SCENARIOS-How might Yemen's toxic mix of conflict develop?
25 Nov 2009 08:33:30 GMT Source: Reuters
By Raissa Kasolowsky DUBAI, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Multiplying security and economic pressures are deepening instability in Yemen, raising fears for a strategically vital neighbourhood that includes oil superpower Saudi Arabia and one of the world's busiest shipping lanes. A Muslim Shi'ite revolt, southern secessionism and al Qaeda attacks have combined with water shortages, a humanitarian crisis, worsening poverty and falling oil income to stir powerful currents of turbulence in the poor Arabian country. Concern has also focused on the proximity of failed Horn of Africa state Somalia, which sits across the Gulf of Aden and hosts a pirate community that preys on international shipping in defiance of an international flotilla that seeks to stop it. Nearly 20,000 ships pass through the Gulf of Aden each year, heading to and from the Suez Canal. "Yemen faces unprecedented challenges... Any one of these challenges coming to a crisis point could overwhelm the Yemeni government," Christopher Boucek, an associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program, said in a note to journalists this week. If steps are not taken, "Yemen is at risk of becoming a failed state and a training ground for Islamist extremism." Following are scenarios on how Yemen's problems may develop: SECURITY CHALLENGE Yemen rose sharply up the regional security agenda in August when the government launched Operation Scorched Earth against Muslim Shi'ite rebels in the north, prompting the bloodiest episode in a conflict dating back to 2004. It rose higher still this month when rebels seized some Saudi territory, killing two border guards, and accused Riyadh of allowing Yemeni forces to use Saudi land as a launchpad for their attacks against them. Saudi Arabia responded by launching a military assault on the rebels -- known as the Houthis after the clan of their leader -- and enforced a 10 km (six mile) deep buffer zone inside Yemen to keep rebels away from its southwestern border. The violence has displaced more than 170,000 civilians, who face malnutrition and cholera, the United Nations says. The rebels, from the minority Zaidi sect of Shi'ism, say they face political, economic and religious discrimination from the Yemeni government, which they accuse of favouring the radicals among the Sunni majority who lean towards Saudi Arabia's puritanical Wahhabi Islam. CEASEFIRE, BUT WILL IT LAST? The Yemeni government and Houthis may come to a renewed ceasefire accord, but there are fears it would not last if Sanaa does not do more to address the rebels' political grievances. "I believe (the latest fighting) will end with another ceasefire, but previous experiences show we will then have a lull for a while and then it will start again," said Mustafa Alani, an analyst at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center. Qatar brokered a short-lived ceasefire in June 2007 and sponsored a peace deal signed in February 2008, but clashes soon broke out again. Saleh unilaterally declared the war over in July 2008, but full-scale fighting resumed a year later. REBELS' SUPPLY ROUTES ARE LIKELY TARGET Another possible outcome to the war could be military defeat for the rebels, but the difficult terrain in Yemen's mountainous north and the rebels' determination make this appear unlikely. Sanaa and Riyadh may instead aim to cut off the rebels' supply routes, especially for weapons, said Khalid al-Dakhil, a Saudi politics professor. "I think this is what will happen ... they need to isolate them politically and logistically, make it very costly for them to continue with their rebellion," he said. Conflict could spread further into Saudi Arabia, possibly to the region of Najran, which has a disgruntled Shi'ite population of the Ismaili sect who may sympathise with the rebels' cause. Saudi Arabia, which sees itself as the guardian of Sunni Islam, has a large Shi'ite population in the Eastern Province on the Gulf coast that says it faces discrimination. Yemen's conflict has also helped set off a media war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which the kingdom accuses of supplying rebels with arms. Iran denies the charge. "The exact Iranian involvement in Yemen is difficult to substantiate but the deployment of additional Saudi naval forces in the Gulf of Aden indicates there may be some truth to the claims," said Mark Thomas, deputy director of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, Qatar. OTHER PROBLEMS - THE SOUTH President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who took power in the former North Yemen in 1978 and has been president since a merger with the south in 1990, has no assured successor and faces a raft of economic, social and political challenges. Violence in the south broke out this year after an April 28 opposition rally to mark the 1994 civil war, in which Saleh's forces defeated the secessionist south, known before the 1990 unity deal as the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen. People in the south, home to most of Yemen's oil facilities, have long complained that northerners abused the unity agreement to grab their resources and discriminate against them. WATER, POVERTY, AL QAEDA Analysts say if Yemen tipped further into instability, or even state failure, this could widen opportunities for al Qaeda militants based in Yemen to launch attacks in a region that sends oil to petroleum-dependent economies around the world. Poverty and graft offer recruitment opportunities for al Qaeda's bold local wing, which in August sent a suicide bomber on a failed mission to kill Saudi Arabia's security chief. Yemen faces a water crisis, deemed among the world's worst, even as its 23 million population is set to double in 20 years. Water scarcity is forcing many poorer villagers to sell up and move to Yemen's cities, where few have the skills to thrive, even though they are expected to send money home to relatives. In the 2009 Failed State Index, a collaboration between research institute The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine, Yemen was 18th, ranking one ahead of North Korea.(Editing by William Maclean and Samia Nakhoul)((raissa.kasolowsky@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging: raissa.kasolowsky.reuters.com@reuters.net; +971 4 391 8301))
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