As food security improves, recovery interventions are critical

Figure 1: Current estimated food security conditions   FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: ALRMP/KFSSG/Assessment Team

Despite late and below-normal rains during the April to June long-rains season, particularly in eastern pastoral areas, food security indicators are improving in pastoral and coastal marginal agricultural areas (Figure 1). Exceptionally wet conditions in late 2006 and early 2007 off-set the poor 2007 long rains. Moreover, the 2007 long rains have sufficiently replenished pasture and water to allow the recovery process to continue in most areas – as long as adequate interventions to rebuild livelihoods and efforts to mitigate the increasing conflicts affecting pastoral districts are implemented. Without recovery interventions, the pastoral and marginal agricultural livelihoods will remain highly vulnerable to shocks such as the current conflict in pastoral areas, flooding around Lake Victoria and on the coast and drought conditions in the southeast and outside the coastal strip.

Conflict in pastoral areas in April has continued through May, particularly in Turkana, Garissa, Isiolo and Tana River districts. Conflicts have impeded access to pastures and markets, enabled cattle theft and contributed to increasing child malnutrition rates in the epicenters of conflict. More than 30 pastoralists have lost their lives.

The flooding around Lake Victoria has been controlled, and most displaced households have returned home. However, severe flooding that started in late May in coastal Tana River, Lamu, Malindi, Kilifi and Mombasa districts has affected 23,000 people, displacing households, causing crop loss, impeding access to physical facilities and increasing household vulnerability to water and vector-borne diseases, especially in Lamu and Tana River districts. While the Kenya Red Cross has distributed non-food items to a significant proportion of the affected households as well as 2,000 MT of GoK food, the one-time response is unlikely to meet emerging food and non-food needs.

National food supply remains favorable, and a good first long-rains harvest is expected in July in key growing areas in the west and Rift Valley. However, the late start and erratic performance of the long rains in the drought-prone southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural lowlands threaten local production. Although the long-rains season is the minor season in these areas, it contributes an estimated 30 percent to local annual crop output, regenerates vegetation and recharges water sources. The season also forms a crucial bridge to the more important October to December short-rains season. A poor long-rains season would accentuate chronic food insecurity in the lowlands, despite the good 2006 short-rains season.

In many areas, relief food is still being provided to a substantial proportion of the pastoral population, which is to continue through September 2007. However, food aid alone is inadequate.  The implementation of livelihood-support interventions is critical, to not only mitigate the impacts of shocks and hazards but also enhance household capacity to withstand future shocks without being forced into destitution.