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Stable food prices support food access

28 Nov 2006 17:38:00 GMT
Source: FEWS NET

Background

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FEWS NET Monthly Report for Tanzania, United Republic of covering the period Sep 2006 to Oct 2006.

TANZANIA
Food Security Update
October 2006

ALERT STATUS:
NO ALERT
WATCH
WARNING
EMERGENCY

Summary and Implications

Food security conditions have remained favorable during September and October 2006, following the surplus production of the 2005/06 season that increased food stocks and market supplies, subsequently stabilizing wholesale prices on most rural and urban markets between July and September. Stable food prices have provided market dependent consumers with good access and ensured their food security. The temporary ban on private sector maize exports is insulating the Tanzanian maize market from more competitive prices in neighboring countries, helping to keep prices relatively low. Despite the export ban, informal cross border trade continued to be active up to September. During the month of September, Tanzania exported 20,708 MT of food grains to Kenya and other East African countries. From October, the volume of informal cross border trade decreased as the availability of grains in Kenya increased after the start of maize harvest in the Rift valley area, the grain basket of Kenya.

In preparation for the coming season, the inputs covered by the government's subsidized input support system are being delivered to various districts. These inputs are mainly expected to be used during the masika season in bimodal areas and the msimu season in the unimodal areas. The government's subsidized input initiative is expected to increase crop yields this season, as long as the rains are adequate during the 2006/07 season.

Widespread felling of trees for firewood and timber has reduced the density of strong windbreak trees that protect the banana trees, and the damage from the recent storms has been particularly heavy. The destruction of banana trees has brought additional hardship to banana farmers in Kagera who endured drought last season and are fighting Banana Bacterial Wilt. Farmers and the Government of Tanzania are advised to restore the windbreaks.

Seasonal Calendar

Timeline of critical events

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Tanzania rainfall regimes

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Current hazard summary

The availability of pasture and water will continue to decline in the central and northeastern pastoral areas until rains have resumed.
Power shortages caused by the drought in central Tanzania have reduced the demand for casual labor in sectors that depend on electricity.
In the Kagera Region, Banana Bacterial Wilt (BBW) and cassava mosaic disease threaten crop production. Strong winds accompanying heavy storms have felled banana trees in Kagera.

Food availability and access

Last season's surplus production has improved food availability and stabilized prices in markets across the country. As of October 19, the government's Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) had purchased enough maize and sorghum from around the country produced during 2005/06 to replenish the government's domestic stocks and ensure food security. Since August, 82,669 MT of maize had been purchased, leaving the SGR's stock balance of maize at 85,460 MT as of October 19. During the same period, 1,968 MT of sorghum was purchased, with sorghum stocks at 2,005 MT as of October 19. The government encouraged sorghum production in areas more ecologically suited to sorghum than maize. Farmers were initially hesitant to produce sorghum because the demand for the crop was perceived to be too limited, but the SGR's demand for sorghum is likely to encourage sorghum production.

Market situation

In many markets, maize prices have been falling since July. The October 2006 maize wholesale prices compared to June 2006 dropped by over 40 percent in Tanga, Morogoro, Dodoma, Arusha and Dar es Salaam. The decrease in maize prices in many markets has improved household access to maize, which is the main staple food and source of carbohydrates in Tanzania. However, in Lindi and other markets where prices were already relatively low, maize prices have in fact risen in recent weeks, as price differentials stimulate internal trade and the gap between high and low prices narrows (see Figure 1). The drop in maize prices in Dar es Salaam is mainly associated with the increased supply of maize from upcountry. The continuation of the export ban and the end of the SGR's purchase operation have also contributed to the recent decline in prices. Bean prices have significantly increased in almost all markets, with the highest prices noted in areas growing beans.

Figure 1: Maize prices on selected markets, January ? October 2006

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Source of data: Ministry of industries, trade and marketing

Potato prices have increased in all markets across the country as the marketing season for non-cereal crops comes to an end. Tanzania produced a surplus of non-cereals (50 percent over their domestic requirements), but because these foods are more perishable than other staples, they can not be carried over through to the next season.

Cross border grain trade between Tanzania and its neighbors remains active, despite the cereal export restriction imposed by the Government of Tanzania on the private sector. According to RATIN, Tanzania informally exported 8,973 MT of maize to Kenya in August and another 15,000 MT of maize in September. Exports to Kenya declined in October as the harvest in Kenya's Rift Valley was then underway. Beans and maize were also exported from Tanzania to neighboring countries during this time.

According to the Livestock Early warning Systems (LEWS), the analysis for Arusha livestock market indicates that both grades 1 and 2 mature cattle dominated the cattle market up to September, indicating that animal conditions were good. This is associated with the good forage conditions being experienced. Prices of mature grade 2 animals have risen steadily since the beginning of August. Given that forage conditions are expected to improve in northern Tanzania, it is also expected that prices will probably continue to increase.

Rainfall, seasonal preparations and pasture conditions

According to the Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA), the climatological outlook forecast for the 2006/07 season is favorable. This, together with the government initiative of a TZS 21 billion fertilizer input subsidy support, is likely to increase the chances of good production during 2006/07. Farmers are sourcing farm inputs in preparation for the onset of msimu rains that are expected in November. A total of 12,075 MT of improved varieties of maize seed has been imported into the country between May and August 2006 for use during 2006/07 agriculture season. This amount however is not enough; farmers will have to resort to seed saved from their previous harvest. The consistent use of locally produced uncertified seeds has been one of the causes of low crop yields, consequently affecting the amount of crop produced in the season.

Figure 2: RFE, October 2006 dekad 2 FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Figure 3: RFE, October dekad 2 vs. long-term average FULL-SIZE IMAGE
Source: USGS

During second dekad of October, most bimodal areas along the coast and in the northeastern highlands recorded rainfall amounts more than 20 mm, which is above normal. The highest rainfall amount was recorded at Pemba (178.8 mm), followed by Tanga (155.1 mm) and Handeni (100.5 mm). According to TMA, the remaining bimodal areas experienced a dry spell. The vuli season crop planting was delayed in Mara, Kagera, Shinyanga and Mwanza regions. Areas under the unimodal rainfall regime (western, central and southwestern highlands and southern regions) were seasonally dry, and most farmers were still engaged in land preparations and sourcing inputs, in anticipation of the rains starting in November.

The satellite imagery for the rainfall estimates (RFE for the dekad 2 of October, Figures 2 and 3) also gives a similar picture, showing that Tanga Region at the northern coast and Pemba Island received above normal rainfall, while the rest of the bimodal areas received below normal. Some field reports from Bukoba indicate that the heavy rains during the 3rd dekad of October were accompanied by strong winds that have destroyed banana trees.

The Normalized Difference Vegetative Index (NDVI) imagery for October dekad 2 (see Figure, below) shows that the vegetation conditions in the northern and central areas of Tanzania are below normal compared to the long term average conditions. Observations show that although the animal conditions are still normal, pastures have deteriorated in Monduli, Ngorongoro, peri-urban parts of Arusha and Manyara region, which are the main bimodal pastoralist areas of the north and northeast. The recovery for pastures in the central areas awaits the start of msimu rains.

A comparison of vegetation index between the 2nd dekad of October with the previous dekad, the short term average and long term average indicates that the vegetation is very light to light in Morogoro, parts of Tanga, the coast and parts of Mtwara. The onset of the vuli rains in bimodal areas is expected to boost pasture and water availability for livestock. In unimodal southern Tanzania, pasture conditions will deteriorate as dry conditions persist.

Figure 4: NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) dekad 2, October 2006

NDVI image October dekad 2

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NDVI image October dekad 2
Vs previous dekad FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Vs short-term average FULL-SIZE IMAGE	Vs long-term average FULL-SIZE IMAGE

FULL-SIZE IMAGE

Source: NASA, USGS. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) provides a measure of the amount and vigor of vegetation at the land surface. The magnitude of NDVI is related to the level of photosynthetic activity in the observed vegetation. In general, higher values of NDVI indicate greater vigor and amounts of vegetation. The normalized difference vegetation Index (NDVI) is monitored during the dry season, as an indicator of the pasture availability.

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Last updated:Tue Nov 28 22:40:20 2006