NEWSDESK
Six actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in February 2007, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.
In Uganda, peace talks were on the verge of collapse as the ceasefire between the government and LRA rebels expired and both sides threatened to resume violence if attacked. The security situation also worsened in Somalia as clashes between Islamist fighters and Transitional Federal Government/Ethiopian forces intensified.
Thailand saw a new wave of violence with a string of over 70 attacks hitting the 4 southern provinces and causing significant damage to economic infrastructure. And in Timor-Leste, violence surged with increased targeting of, and resentment towards, international peacekeepers. The situation also deteriorated in Pakistan and Yemen.
Two situations showed improvement in February. 6-Party talks in Beijing produced a breakthrough in negotiations on North Korea’s nuclear program with Pyongyang agreeing to shut its Yongbyon nuclear reactor within 60 days. In Burundi, the release of three rebel FNL leaders satisfied a final FNL condition to allow the peace process to move forward.
For March 2007, CrisisWatch identifies Nigeria and Timor-Leste as Conflict Risk Alerts, or situations at
particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict in the coming month
FEBRUARY 2007 TRENDS
Deteriorated
Situations
Pakistan, Somalia, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Uganda, Yemen
Improved Situations
Burundi, North Korea
Unchanged
Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia),
Colombia, Corsica (France), Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Guinea, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq,
Israel/Occupied Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Kuril Islands/Northern Territories (Russia/Japan), Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma,
Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Níger, Nigeria, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland (UK), Philippines, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Sri
Lanka, Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Tonga, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Zimbabwe
MARCH 2007 WATCHLIST
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
None
Conflict Risk Alerts
Nigeria, Timor-Leste
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.
Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch database.
To subscribe to CrisisWatch click here.
FEBRUARY 2007 TRENDS
Deteriorated
Situations
DR Congo, Pakistan, Somalia, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Uganda, Yemen
Improved Situations
Burundi, North Korea
Unchanged
Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burkina Faso/Niger, Burundi, Central African Republic,
Chad, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Corsica, Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Haiti, Indonesia, Iran,
Iraq, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Liberia, Macedonia, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Pakistan, Philippines,
Rwanda, Senegal, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Somalia, Somaliland (Somalia), Sudan, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Ukraine,
Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe
MARCH 2007 WATCHLIST
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
None
Conflict Risk Alerts
Nigeria, Timor-Leste
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.
Search current and all past editions of CrisisWatch by using the CrisisWatch database.
To subscribe to CrisisWatch click here.
