NEWSDESK
Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and one improved in July 2009, according to the new issue of the International Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin CrisisWatch, released today.
Violence in Nigeria's northern states again surged as the radical Islamist group Boko Haram launched a series of fierce attacks on security forces targets from 26 July, prompting a brutal crackdown by government troops and eliciting painful memories of November's deadly sectarian unrest. The attacks led to the death of at least 400 people, possibly many more, and left over 4,000 displaced before police apprehended group leader Yusuf Mohammed. He was shot dead hours later while trying to escape, according to the government. The attacks come as the government's amnesty and proposed DDR program for the South's restive Niger Delta looked increasingly fragile, as militant groups and regional governors threatened to withdraw their support over the government's failure to address economic grievances.
In Afghanistan, violence increased significantly ahead of the 20 August presidential elections. A major U.S.-led operation was launched in southern Helmand province to secure the area ahead of the polls, and at least 71 ISAF troops were killed during the month, the highest monthly toll since the start of the 2001 invasion. The Taliban responded with a wave of attacks, including an ambush on vice presidential candidate Mohammad Qasim Fahim, which he survived. There is a substantial risk that violence will continue to rise as the polling date draws closer, with the Taliban towards the end of the month announcing that they will attempt to disrupt the elections. CrisisWatch identifies a Conflict Risk Alert for Afghanistan for August.
In China, ethnic tensions erupted into bloody riots on 5 July in Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region as police confronted members of the Uighur population who took to the streets in the provincial capital Urumqi calling for government investigations into the deaths of several Uighur factory workers on 25 June. Chaos returned on 7 July when thousands of armed Han Chinese rioted through Urumqi.
The situation also deteriorated in Chechnya, where the 15 July abduction and murder of activist Natalia Estemirova, investigating rights violations by Chechen security forces, prompted international outrage and renewed focus on the prevalence of serious human rights abuses in Chechnya. The month also saw continued flare-ups in fighting with Islamist rebels, and incidents including a suicide bombing in Grozny on 26 July killing 6 people.
For July, CrisisWatch identifies Guinea-Bissau as an improved situation with the holding of timely and peaceful second-round presidential polls on 26 July, following the death of President Vieira in March this year. Whilst a step forward, the new president, Malam Bacai Sanha of the ruling PAIGC, faces massive reform challenges in addressing recent political unrest and widespread poverty.
The situation remains deadlocked in Honduras following June's civil-military coup, as talks between the de facto government and ousted President Manuel Zelaya broke down repeatedly during the month. However, hopes of a resolution were raised towards the end of the month, as both the military and the de facto President Robert Micheletti said they could be willing to accept the deal proposed by mediator Oscar Arias. The deal would see Zelaya return as president but with heavily curtailed powers.
Crisis Group has also produced a CrisisWatch Podcast, featuring a closer look at violence in Nigeria and an interview with our West Africa Project Director Richard Moncrieff.
July 2009 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Afghanistan, China (internal), Chechnya (Russia), Nigeria
Improved Situations
Guinea-Bissau
Unchanged Situations
Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Colombia,
Côte d’Ivoire, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Fiji, Gabon, Georgia, Guinea, Haiti, Honduras, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel/Occupied
Palestinian Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Morocco, Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan),
Nepal, Niger, North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), Northern Ireland, North Korea, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sri Lanka, Sudan,
Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe
Conflict Risk Alert
Afghanistan
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Honduras
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.
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