this zone. Most critical is the impact of LRA on the potential return of Sudanese refugees that are expected to return to this zone. An estimated 120,000 Sudanese refugees from this zone are currently living in northern Uganda. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) has reached an agreement with Sudan and Uganda to begin the repatriation of some of the refugees to this zone starting August 2007, but peace and stability are critical for voluntary return of these refugees.
The other problem is persistent armed attacks combined with inter-tribal cattle raiding between pastoral households that are predominantly located in the eastern parts of this zone, in Budi, Kapoeta and Pibor counties. The latest raids occurred in Budi County in mid-May, and were conducted by Toposa pastoralists, killing over 50 people and looting an estimated 800 cattle. These raids were conducted at the onset of a scheduled peace negotiation activity facilitated by PACT, a peace and capacity building agency, thus losing any gains that have been made in previous negotiations. Pastoral communities in this zone are known for frequently violating agreements, implying that peace negotiation activities are unlikely to solve cattle-rustling problems unless accompanied by government-managed disarmament programs and strengthened governance in all affected parts. Civil security is hoped to improve once a planned disarmament center – the Southern Sudan Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Commission (SSDDRC) – is opened in Torit County.
Greenbelt Zone
Food security remains stable in the Greenbelt Zone, which typically has surplus food throughout the year. Here, households are still relying on the second-season crop harvest that concluded in January 2007. Current food sources include sorghum, maize, cowpeas, cassava, sweet potatoes and millet. Meanwhile, first-season crops planted between March and April are progressing fairly well. Remote-sensing data indicates that the crops are in good condition, even in northwestern areas where the onset of the first-season rains was delayed. These crops will be harvested in August.
Ironstone Plateau Zone
An early start of the June to September cropping season has occurred in this part of the country. This is likely to trigger an early return of households from dry-season settlements and facilitate either clearing of more land or early planting. Due to low water retention capacity of ironstone soils and general terrain in this zone, water is a critical determinant of when and how much land is cleared in any given season.
Arid/Pastoral Zone
Similar to last month, vegetation and pasture performance continue to be favorable following good April to July rains, especially in the southeastern tip of Kapoeta County. These rains are critical for pasture growth and also determine food security between June and September. During this time, household members tending cattle return with the cattle from the long-distance dry-season grazing areas to wet-season homesteads, so that milk and other livestock products are processed and stored to be consumed when cattle migrate again after end of rains in October.
Meanwhile, pasture conditions in the central parts (mostly southwest Pibor County) of this zone are below normal (Figure 3), possibly due to poor rains. However, this is expected to significantly improve between May and June when the June to September rains are fully established.
Tension has developed over cattle raids conducted in mid-May by Toposa pastoralists of Kapoeta County on Budi County, weakening associated peace-building activities currently being conducted in the region. As in the Hills and Mountains Zone, disarming pastoralists in this zone would greatly enhance peace and stability in this zone.
