FACTBOX-What will Northern Ireland's election mean?
05 Mar 2007 15:45:32 GMT Source: Reuters
March 5 (Reuters) - Below are answers to some questions about the Northern Ireland Assembly election on Wednesday. WHY DOES IT MATTER? Electing a new Northern Ireland Assembly could allow for a local power-sharing government to be set up in Northern Ireland between Protestant unionists, who want to keep the province's union with Britain and Catholic Republicans, who want a united Ireland. Three decades of conflict that killed 3,600 people largely ended with the 1998 Good Friday Agreement but the province remains divided along sectarian lines and a lasting political settlement has proved elusive. The last attempt to share power collapsed five years ago, leaving Northern Ireland under direct rule from London. Britain and Ireland are keen to end political stalemate, but precedent does not give much reason for optimism -- the assembly elected in 2003 never sat for a whole day. WHO WILL DO BEST? Positions are not expected to change dramatically from the last election. The largest party is expected to be the pro-British Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of fundamentalist Protestant preacher Ian Paisley. Second place is likely to go to Sinn Fein, political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA) guerrilla group, which fought against British rule for 30 years. Both parties face traditional challengers from the middle ground within their communities, but more important could be the opposition they face from those opposed to any agreement. Paisley, who rejected a 1998 peace deal because of Sinn Fein's involvement, would need a strong mandate from the election if he were to justify sharing power with Sinn Fein to his supporters. But hardliners are unconvinced by IRA disarmament in 2005 and accuse Paisley of betrayal by leaving the door open to going into power with Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein faces opposition from some former supporters who object to its recent vote to support the Protestant-dominated police and courts in Northern Ireland. WHAT WOULD HAPPEN NEXT? The main parties could start discussion on forming the power-sharing government. Britain and Ireland are threatening to dissolve the assembly permanently if there is no agreement by March 26, although it is not impossible that time limit could be extended if it looked as though a deal might be reached eventually. The alternative proposed by London and Dublin of indefinite direct rule under a "partnership government" might not please either side. While nationalists such as Sinn Fein want to see an end to all British involvement in the province, unionists oppose the idea that Dublin would have a greater say in its running. British Prime Minister Tony Blair would like to be able to leave agreement on Northern Ireland as part of his legacy when he steps down later this year. It would also suit Irish premier Bertie Ahern who plans a general election in May or June. WHAT WOULD A POWER-SHARING GOVERNMENT BE LIKE? There is little doubt it would lead to much more sound and fury. But the involvement of the biggest parties, which were once on the political extremes, might give it a better chance than a government made up of moderates who had always sought to get along. The parties have also shown growing signs of pandering to concerns that go beyond the sectarian divide, such as strengthening the economy and improving local services.
