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Good agricultural and pastoral production

12 Jan 2007 15:55:00 GMT
Source: FEWS NET

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• W. African food crisis

• Niger hunger

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FEWS NET Monthly Report for Niger covering the period Oct 2006 to Nov 2006.

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NIGER
Monthly Food Security Update
October 2006

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Summary of the food and nutritional situation

As the harvest season gets underway, food security and nutritional conditions are generally calm following a relatively easy lean period. Grain availability is good, thanks to large market supplies, the beginning of harvesting activities in nearly all parts of the country and ongoing social marketing programs and targeted distributions of free food aid. There is a visible improvement in household food economies thanks to income from sales of cash crops and poultry whose market value has shot up following heavy consumer demand associated with the month-long celebration of Ramadan.

The end of the 2006/07 growing season was heralded by dry conditions in the first dekad of October in most parts of the country and increasingly widespread harvests supporting food availability, even in the face of continued heavy demand associated with Ramadan. For the most part, the weather picture for the beginning of October indicated little to moderate rainfall, translating into ten-day rainfall totals of 66 mm in parts of the Tillabery, Dosso, Maradi, Tahoua, Zinder and Diffa regions. With the rains continuing into October, depending on the region, most crops whose growing cycle was way behind schedule were able to reach full maturity. Thus, crops planted as late as the end of July were able to mature and produce average yields.

Pending release of the findings from the Harvest Forecasting and Assessment Survey (EPER) using sampling techniques as the basis for estimating seasonal crop production, the joint CILSS/FAO/FEWS NET pre-harvest assessment mission is predicting a generally good grain harvest for the 2006/07 growing season.

Rainfall deficits, flooding and massive parasite infestations in parts of all farming regions of the country could mean localized crop production deficits. Rainfall rates throughout the 2006 agropastoral season helped produce good new vegetative growth, although there were pockets of drought.

There are good surface water and natural pasture resources thanks to favorable streamflow conditions. These resources are helping to create good animal feeding and watering conditions and conditions conducive to growing off-season crops. Livestock prices are rising as animals put on weight.

As far as nutrition indicators are concerned, there has been a sizeable drop in admissions to treatment facilities with the improvement in the household food security and the active involvement of women in ongoing farm work. Preparations are underway for a survey of household vulnerability to food insecurity. This joint SAP/INS/WFP/FAO/UNICEF/FEWS NET survey will help assess household food security and target relief efforts by the DNPGCA (the National Food Crisis Prevention and Management System) over the next few months. Moreover, a survey of the nutritional status of children between the ages of 6 and 59 months is currently in progress. This survey is being jointly conducted by the Government of Niger, the WFP, UNICEF and FEWS NET.

Timeline of important events and warning signs

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Food security, health and nutrition

Effects of the growing season on household food security

Household food security is generally satisfactory as harvests of millet and cash crops get underway, thanks to a combination of positive agricultural and economic conditions. In fact, increasingly widespread harvests are visibly improving grain availability and grain access, which is helping to strengthen household food security. The cumulative effects of two years of good harvests in most farming areas have solidified household food reserves and livestock capital.

Figure 1: Status of food-insecure areas

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Source: CILSS/FAO/FEWS NET mission, FAO, MRA (Ministry of Animal Resources)

Planting delays, rainfall deficits and massive parasite infestations in parts of the northern reaches of the farming regions could imply localized production deficits. Reports of good harvests in neighboring countries should help bolster trade and supplies to local markets. Grain transfers from surplus to deficit areas should help ensure urban as well as rural households a proximate grain supply.

An FAO-funded mission is reporting serious flood damage. Losses are estimated at 983 hectares or 996 flooded gardens in Tabelot (Agadez) and 2,658 hectares in Madaoua, Konni, Doutchi and Boboye. This is a major loss in terms of crop production (2,000 hectares of sorghum crops in Konni).

The cholera situation
As of September 30 of this year, 440 cases of cholera were reported to the SNIS (National Health Information System), producing 31 fatalities, up from the 239 cases and 23 fatalities and 14 cases and zero fatalities reported as of September 20 and August 20, respectively. Things have calmed down since the first week of October.

Nutritional situation
According to the status report presented by UNICEF, 13,000 new cases of malnutrition were reported during the fourth week of September, for a cumulative total of 287,722 admissions to treatment centers as of that date. However, there has been a sizeable drop in admissions, attributable mainly to the occupation of women with farm work at this time of year.

A comparative study of the nutritional situation shows a clear improvement in the treatment of cases of moderate malnutrition during this past year. In fact, the severe malnutrition rate, which was at 34 percent at the same time last year, is now down to 13 or 14 percent. However, as was the case last year, a jump in admissions rates for therapeutic feeding centers is expected as soon as all farming activities are completed (in late October - early November).

Status of the agropastoral season

Widespread harvests and good production prospects despite a late start to the season

Pending the release of official figures on the outcome of the 2006/07 growing season based on a quantitative assessment made as part of the Harvest Forecasting and Assessment Survey (EPER), the CILSS/FAO/FEWS NET mission drew up a preliminary qualitative assessment of grain production over the period from October 16 through October 20 that, despite a late start-of-season, points to a generally good harvest.

Yields from millet crops are expected to match or exceed last season's figures, production shortfalls in the southern reaches of the Tillabery (Tillabery, Say, Kollo) and Zinder (Mirriah, Tanout) regions notwithstanding. In any event, the negative effect of production shortfalls on the food situation of poor households could be tempered by the existence of proximate markets to reduce shipping costs with large, regular grain supplies and cheap prices for grain crops.

On the whole, the 2006 crop year is being rated as satisfactory thanks to the regular pattern of rainfall beginning in the third dekad of July and other environmental conditions conducive to good crop growth and development. Moreover, continuing useful rainfall late in September and into early October helped most late-planted crops reach full maturity (Figure 2).

Figure 2: Rainfall in the second dekad of October 2006

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Source: NASA

Figure 3: Cumulative rainfall (1st dekad of April ? 2nd dekad of October '06)

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Source: NASA

Characterized as a "wet" year, this year's rainy season produced season-long cumulative rainfall totals of from 200 to 800 mm in most of the country's farm belt. Thus, cumulative rainfall amounts are down from last year at 64 percent of the country's rainfall gauging stations, or 113 stations out of 177, but above the historical average for 1971-2000 at 73 percent of monitored gauging stations.

Streamflow conditions
Water levels in permanent and semi-permanent lakes and ponds are high enough in all parts of the country for the cultivation of off-season crops, brick-making for construction and repair work and the regular watering of livestock.

The level of the Niger River, which was unusually high in August and September, causing damage to upland rice crops in Dosso, Niamey and Tillabery, is starting to fall which, for the time being, is allaying concerns over the prospect of the flooding of crops and homes close to the river. These high water levels should be extremely good for growing off-season crops along the banks of the river.

Attacks by crop pests
Attacks by parasite predators, particularly by head miners late in the growing season, grasshoppers and flower-eating insects, could reduce crop yields in certain areas, necessitating a downward adjustment in production forecasts for this year's harvest. Local losses from crop pests could be anywhere from 5 to 50 percent, depending on the area.

Conditions in livestock-raising areas
According to the analysis by the Livestock Development Division of the Ministry of Animal Resources, the vegetation distribution map puts pasture production in livestock-raising areas at an estimated 800 kgDM/ha, which is a generally acceptable average production figure. However, there are pockets of poor pasture production in the northern Tahoua and Agadez regions and central Tanout department. Average forage production in crop-producing areas is estimated at 1000 kgDM/ha.

Livestock in grazing areas of Diffa, Maradi and Dosso, where forage production forecasts for this year are quite good, may stay put longer than usual before beginning their seasonal trek southwards and into neighboring countries, thanks to good forage and water availability in these areas. This could help fattened animals put on weight and, thus, bring in better prices for herders and their families.

The combination of limited new vegetative growth and poor streamflow conditions in livestock-raising areas throughout parts of Tillabery, Agadez, Tahoua and Zinder (Figure 4) could translate into mediocre forage production, causing livestock to head out to pasturelands in southern Niger and neighboring countries earlier than usual.

Figure 4: Vegetation index for the second dekad of October 2006

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Source: NOAA

A look at the current condition of watering holes shows seasonal lakes and ponds in the northern part of the country drying up, which is forcing animals to resort to the few existing permanent lakes and ponds in these areas and/or to underground water sources. Animals in transition and farming areas are still being watered at seasonal lakes and ponds whose levels are high enough to meet their needs.

Animal populations in farming areas are still concentrated in grazing enclaves and fallow fields. Animals in livestock-raising areas are slowly heading to farming areas. There are no reports of any major outbreaks of epizootic diseases affecting the animal population.

Market conditions

Grain markets: Prices for all grains are declining across the country, following the increased availability of millet

All major markets are being provisioned primarily by trader inventories, bolstered by the availability of fresh crops from recent harvests and imports from neighboring countries.

The average price of millet for the month of October was 14,000 CFAF per 100 kg sack, down 8 percent from last month. The Zinder (12 percent) and Maradi (12 percent) markets are reporting the largest price drops. A comparison with the same time last year shows prices are down 4 percent.

The downturn in prices on grain markets is attributable to a combination of good crop availability on local markets and slack demand, with households earmarking crops from recent harvests as family food reserves.

Figure 5: Comparison of average millet prices on major markets in Niger

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Source: SIMA (Agricultural Market Information System)

Livestock markets: Good water and forage availability is helping fattened animals put on weight and increasing the market value of livestock

On livestock markets, prices are steadily rising with fattened animals in good shape as a result of good pasture availability from both a quantitative and qualitative standpoint, with the average October price of a male goat up 4 percent from last month.

The combined effect of rising prices for small animals and falling grain prices is an improvement in terms of trade for male goats/millet from the standpoint of herders and their families that, on average, were up from 1 male goat per 100 kg of grain in September to 1 male goat per 118 kg of grain in October.

There has also been a remarkable improvement in poultry prices, which peaked in the second dekad of October in the face of the heavy demand generated by the celebration of Ramadan.

October prices for chicken ranged from 1,500 CFAF to 2,500 CFAF per bird on markets in Niamey throughout the fasting period associated with Ramadan. Prices for guinea fowl ranged from 2,500 to 3,500 francs per bird on Niamey markets during this same period.

Relief measures

The relief programs instituted during the lean period have more or less shut down with the end of targeted distributions of free food aid and the first round of widespread harvests in all parts of the country. Targeted distributions of free food aid by the WFP furnished 5,568 MT of food to some 350,000 recipients. As part of this same operation, the Government of Niger distributed some 5,321 MT of food to approximately 319,260 recipients.

The WFP furnished 2000 MT of provisions for the establishment and strengthening of grain banks under rural development programs in 2006. This year's food-for-work programs provided 419,000 program recipients with 5,131 MT of food. School meal programs in 497 schools reached a target group of 61,274 children.

Nutrition programs are another important component of WFP operations in Niger. This year, the WFP assisted 145,326 moderately malnourished children through the distribution of 1,969 MT of food. To ensure treatment effectiveness, it supplied a total of 4,957 MT of food in the form of protective food rations for some 676,455 children. Working with UNICEF, the WFP started up so-called ?blanket supplementary feeding? programs in areas reporting the highest malnutrition rates (Tahoua, Maradi and Zinder) reaching 354,889 children. This operation is targeted at children less than three years of age and is being conducted as a preventive measure to stop them from becoming severely malnourished. Lastly, the WFP distributed some 2,432 MT of food to 200,000 recipients this past month in the form of relief rations.

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Last updated:Fri Jan 12 20:57:32 2007