By Axel Bugge LISBON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The Portuguese vote on Sunday in a referendum on legalising abortion which pits liberals seeking a more open society against Roman Catholics determined to safeguard their traditional values. Polls show the numbers favouring legalisation exceed those wanting to keep the ban. But many Portuguese may not vote at all and the outcome becomes non-binding if less than 50 percent of the electorate go to the polls. Divisions on the issue run deep, often between the young and old and between the rural population and people from major cities like Lisbon and Porto in one of western Europe's poorest countries. "The numbers will be very close, but I think the yes will win," said Rui Oliveira Costa, a pollster for Eurosondagem. "Abstentions will be high, between 45 and 55 percent." In Europe, Portugal is one of the few countries -- along with Ireland and Poland -- that has strict limits on abortion. Abortion is allowed only in rare cases such as rape, a deformed foetus or if the woman's health is at risk. Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates is campaigning to change the law, warning that abstaining could maintain the "the national shame of clandestine abortions." Campaigners in favour of changing the law have focused overwhelmingly on the estimated 23,000 clandestine abortions that take place each year, often in conditions that puts women's lives at risk. Other women get around the ban by crossing the border into Spain where abortions have been allowed since 1987. The pro-life 'no' side has warned that a vote in favour will increase the number of abortions, that state health costs will rise and that there will be pressure to ease other laws. "A dangerous road will open if there are abortions in Portugal," said Antonio Pinheiro, a campaigner from the Together for Life movement. The Catholic Church has warned of moral decay if abortions are allowed, possibly opening the way to other social changes such as permitting gay marriages. Roman Catholics make up 90 percent of the population in Portugal. Portugal last held a referendum on the issue in 1998 when only 32 percent of the electorate turned out, making the result invalid. The Socialist prime minister at the time, Antonio Guterres, was a practicing Catholic and campaigned against. The Socialists' proposal is to allow abortions in the first 10 weeks of pregnancy -- something which would still leave Portugal with a relatively conservative law. European countries that permit abortions allow them to take place much later into pregnancy.
