BAGHDAD, Sept 6 (Reuters) - U.S. President George W. Bush's top officials in Iraq will deliver an assessment of the situation in Iraq to Congress next week at a time when the government in Baghdad is facing internal revolts. More than a dozen ministers from Shi'ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's cabinet have quit. Following are some possible scenarios for Maliki and his government. CAN THE GOVERNMENT SURVIVE? U.S. intelligence agencies last month said the government would become more precarious over the next 6-12 months. They said criticism from factions in the ruling Shi'ite Alliance coalition, as well as Sunni Arab and Kurdish parties, added to the uncertainty over Maliki's administration. Some politicians increasingly talk about a no-confidence motion against the government, although nothing concrete has happened. In a sign of possible trouble ahead, an erstwhile partner, the bloc loyal to Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, will soon meet to decide its stance on a no-confidence vote, the bloc's head Nassar al-Rubaie told Reuters. With support from Kurdish parties, Maliki can still muster a small majority in parliament should the Sadr bloc join a no-confidence motion. WHAT ABOUT MALIKI? Opposition Democratic lawmakers in the United States have called for Maliki to be replaced, infuriating the prime minister. He told the McClatchy News Service in an interview late last month he had no intention of quitting nor did he expect to be forced out. On Sunday, Maliki said his government had stopped Iraq plunging into civil war. Several Iraqi lawmakers, despite being critical of Maliki, questioned whether removing him made sense. They said there were few alternatives. "The problem is who would replace Maliki. Finding an alternative is more difficult than sacking him," said Hussein al-Falluji, from the main Sunni Arab bloc, the Accordance Front. "Even the Americans ... don't have any alternatives," said Kurdish lawmaker Mahmoud Othman. WHO COULD REPLACE MALIKI? So who could it be? Three names have circulated for months: former interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, current Vice President Adel Abdul-Mahdi as well as former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari. Allawi, a secular Shi'ite, is making the most apparent public bid, seeking to drum up support in Iraq and the United States. He told CNN last month that under the right circumstances he would be ready to be prime minister. Abdul-Mahdi is a senior leader in the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), one of Iraq's biggest Shi'ite parties and a key member of the ruling alliance. He is seen as a popular choice among some lawmakers. Speaking to Reuters last month in Dubai, Abdul-Mahdi said he had no ambitions beyond the vice-presidency. The other alternative is Jaafari, who like Maliki, comes from the Shi'ite Islamist Dawa party. But Jaafari, whose first term was characterised by inaction, is an unpopular choice for many, including Washington. WOULD THE U.S. BACK AN ALTERNATIVE? Washington still sees Maliki as the best man for the job, one senior Western diplomat in Baghdad said last month. The Bush administration did not believe "there is somebody who can do it better", the diplomat said. "Now is not the time for a change in government," he said. In 2006, it took Maliki's government more than four months to form. WHAT IF THE GOVERNMENT COLLAPSED? Asked if this would plunge Iraq deeper into crisis, Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih, a Kurd, told Reuters last month: "In the absence of a credible alternative, a better alternative, it would be problematic, chaotic. In the context of Iraq, when you talk about problems, you are talking serious problems." Lawmaker Othman added: "There would be chaos like that which accompanied the fall of Saddam, especially if there were no constitutional alternatives (to Maliki)."
