Figure 1. Estimated current food security conditions (July to September 2007) FULL-SIZE IMAGE Graphics by FEWS NET, September, 2007

• Continued restrictions on trade and movement in Somali Region are worsening food security among already extremely food insecure pastoral and agro pastoral populations in Warder Zone, Korahe Zone and parts of Fik, Degehabur and Gode Zones (Figure 1). These restrictions, which began in mid-June, have prevented livestock trade and impeded the movement of food and other commercial goods to rural areas. To date, food aid dispatches to and distributions in the region have been insufficient to meet the needs of affected populations.

• Already high levels of food insecurity in the lowlands of Oromiya region will deteriorate further in the second half of 2007, if sufficient food aid is not provided, especially through the remainder of the current hunger period (June to September). This deterioration is due to poor 2006 Meher rains, poor 2007 Belg rains and poor prospects for the 2007 Meher season.

Seasonal calendar and critical events timeline

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Food security summary

Despite an overall improvement in food security in Ethiopia following very good 2006 Meher (June to September main rainy season) production in much of the country, more than 8.6 million people required humanitarian assistance in the first half of 2007. Of these, 7.3 million people were assisted through the Government of Ethiopia’s (GoE) Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), a multi-year assistance program for chronically food insecure populations. The remaining 1.3 million people were to be targeted through emergency humanitarian assistance, following case-by-case assessments of emergency resource requests. Of the 1.3 million people planning figure for emergency humanitarian assistance, 71 percent were from Somali Region, which received no emergency assistance until July.

Figure 2. Populations likely to need emergency food assistance from August to December 2007 and food requirements in non-PSNP woredas FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: 2007 Belg Pre-harvest and Pastoral Area assessment and Update on Emergency Food requirement from August to December August 2007

The number of people requiring assistance was revised in August, based on the findings of the June Belg/Gu assessment. The assessment indicated that 263,700 people required 13,980 MT of food (Figure 2). Given these results, the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Agency (DPPA) did not release a Belg/Gu appeal this year, as the amount of emergency food required can be covered through existing DPPA stocks.

Similar to the Meher emergency beneficiary figures, Belg emergency assessment figures will be used for contingency planning purposes only. Actual emergency needs will be established only after a case-by-case verification of needs, based on requests from regional governments. The DPPA’s revised policy allows for one month’s food ration to be distributed to areas requesting emergency assistance, pending these verification assessments. Nevertheless, delays in the distribution of emergency food aid are anticipated. As a result, all populations in need in requesting zones may undertake negative coping strategies that result in asset depletion.

According to the Belg report, only woredas that are not covered by the PSNP will be assisted through the emergency program. In PSNP woredas where Belg assessment missions indentified additional needs, it is expected that the 20 percent contingency will be used to cover the increased needs. DPPA verification assessments will also be required in woredas intending to use the PSNP’s 20 percent contingency.

Food security in Somali Region

Figure 3. Total incomes and income sources in the Howd pastoral food economy zone FULL-SIZE IMAGE Note: The Howd food economy zone covers the whole of Warder zone and eastern half of Korahe zone Source: SC UK Food Economy Profiles

The DPPA’s Belg/Gu pre-harvest and pastoral assessment results and update on emergency food requirements from August to December does not include reporting for Somali Region, as insecurity in this area delayed the Gu assessment there. A separate report is expected to be released for Somali Region once the assessment results for the whole region become available.

While official assessment results have not yet been released, food security in Warder and Korahe and parts of Fik, Gode and Degehabur zones continues to be worrying, due to restrictions on the movement of people and goods in these areas. These restrictions, including limitations on the movement of cereals and imported food items into these areas and prohibitions on the movement of livestock out of these areas, have inhibited pastoralists’ and agro pastoralists’ access to markets to sell livestock and buy food since mid-June.

Some commercial food began flowing into restricted areas via military convoy beginning in the second week of August, but the amounts of food allowed in were reported to be insufficient to meet all of the areas’ needs. Relief food aid dispatches by the DPPA have also been carried out in these zones, though most actual distributions have not yet taken place. While the movement of some commercial and relief supplies into these areas is expected to alleviate food shortages slightly, the amount of food sent through both commercial and humanitarian channels is much lower than the needs of the zones.

Even if commercial food was allowed into these areas with no restriction, continued prohibitions on the sale of livestock and livestock products, the major sources of income for pastoralists (Figure 3), will not allow these populations to earn sufficient income to buy cereals. Restrictions should, therefore, be lifted completely. Until they are, the amount of relief food provided should be increased to cover the needs of the pastoral and agro pastoral population living in these areas.

Food security in Oromiya region

Food security also remains worrying in the lowlands of eastern Oromiya region, including in the lowlands of East and West Hararghe, Bale, Borena and Guji zones. Populations in these areas are already facing food shortages due to the poor performance of this year’s Belg (March to May) rains. The late start and poor distribution of Meher rains, and the resultant poor progress of Meher season production, will likely compound this situation. Extreme coping strategies, including sale of draft oxen, rental of farmland and increased wild food consumption were reported in these areas by the Belg assessment mission. Immediate provisioning of the required assistance, either by increasing the PSNP beneficiary figures to include the 20 percent contingency, or by providing emergency resources in woredas that are not covered by the PSNP, is critical to prevent further deterioration of food security in these areas.

Seasonal progress

Figure 4. Estimated rainfall compared to the long-term
August 1-10	August 10 - 20	August 20-30	Diff from Avg
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Source: NOAA

Meher season production, which contributes between 90 and 95 percent of the nation’s total crop production, relies upon the major June to September Kiremt rains. These rains are also important for the regeneration of pasture and water in the northeastern pastoral zone. Overall performance of the Kiremt rains has been normal to above-normal in most areas, with timely onset and distribution (Figure 4). However, some heavy rainfall has caused flooding and water logging in the highlands. Enderta, Astbi Wemberta and Mereb Lehe woredas, in the highlands of Tigray region, for example, reported hailstorms and heavy rains that damaged crops. Heavy rains also caused water logging in the highland areas of Amhara region, and similar heavy rains are reported to have damaged crops in Alaba, Humbo, South Ari, North Ari and Erbore woredas of Southern Nations Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR).

East and West Belesa woredas and most of Wag Hamra zone of Amhara region, however, reported below-normal rains, which will likely reduce the yield of Meher crops in these areas. A significant reduction in yield in these areas that are covered by the PSNP could cause household level income and consumption deficits, and may lead to an increased need for PSNP resources (i.e. use of the 20 percent contingency fund). In Oromiya region, in the lowlands of East and West Hararghe and the lowlands of Guji, Bale and Borena zones, rains began one month late and continue to be below-average. These areas also received below-normal Belg (March to May) rains, leading to poor Belg production. Below-average rains were also reported along the Rift Valley in Oromiya region.

Pasture and water availability has significantly improved in the pastoral region of Afar, following good Karma (July to August) rains. Asaita, Dupti, Afambo and Kuneba woredas and most parts of Zone Three that were facing serious water and pasture shortages following the failure of the Ganna (March to May) rains have now received adequate rainfall for the regeneration of pasture and water points. Performance of crops in the agro pastoral areas of the region is also reported to be good. In northern Somali Region, the performance of the rains was reported to be below-average, though the rains were sufficient to improve availability of water and regenerate pasture. The performance of maize and sorghum, which are currently at flowering stage however, was reported to be poor due to insufficient moisture. If this situation persists, it may create a need for emergency food assistance in the first half of 2008, as implementation of the PSNP has not yet started in Somali Region.

Figure 5.  Retail prices of white maize in Addis Ababa: 13-month trend and 2002-2006 monthly average FULL-SIZE IMAGE Notes: (1) Prices are expressed in Ethiopian birr per quintal. (2) One quintal = 100 kg; 1 Ethiopian birr ≈ 12 US cents. Source: data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia.

Figure 6. Wholesale prices for select staple cereals in Addis Ababa FULL-SIZE IMAGE Source: data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia, and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE). Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia

Markets, trade and food access

Cereal prices in Addis Ababa market continued to rise in July, following their normal seasonal trend (Figures 5 and 6). Although prices normally rise during the June to September hunger period, price increases this season are much higher compared to the five-year average (Figure 5). For example, the retail price of white maize has increased by 31 percent compared to the five-year average. This increase is due to a range of possible factors, including: increasing prices for fuel, large grain purchases by cooperatives, unions and/or food aid providers and increased formal and informal cross-border trade.

Inflation rates also continue to rise. According to the Central Statistics Authority, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the average change in the price paid by consumers for a fixed basket of goods and services, has increased by 14.3 percent compared to the same time last year. The CPI has been steadily rising since the beginning of 2005, due, in part, to increases in the price of food, which rose 14.1 percent compared to same time last year. These increases make it increasingly difficult for poor farmers and the urban poor, who rely heavily on the market to purchase food to meet their consumption needs, to access adequate food.

The GoE has made various attempts to stabilize prices following these increases, including subsidizing the sale of wheat at a price of 45 Birr/25 kg. In April 2007, 25 kg of wheat sold for 66 Birr, 46 percent higher than the subsidized price. These subsidized sales were targeted to poor urban families, and was financed by: imposing a 10 percent tax on all imported ‘luxury’ items, imposing a grain export ban, increasing minimum interest rates of commercial banks from three to four percent and increasing the reserve requirements of commercial banks from five to ten percent to decrease the amount of money in circulation. Despite these efforts to stabilize prices, they continue to increase in the country.

The GoE also announced at the end of August that it will provide edible oil without a surtax and at 60 percent of its current price to Addis Ababa town and other regional towns in the country. In addition, the GoE has lowered the price of sugar, in an effort to further free up money for households to purchase other essential goods. Despite these efforts, the level of inflation continues to increase. Additional efforts to stabilize current high prices should be undertaken, in an effort to protect the food security of poor farmers and the urban poor, who rely heavily on the market to fulfill their consumption requirements. The interventions carried out, however, should be based on an informed understanding of the root causes for such high increases in prices.

Figure 7. Financial requirements for flood assistance in the most likely flooding scenario

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Source: Joint Flood Contingency Plan for 2007 Main Rainy Season, August 2007

Flood Update

In May 2007, the National Metrological Services Agency forecasted normal to above-normal Kiremt rains, with heavy flooding expected in different parts of the country. The DPPA released a flood alert in the beginning of July to increase preparedness and mitigate the possible impacts of flooding. A joint government and humanitarian partners’ flood contingency plan was prepared in August.

While the most likely flooding scenario will still have significant food security impacts, these impacts are anticipated to be less than those experienced during the 2006 Kiremt rains, thanks to some efforts to construct flood prevention structures and relocate people away from floodplains. During the 2006 Kiremt season, flooding affected nearly half a million people, displacing about 200,000 of them. The most likely scenario under the 2007 flooding contingency plan envisages 320,000 people being affected by flooding, including about 159,700 displacements. The overall assistance requirement under this scenario is expected to be USD 21,096,762 (Figure 7).

According to expectations, several floods have been reported since the start of the Kiremt rains. More than 5,000 people have been affected in various woredas of Amhara region, including: Qua’ra and Libo Kemkem in North and South Gondar zones, Kobo woreda in North Wollo zone and Antsokia Gemza woreda in North Shewa zone. In SNNPR, about 76,000 people have been affected in Hamer and Dasenach woredas of South Omo zone, Mareka and Tocha woredas of Dawro zone, Humbo woreda of Wolayita zone, Mirab Abaya and Bonke woredas of Gamo Gofa zone and Loka Abaya woreda of Sidama zone. Floods in Zone Three of Afar Region have also affected about 1,500 people in Sabure kebele of Awash Fentale woreda. Another 20,000 people are reportedly flood-affected in Lare and Itang Woredas in Zone One of Gambella Region.

In Tigray region, the heavy rains in Wukro town on August 1 raised the water level of the Genfel River and caused floods as the river changed its natural course. More than 100 houses were swamped and 237 people have been displaced. The floods in Alamata woreda washed away a one km sand bag dike and 100 MT of gabion walls. In addition, more than 200 houses were damaged. Atsbi Womberta, Worei Leke, Mereb Leke, Tatay Koraro, and Tselemti woredas in Tigray region also reported flooding.

According to the National Metrology Agency (NMA), heavy rains are expected to continue, especially in northern parts of the country, posing the risk of potential additional flooding. Rains are also forecast to continue beyond the normal cessation time (September), especially in the northern parts of the country.