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Figure 1. Current food security status FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: ALRMP/KFSSG Assessment Team

Figure 2. Rainfall anomalies: March 20 – June 10, 2007   FULL-SIZE IMAGE   Source: USGS/FEWS NET

Food security indicators in the highly vulnerable areas of the country, namely, the pastoral and marginal agricultural lowlands, are expected to remain largely stable in the short term, a consequence of exceptionally good short rains and in spite of an erratic 2007 long rains season. Drought and flood prone areas will require judicious monitoring, because areas reporting significant improvements in food security could easily mask out areas where food security may begin to deteriorate in the next three months due to a combination of poor long rains, floods, conflict between pastoral groups and an upsurge in water and vector borne diseases. The implementation of recovery and livelihood-building interventions remains central to arresting rising chronic food insecurity, especially in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, including places that have experienced successive good seasons in the recent past. While the long rains cropping season remains in its early stages, the season has performed well so far in critical highland areas, maintaining favorable outlook for the domestic cereal supply. However, crop prospects in marginal areas are bleak.

Mixed long rains outcome across the country

The long rains have ended in most of the pastoral rangelands situated in the northern, northwestern, eastern and southern areas of the country as well as in the cropping lowlands of southeastern, central and the coastal areas outside the coastal strip. Light rains are expected to continue in the Mt Kenya highlands and along the coastal strip. More substantial rains are anticipated through August in the highlands of the Rift Valley and parts of Western Kenya, improving crop prospects in the key cropping areas of the country. The 2007 long rains were generally mediocre in the drought prone pastoral and southeastern marginal agricultural areas of the country. The rains were characterized by poor temporal and spatial distribution, where few areas of intense rains were interspersed with substantial areas of poor rains. However, the impact of the below average season was moderated somewhat by exceptionally good October-January rains during the previous season. Figure one shows significant rainfall anomalies during the long rains season.

Heavy rains caused severe flooding in the coastal districts of Tana River, Lamu, Malindi, Kilifi and Mombasa districts. The Kenya Red Cross has estimated that 23,000 people were affected by displacement, crop loss, loss of access to physical facilities and increasing household vulnerability to water and vector-borne diseases, especially in Lamu Malindi, Kilifi, Tana River and Mombasa districts. While the Kenya Red Cross has distributed non-food items to a significant proportion of the affected households and 2,000 MT of food from the Government of Kenya (GoK), the one-time response is unlikely to fully meet emerging food and non-food needs. Interventions by the Ministry of Water and Irrigation have temporarily held back the flooding along Lake Victoria and particularly around Budalang’i, using about 10,000 sandbags, with the intention of repairing broken dykes after rains subside.

Favorable pastoral indicators in spite of below average season

The first dekad of June signals the end of the long rains across the pastoral districts. Rains varied widely and were characterized by poor spatial and temporal distribution, especially in the eastern and northern pastoral districts. In most pastoral districts, areas of good rains were interspersed with substantial areas of below normal rains. For example most of Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Samburu districts and parts of Marsabit, Wajir and Isiolo districts received heavier than normal rains while most of the rest of the pastoral areas received poor rains as elaborated in figure 2. The impacts of a less than average season in several areas are not immediately visible, moderated by exceptionally heavy rains in the previous October-December short-rains season. In spite of below average rains in several areas, the Arid Lands and Resource Management Project (ALRMP) has reported that, pasture, browse and water availability is good in most areas, including in Mandera, Tana River, Turkana, Isiolo, Kajiado, Baringo and West Pokot districts. However, vegetation and water sources are depleting rapidly in areas that reported very poor rains, such as northern Garissa, the hinterland of Tana River and the lowlands of Isiolo District.

Subsequently, migrations in search of water, pasture and browse remained fairly limited through early June except from northern Garissa toward Isiolo and from the hinterland of Tana River District, toward the river delta. Such migrations are expected to increase earlier than usual especially in areas that received poor long rains. In contrast, migrations resulting from conflict were reported in Turkana, Marsabit, Tana River, Baringo and Samburu districts as pastoralists sought to move to safer areas so as to protect their lives and livelihoods. Unfortunately, resources are rapidly depleting in areas where livestock have clustered such as in the central divisions of Turkana District that are home to pastoralists fleeing from conflicts in the south. One of the worst conflict-affected areas was Loiyangalani in Marsabit District, where 10 pastoralists lost their lives during May. The fragility of peace initiatives is often underscored by sporadic outbreak of conflict even in the midst of peace negotiations.

The body and health conditions of livestock have remained favorable across most of the pastoral livelihood zone through the long rains season. The ALRMP has reported that the widened vaccination coverage in most pastoral districts has contributed to the general reduction in livestock mortalities. However, camel mortalities have escalated in the predominately northern and eastern pastoral districts of Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Moyale and parts of Isiolo District, suspected to be as a result of trypanosomiasis – unusually, a tick-borne disease that often thrives in dense vegetation and cooler environs. The veterinary department is in the process of confirming the disease in a bid to control ongoing livestock mortalities.

Favorable body and health conditions, especially among cattle, sheep and goats, continued to influence rising livestock prices; in most instances, prices are 20-30 percent higher than their respective five-year averages. Livestock prices rose in Garissa, Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, Baringo, West Pokot and Isiolo districts and declined in Moyale while stabilizing in Kajiado District. In all instances, current prices are higher than their June averages. Pastoralists are eager to rebuild their herds following substantial improvements in grazing fundamentals over the past year, after a succession of three to six poor seasons that caused significant reduction in household livestock units. Livestock prices are likely to remain firm in areas that received good rains during the season, but are likely to decline significantly in areas that experienced poor rains, necessitating extended trekkings that invariably compromise livestock body and health conditions. Livestock terms of trade have similarly improved but were mitigated by a rise in cereal prices in districts such as Mandera and Tana River districts, after floods destroyed crops as well as key supply routes. However, cereal prices have appreciably declined in Moyale District that is supplied by grain from Ethiopia, maintaining pastoral purchasing capacities.

Rates of child malnutrition that began to decline in May 2006 continued on a downward trend during the month in all pastoral districts, with the exception of Mandera and eastern areas of Marsabit District. The May 2007 rates, measured using the Middle Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC), are 10-30 percent lower than the five year averages in most instances. A combination of factors has helped reduce the rates that were well above the World Health Organization’s emergency threshold in some districts. These factors include the fairly widespread supplementary and general food distribution that began in March 2006, improved milk yields over the past year, and the implementation of health interventions proposed at the height of the humanitarian crisis in March 2006. However, water and vector borne diseases have mitigated significant improvements in child nutrition in some areas, including West Pokot, Moyale and Turkana districts, where a cholera outbreak reported in April continued through May.

The 2007 long rains season has promoted measured regeneration of pasture, water and browse, even though rains were erratic in substantial areas, particularly in the northern and eastern pastoral areas. However, current favorable environmental conditions may not be sustained through the beginning of the short-rains season in mid-October in areas that received poor rains. Subsequently, availability of migration options in dry season grazing areas as well as in the rangelands that received favorable rains remain central to consolidation of the livestock’s current good health and body conditions. Unfortunately, conflict and insecurity often tend to preclude access to favorable alternative grazing areas. This forces pastoralists to cluster their livestock in the few safe areas, depleting local resources, encouraging more competition for scarce resources and creating an environment that promotes more conflict. An effective conflict mitigation and prevention mechanism, coupled crucially by the implementation of livelihood recovery interventions that are intended to strengthen the recovery and resilience of the pastoral livelihood as a whole, remain central to reversing chronic food insecurity among pastoralists.

The EMOP is expected to target an estimated 1.3 million people through September

The current phase of the emergency operation is expected to run through September 2007, under the following programs: general food distribution including food and cash-for-assets targeted to 919,000 beneficiaries in 14 districts; the expanded school feeding to 271,000 school children in nine districts; and the supplementary feeding program to 120,000 children, and pregnant and lactating women. UNICEF is working closely with MoH and NGOs to expand their implementation capacity for the supplementary feeding program.

General food distributions for May began in all districts and were completed in few districts, namely in Isiolo, Moyale and Wajir. The rest of the May distributions continued into June. It is expected that about 800,000 beneficiaries will receive some 11,140 MT of food aid commodities during the May distribution cycle. The EMOP food pipeline was satisfactory in May, with the expectation that the full basket will be distributed in all the EMOP districts in June as well. In the remaining four EMOP districts where the Food for Assets program will be implemented, technical preparatory work continued in Kinango, Kitui, Mwingi and Taita Taveta. Two workshops were held, one for the Kitui and Mwingi GoK counterparts and co-operating partners, and another for counterparts from Kwale and Taita Taveta. Project identification started in May and it was expected that the projects would be approved, so that work can start in June.

On 17 May, UNICEF and WFP signed an agreement on supplementary feeding in ten pastoral districts. According to the agreement, the new program will be implemented through health centers with the aim of strengthening local capacities in tackling moderate malnutrition. WFP will provide food for the program, while UNICEF is funding three additional nutritionists in every pastoral district to carry out training for health workers as well as support the program’s impact monitoring. UNICEF and WFP are planning to reach 120,000 under-fives and pregnant and lactating women within the duration of the program through June 2008.

Favorable crop prospects in the highlands contrast poor crop prospects in marginal areas

The main cropping season, the long rains, is in its third month and is expected to run through December in the ‘grain basket’ areas of the country, namely the Rift Valley and parts of the western highlands. However, in the southwestern and central highlands and in the drought-prone marginal agricultural lowlands of the coast and southeast, the long rains season is expected to conclude toward the end of July and through August as the maize crop is harvested. The bulk of the long rains output is derived from the Rift Valley and western highlands, as shown on figure 3. The two geographically small cropping areas account for nearly 80 percent of national long rains maize output. The contribution is highly significant considering that long rains maize output accounts for 85 percent of total national annual maize output. Crop conditions in the highland areas are favorable so far, yet the season runs through December in these key areas, and significant changes could occur in the interim.

Figure 3. Contribution to national long rains maize output by province   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source of Data: MoA

Crop output is expected to be poor in the coastal and southeastern Kenya lowlands, two areas that account for about seven percent of total national long rains maize output as illustrated in figure 3. Poor production in the lowlands has resulted from a combination of a delayed season onset followed by erratic rains through the end of the rainy season. The Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) has reported that significant quantities of the two-season crops, including pigeon peas and short maturing crops such as beans, will be harvested, but little maize harvest is anticipated, because of poor rainfall during the crops’ critical phenological stages. While the long rains is the minor season in the lowlands, medium to long term household food security remains fragile in spite of an exceptional short rains harvest. Households in the southeastern and coastal lowlands are characterized by limited livelihood options, and any single poor season tends to compound considerable chronic food insecurity.

Overall the MoA estimates that 1.2 million hectares have been put maize as compared to the 10-year long rains average hectarage of about 1.1 million. Producer maize prices have held firm, remaining above average levels over the past two years, creating an added incentive to expand maize production particularly in key growing areas. Preliminary estimates indicate that 2.8 million MT will be harvested during the 2007 long rains season, comparing favorably with a normal long rains maize harvest of 2.18 million MT. However, the bulk of the long rains harvest will occur in November and significant revisions are likely to occur before then. The current domestic maize supply is sufficient to supply the country through October. As a result, maize prices have remained stable over the past three months and are about 10-15 percent higher than average in key reference markets. The exception is in the southeastern short rains-dependent areas, where markets prices remain nearly 20 percent below average, to the disadvantage of drought-prone producers.

Conclusion

Despite late and below-normal rainfall during the 2007 long rains season, particularly in eastern pastoral areas, food security indicators have improved for many pastoralists, at least for the short term. Exceptionally wet conditions in late 2006 and early 2007 off-set somewhat the poor 2007 long rains. Moreover, the 2007 long rains have replenished pasture and water, allowing the recovery process to continue, particularly in areas where rains were fair. However, to strengthen the recovery process, adequate interventions to rebuild livelihoods and efforts to mitigate the increasing conflicts affecting pastoral districts need to be implemented. Without recovery interventions, the pastoral and marginal agricultural livelihoods will remain highly vulnerable to shocks such as the current conflict in pastoral areas, flooding around Lake Victoria and along the coast and drought conditions in the southeast and outside the coastal strip.