FEWS NET Monthly Report for Zimbabwe covering the period Dec 2006 to Jan 2007.ZIMBABWE Food Security Update January 2007As the peak hunger period approaches many farming household's maize,
sorghum and millets stocks have run out, and they have turned to the market for their supplies of staple food. While maize grain was generally available in most parts of the central and northern
districts of the country, grain availability in the southern districts including areas in the Zambezi valley was critical in November 2006. Maize meal was also generally available in most
shopping centers throughout the country in November, but supplies of the commodity became erratic from the second week of December in some urban areas, including Bulawayo, Mutare and Chipinge.
Many rural and urban households are struggling to earn enough income to purchase adequate food given the ever-rising cost of living and the continuing economic decline. The official annual rate
of inflation was 1,098.8 percent in November 2006, and the economy is officially estimated to shrink in year 2006 by about 2.5 percent.Once more, disagreements between the government and bakers
on the price of bread have reduced the supply of bread on the market. Bread could hardly be found on the formal market from mid November, but was relatively available on the parallel market at
exorbitant prices beyond the reach of the poor and households vulnerable to food insecurity. Cooking oil was also in short supply in November.Food assistance programs by the World Food
Programme and it partners, C-Safe and others, continued to play their part in not only increasing food availability but in putting the food into the hands of vulnerable households. In November
2006, more than 3,000 MT of food was distributed to at least 500,000 people. The onset of the rains brought some relief to some poor households in the rural areas as it brought with it increased
demand for casual labor related to agriculture, particularly for land preparation and weeding. Most of this labor is paid for in-kind with food. The start of the season picture is
showing a normal to an early start of the rainfall season for the greater part of the country, and by end of the first half of the season, most of the country had received normal to above normal
rainfall. However the rains were erratic and patchy and presented a serious challenge to farmers in establishing a crop. While this could compromise area planted to crops in the 2006/07
agriculture season, a better picture of area planted could be available by the end of January 2007.The forecast for the remaining second half of the rainfall season is not very positive; they
point towards increased chances of below normal rainfall for almost the whole country. An El Ni?o was detected in September 2006, and is likely to continue until at least early 2007. El
Ni?o is sometimes associated with reduced rainfall in parts of southern Africa including Zimbabwe. The country, therefore, needs to prepare for the likelihood of below a normal harvest in
2007.Seasonal calendar
High annual inflation - measured at 1,098.8 percent in November 2006 - continues to erode household
purchasing power.
Fuel and fertilizer shortages could hinder agricultural production in the 2006/07 season. (Seed supplies are adequate.)
The cereal deficit for the 2006/07
marketing year is projected at about 22 percent, with the highest deficits in the southern districts as well as the western and eastern margins of the country
Patchy and erratic rainfall in
the first half of the 2006/07 rainfall season and increased chances of below normal rainfall in the second half of the season.
Normal to early start
of the 2006/07 season, but patchy and erratic rainfall distributionThe 2006/07 rainfall season started in November for nearly all parts of the country save for the southern-most
district of Beit Bridge which hardily receives significant rainfall amounts in normal years. The start of the season picture is showing a normal to an early start of the rainfall season for the
greater part of the country (figure 1). The central and southern districts that include the greater part of Masvingo province, southern parts of Manicaland province eastern parts of Matebeleland
South and the southern half of Midlands provinces received effective rainfall 10 to 20 days earlier than usual. Few farmers were ready to plant with the first rains, the majority of farmers,
both smallholders and larger scale farmers used the obtaining soil moisture to till their land. Crops that could have been planted in the central parts of Manicaland province with the first
rains that fell in these parts in the early part of October could have suffered severe moisture stress up to mid November. The first rains were followed by a dry spell that lasted for up to
twenty consecutive days in the area marked by the red circle in figure 2.Figure 1. Start of the rainfall season anomaly for 2006/07 rainfall season
Source: USGSThe major rain bearing systems for
Zimbabwe failed to effectively establish for the greater part of the first half of the 2006/07 rainfall season and patchy isolated thunderstorms have characterized the rainfall season up to the end of
December 2006. However, more than half of the country had received between 75 percent and 125 percent of their long term mean by end of December 2006. Some parts of Harare, Mashonaland
West, south of Manicaland and, northwest of Matebeleland South had received less than 75 percent of their long-term averages by the end of the first half of the season. Kezi (Matebeleland South)
and Gweru (Midlands) had the highest percentages of normal rainfall. Beitbridge has risen to 131 percent of normal, up from 67 percent of normal last week.As a result of the patchy and
erratic rainfall in the first half of the 2006/07 rainfall season, it has been difficult for most farmers to establish a crop. Many have been forced to replant two to three times. These
challenges have mostly pushed area planted to crops by the end of December 2006 lower than what would traditionally have been at the same time. A better picture of total area planted to crops
could be available at the end of January 2007.The forecasts for the remaining second half of the rainfall season is not very positive; they point towards increased chances of below normal
rainfall for almost the whole country. An El Ni?o was detected in September 2006, and is likely to continue until at least early 2007. El Ni?o is sometimes associated with reduced rainfall
in parts of southern Africa including Zimbabwe. The country, therefore, needs to prepare for the likelihood of below a normal harvest in 2007. Peak hunger period sets inThe Zimbabwe vulnerability assessment estimates that about 1.4 million rural people will not have sufficient entitlements with
which to access adequate food during the peak hunger period in December 2006 and January 2007. The population in need could have risen since economic hardships are deemed to have increased since
May 2006, when the data for the rural assessment was collected. Food assistance programs by the World Food Programme and it partners, C-Safe and others, continued to play their part in not only
increasing food availability but in also putting the food into vulnerable households. In November 2006 more than 3,000 MT of food was distributed to at least 500,000 people. If the
vulnerable group feeding planned to start in January 2006 takes off many more needy people will benefit. Cost of living continues to riseThe official rate of
inflation, which independent economists believe is on the conservative side, continues to hover above 1,000 percent since April 2006 with serious consequences on the purchasing power of incomes of all
Zimbabweans (figure 3). Among the most affected were pensioners, people with fixed incomes and the minimum wage earners. Unfortunately, this group comprises of the majority of Zimbabwe's
urban population which is predominantly dependent on the market to access food. As a result of the hyperinflation the CSO food poverty line went up almost ten times between December 2005 and
November 2006; it increased by an average of 23 percent every month during this period. This rate of increase is only comparable to some of the highest annual rates of inflation in the SADC
region. The inflationary pressures are expected to be sustained well into the year 2007. Figure 3. Trends on annual inflation, industrial minimum wage rates,
and national food poverty lines
Source: CSO and LedrisFaced
with the ever rising cost of living, poor urban households are engaging in multiple informal income generating activities. Activities with low capital entry such as food vending are most
common. Most vendors break their food wares into small parcels, popularly known in the vernacular as tsaona, meaning serious trouble. The tsaona is usually enough for preparing a meal for
one person. After a day's work a bread-winner from a poor household often passes by a food vending market and use the day's earnings to buy a maize meal tsaona, a cooking oil tsaona and a bundle
of vegetables for that evening meal. For a significant number the following day's meal is not certain. Cross-border trading and remittances from relatives working in the diaspora
continue to make a significant contribution to the livelihoods of poor urban households. However opportunities for both formal and informal employment continued declining with the
shrinking of the Zimbabwean economy. Since year 2000 the major economic sectors monitored by the CSO has declined by about 25 percent (figure 4). In the year 2006 Zimbabwe's gross domestic
product (GDP) is estimated to fall by about 2.5 percent when compared with the year 2005 GDP.Figure 4. Percentage growth in Zimbabwe's major economic sectors
Source: SCOThe ZimVac urban assessment conducted in mid November 2006
will attempt to provide more details on the poverty, food security, health and nutrition situations in Zimbabwe's urban areas. Year 2006 winter wheat harvest fall below
national annual requirementsThe 2006 winter wheat production season came to an end in November with a few harvestings of the crop failing to beat the onset of the 2006/07 rainfall
season. Some considerable amounts of the winter wheat were damaged by rain. The delayed harvesting was caused two primary problems. There was a critical shortage of combine
harvesters and fuel. A sizeable number of farmers planted their wheat late, well after the mid June cut of date. As of mid- December the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) reported that the
parastatal had purchased about 120,000 MT of wheat. While still more deliveries are still to be made, it is highly unlikely that the total domestic wheat production for Zimbabwe in 2006 would
surpass 135,000 MT. Since Zimbabwe is estimated to require about 400,000 MT of wheat in a year, a shortfall of about 265,000 MT is projected between the current harvest and the one for next
year. The projected wheat deficit does not however explain the bread shortages experienced towards the end of November and the first half of December. Bakers were arguing that the
controlled price of bread Government set in September was no longer viable; the cost of producing bread had eaten into the profit margin as a result of inflation. Consequently, bakers reduced
supply of the standard ordinary loaf of bread onto the market and a parallel market for bread has emerged. An ordinary loaf of bread whose controlled retail price is Z$290 was being sold for
more Z$800 on the parallel market. These prices are well beyond the reach of poor households for whom bread traditionally constituted a significant part of their
diet. Need for a better understanding of the contribution of urban agriculture to household food securityEngaging in urban cropping of maize has been one of
the major and widespread coping strategies for many urban households in Zimbabwe. The number of people participating in and the area covered by urban agriculture has increased tremendously in
Zimbabwe since the 1980s. Most open spaces within residential and industrial areas that used to support grass and shrubs have been turned into fields of relatively well managed farm lands.
Produce from these fields now make a significant contribution to the food consumed by many urban households in the Zimbabwe. With the start of the current season urban farming farmers throughout
the country have established large tracks of maize fields in and around the urban areas. The contribution of the harvest from this farming sector in Zimbabwe has often been ignored and sometimes
under-estimated. The need to understand the role and magnitude of the contribution urban agriculture is playing in Zimbabwe has never been greater.
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