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Hezbollah gives Israel more clues in new strategy
05 Nov 2007 22:25:53 GMT
Source: Reuters
(Releads with Hezbollah's confirmation of maneuvres)

By Nadim Ladki

BEIRUT, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Lebanon's Hezbollah has conducted maneuvres in south Lebanon, the group's deputy chief said on Monday, a move security and political sources said aimed to deter Israel from invading as it did during their 2006 war.

Two pro-Hezbollah newspapers had reported that the Shi'ite Muslim group, which fought a 34-day war with Israel last year, staged one of its biggest maneuvres over the weekend under the direct supervision of its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah.

Hezbollah's deputy chief Sheikh Naim Kassem confirmed that a large-scale maneuvre had taken place in response to what he said was a major Israeli maneuvre.

"Hezbollah must be ready and prepared so that it won't be taken by surprise," Kassem said on a Lebanese television channel, adding there was no armed presence in the exercises.

The dailies had said the exercises involved thousands of unarmed guerrillas in the area of operations of U.N. peacekeepers near the border with Israel but the Lebanese government said they were merely "simulations on paper".

The U.N. force said it shared the government's view.

Security sources confirmed the maneuvres, albeit not on the scale reported by the newspapers. They said the exercises showed Hezbollah had relaxed a long-held policy of military secrecy, letting Israel know more about its capabilities in a new deterrence strategy.

Hours after news of the maneuvres, Israeli warplanes dropped flares over south Lebanon's coast, illuminating the night sky.

A political source close to the group, which is backed by Syria and Iran, said regardless of how serious the maneuvres actually were, their leak to the media was part of a change of strategy by Hezbollah.

"During its review of last year's war, its reasons and conduct, Hezbollah reached the conclusion that it was a mistake to build up its capabilities in total secrecy," said the source, who requested to remain anonymous.

"The Israelis didn't know the strength of Hezbollah and rushed to war, making the major miscalculation that they could crush the group in a few days," he said.

"DETERRENT"

Israeli forces attacked in 2006 after the capture of two soldiers in a cross-border raid. Nasrallah said shortly after the war that he would not have ordered the attack had he known the Israeli retaliation would be so fierce.

The conflict claimed the lives of some 1,200 people in Lebanon, mostly civilians, and 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.

The source noted Nasrallah had made several uncharacteristic statements about his group's military strength since the war, from saying Hezbollah has more than 30,000 rockets, some capable of hitting any part of Israel, to pledging a "great surprise" that would alter the balance of any future conflict.

"All this talk is aimed at deterring Israel from attacking Lebanon again. Hezbollah are not looking for a fight by sending these messages, they want to avoid one," the source said.

The maneuvres did not appear to have any link to Lebanon's protracted political crisis.

Al Akhbar daily said all Hezbollah's military, security and logistics units took part in the maneuvres from Friday to Sunday south of the Litani River, an area patrolled by some 11,500 UNIFIL peacekeepers and 15,000 Lebanese troops.

As Safir newspaper said the move came after Israeli maneuvres near the northern border with Lebanon and intensified Israeli flights over the south and Beirut.

Nasrallah congratulated those who took part, Al Akhbar said.

"I hope that the enemy and the friend will realise that the resistance is totally ready to confront all kinds of Israeli threats," he was quoted as saying.

Prime Minister Fouad Siniora played down the reports, saying the exercises took place on paper only, saying "What happened is nothing but an internal simulation exercise that was never translated on the ground."

UNIFIL'S Deputy Spokeswoman, Yasmina Bouziane, said "The position of the Lebanese authorities is corroborated by reports of UNIFIL units on the ground."

Both reactions came before Kassem confirmed the maneuvres.

(Editing by Matthew Tostevin)


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Last updated:Mon Nov 5 22:25:02 2007