Pastoralists in the inland areas are facing a critical situation after a prolonged dry season, and livestock body conditions are deteriorating due to lack of pasture and browse. As a consequence, milk production has declined considerably and the volume of animal sales has been low. Pastoralists in the Northwest and Southeast border sub zones are currently intensifying other income generating activities to cope (sales of charcoal, firewood, salt, etc.) with the decline in animal production and sales. The onset and performance (in terms of intensity and spatial distribution) of the March to May rains (Sougoum/Diraa) are the main factors that will determine the pastoral food security in these areas. Intensive, early livestock migration from coastal areas to the Sougoum/Diraa grazing areas is expected immediately after the onset of the seasonal rains. This will create a high concentration of livestock in these grazing areas, increasing the competition for the limited natural resources available. Reports indicate that livestock near the new livestock export facility are experiencing a high incidence of tick borne diseases.

The continuous increase in the cost of the expenditure basket for urban poor households limits their purchasing power, and the full basket is currently beyond their reach. Poor urban households are now likely to face a critical choice between reducing their dietary intake and reducing expenditure on non-food items like water, schools and medicine. An urban food security and livelihood crisis is looming. Malnutrition rates among children and women may deteriorate further, and response actions like extending school feeding programs in poor, urban areas, are urgently needed.

Seasonal timeline

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Current hazard summary   •                 High staple food prices are reducing the purchasing power of poor urban and rural households. As a result, dietary intake will be reduced leading to further deterioration of child malnutrition rates.   •                 The prevalence of water borne diseases is likely to increase soon in the inland areas that depend mainly on water catchments as a source of water.

Food security summary

Except for some pockets in the North of Mabla and Goda mountains, the country received below normal cumulative rainfall during the last season, and pastoral households in the Northwest and Southeast border sub-zones were the most seriously affected. Meanwhile, staple food prices in rural and urban markets have been steadily rising, and some households have been reducing their daily caloric intake, putting their children at great risk of malnutrition. The forecast for the current rainy season is mixed, with equal chances of rains being below normal, normal and above normal. In the worst case scenario, staple food prices will continue to rise and the March-May rains will be poor, raising the number of pastoralists requiring food aid to around 50,000 to 70,000 people, most of them in inland areas of the Northwest and Southeast border sub-zones.

Favorable October – December rains re-established pasture and browse and replenished water catchments in most coastal areas. As a result, livestock who migrated to the coastal grazing areas benefited from the abundant natural resources (water, browse and pasture) during the season. Income and food from the sale and consumption of livestock products have improved for pastoralists in the Central and Southeast roadside pastoral zones. The reduction in income and food sources from remittances due to the high cost of the urban expenditure basket has been compensated by the favorable terms of livestock trade and the intensification of other income generating activities like firewood collection and charcoal production. As kerosene prices rose in urban areas, demand for these rural sources of fuel also increased.

However, pastoralists in the more remote parts of Dikhil, Tadjourah and Obock districts (Northwest pastoral zone) are in a precarious situation and are facing significant food deficits. The prolonged dry period since October 2006 led to a decline in income and food derived from livestock and livestock production. Signs of pastoralists’ distress are clear: they have started shaking acacia trees to feed their animals on the falling leaves. WFP food distributions are currently covering the household food deficits.

The forecast for the current Sougoum/Diraa (March-May) rainy season indicates an equal probability that rainfall totals will be below normal, normal or above normal. The March to May rains constitutes an important rainfall season over Djibouti, particularly in the inland areas. Its timely onset is of paramount importance to the recovery of livestock who suffered a prolonged dry period. Any delay in the onset of rains or also below normal levels of seasonal rains will have a negative impact on the livelihood and food security of inland pastoralists.

As Heys/Dada rains ended early and total accumulations were below normal, an early migration of livestock is expected from coastal grazing areas to inland Sougoum/Diraa grazing zones. The season rains usually reach their peak in April, and low volumes of rainfall for the month would be indicative of a poor Sougoum/Diraa season.

The full expenditure basket of poor households is currently outside their reach, and the variety and amount of dietary consumption has declined. A similar situation happened in July and August of last year, when international oil prices skyrocketed. But a continuous increase as has been experienced for the last four months is extremely rare. As a, result, daily caloric intake will continue to decline, and the children will become more prone to malnutrition. As the incomes of urban households and individuals become more constrained, remittances to rural areas will shrink, putting rural households dependent on these remittances at particular risk.

The food price increases and market speculations like hoarding became a daily practice for the limited wholesale traders which monopolize the Djibouti market. In response, the government has recently created a national committee to monitor the stock and prices of principal staple commodities.

A combination of poor March to May rains and rising staple food prices will push pastoralists to a critical level of food insecurity. The number of pastoralists requiring food aid will increase starting June from an estimated 47,500 to around 50,000 to 70,000 people, living mostly in inland areas of the Northwest and Southeast border sub-zones.

Natural resource availability: water, pasture and browse

Figure 1. Cumulative rainfall (mm)for Heys/Dada season (October 2006 to February 2007)   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS

Figure 2. Rainfall performance as percentage of average (1996-2003) for Heys/Dada season (October 2006 to February 2007)   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: USGS

Heys/dada rains are light coastal showers associated with moist offshore winds originating in the Arabian Sea, typically falling from September-February (see timeline). These showers are heaviest in the mountains of Mabla and Goda north of Tadjourah and in the more elevated areas of Arta and Ali Sabieh districts.

The rains began well, with good rains falling in November and December, but a dry spell in January and February – normally the rains’ peak – reduced season’s overall performance significantly (see figure 1).

Satellite imagery suggests that the spatial distribution and intensity of rains during this season were poor compared to the short term mean (see figure 2). Except for some pockets in the North of Mabla and Goda mountains, the country received below normal cumulative rainfall during the season. Households in the Northwest and Southeast border sub-zones are the most seriously affected. Cumulative rainfall along the coastal belt was around 40mm to 160mm. However some pockets in the northern provinces received significant rains of around 160mm to 320mm.

Reports indicate that there is a shortage of water supplies for both human and livestock in most inland areas. Most water catchments are nearly dry, and the quality of water in the basins is very bad, putting those who consume it at greater risk of contracting water borne diseases.

The timing of the onset and the performance of the current season is very important as the inland areas has a prolonged dry period of around five months (October-February) and the coastal areas are now in their second month without rains. The consensus statement of the nineteenth climate outlook forum for the Greater Horn of Africa (held in Nairobi, Kenya from March 5-7, 2007), indicates that most parts of Djibouti have equal chances of receiving below normal, normal and above normal rains. The pastoralists in the inland areas are already in a serious situation due to lack of water and pasture. In the worst case scenario (below normal rains), they will face a food security emergency. Close monitoring on the onset of the March-May Diraa/Season is necessary.

Urban food and livelihood security

Key indicators at a glance Expenditure indicators Current situation Cost of staple foods Increasing Cost of other foods Increasing Cost of non-food items Decreasing Income indicators Current situation Payment of government salaries/pensions Regular Cargo loaded/unloaded at Djibouti Port Not known   Key Indicators Explained In the city, most necessities are purchased, and thus the key indicators to monitor are those linked to expenditure and to income. The main sources of income for poor households are casual labor, petty trade, low-wage formal employment and pensions. FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: DISED/FEWS NET Notes: Figure 3 shows trends in the cost of staple foods, other foods and non-food items per FD per household per month

The price of the monitored urban poor expenditure basket has risen 4 percent since December 2006, and the full basket is currently above the poor household’s reach. The increase is due mainly to the rise in staple food prices, which rose 8 percent in February alone, a cumulative increase of 10 percent since November 2006. Wheat Flour and cooking oil are the main commodities showed significant increase in February (25 and 3 percent respectively). Djibouti imports most of its staple foods, and a combination of higher prices in international markets and local market speculations by whole sale traders are the main reason for these higher prices. The price of bread, a staple in urban poor areas has increased by 25 percent in the last month. Bakers are now producing bread that weighs less per unit than the 150 gram minimum regulated by the government. As a result the dietary consumption of the poor population, for who bread is the main staple has declined.

Milk powder, which is the main source of energy for recently weaned children, has increased by 1 percent, since February, which could affect the dietary intake of children living below poverty line (less a dollar per day). The tea and salt prices have increased by 4 and 15 percent, respectively.

The price of Kerosene has decreased by 19 percent since last month, in line with international oil prices. This decrease will probably halt the excessive utilization of firewood and charcoal for cooking purposes. While the environmental damage will be reduced, so will the income of poor rural households in the Central and Southeast border pastoral livelihood zones who depend on firewood and charcoal production as their main sources of income.

Meat prices have stabilized at higher levels due to high demand in the export market. Due to the recent outbreak of Rift Valley Fever in neighboring countries, strict inspection measures have been imposed to animals being slaughtered, in order to safeguard the food safety and the hygiene of meat products.

The current cost of the total monitored expenditure basket will reduce the purchasing power of poor households in urban areas. There is a high tendency that malnutrition rates might further deteriorate. Pregnant women and children will be the most affected.

Mosquitoes are breeding in the open sewages and ditch latrines in most suburbs of the city (Balbala and PK 12), causing sleeplessness, fatigue and some anorexia among the labor force, affecting their productivity. Measures to reduce rates of propagation are underway (like fumigation in some quarters of the city and distribution of mosquitoes nets impregnated with insecticides). However, the interval between spraying is long and insects are likely to develop resistance if regular intervals with appropriate doses are not maintained. Continuous spraying at regular intervals is needed to reduce insect population. No malaria cases have been reported so far.

Markets

Figure 4. Prices for sheep and goats in Balbala market FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: DISED

Terms of trade in live animals (sheep and goats) currently favor pastoralists. In February, goat prices were the highest they’d been in a year, and sheep were about 7 percent higher than in February 2006 (see figure 4). In February, sheep and goats fetched around 2 and 1.6 bags (50 Kg) of rice, respectively.

The relatively high prices observed during the last three months are due to the high demand in export markets. The recent outbreak of Rift valley Fever, a contagious disease initially transmitted by mosquitoes that can also affect humans through consumption of meat from infected sheep, goats and cattle, has encouraged traders from neighboring countries to use the quarantine and livestock certification center in the Damerjoog area of Djibouti. Large flocks of animals are transiting at the facility for inspection purposes, creating business and casual labor opportunities at the site and at the port. Households are benefiting from these activities through petty trade (opening small restaurants, selling hay, etc.) and casual labor (eg. loading and unloading, veterinary services assistance and care practices). However, this massive movement of animals from different parts of the region will encourage the spread of animal diseases. Reports indicate that tick borne diseases are increasing in areas adjacent to the facility, particularly in the southeast border roadside sub-zone.