May 7 (Reuters) - Iraq's parliament has begun debating a bill on provincial elections that will ban any party from competing in the Oct. 1 polls if they have a militia. If the law passes, as is expected, it could spark a major showdown with Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose movement should do well in the elections but who has refused to disarm his Mehdi Army militia despite an order from Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to do so. Following are answers to questions about the looming confrontation between Sadr and Maliki: WHAT IS THE LATEST? The provincial elections law was presented to parliament on Tuesday. It should be debated in the next 1-2 weeks. Its presentation comes against a backdrop of daily clashes between security forces and fighters claiming loyalty to Sadr in the cleric's Baghdad stronghold of Sadr City. The southern city of Basra, where Maliki initially launched a crackdown on militias in late March, has been calm for the past month. WHAT DOES MALIKI WANT? Maliki, himself a Shi'ite, says the crackdown is to disarm militias, but Sadr's followers sees it as an attempt to sideline the cleric's mass movement before the elections. The prime minister caught his American backers off-guard with his offensive in Basra, but after early military setbacks, it has gone well. Political leaders across Iraq's sectarian and ethnic divide -- apart from the Sadrists, who control 10 percent of seats in parliament -- have backed Maliki's campaign. Government officials call it unprecedented support for Maliki. "The prime minister is very serious, the government is very serious, the political leadership is very serious about this," said one senior government official. HOW BAD IS THE RIFT BETWEEN MALIKI AND SADR? Sadr launched two uprisings against U.S. forces in 2004. His movement ventured into national politics in 2005 and Sadr was instrumental in appointing Maliki as prime minister in 2006. But Sadr pulled his movement out of the government in April 2007 when Maliki refused to set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. Maliki has refused to negotiate with Sadr over the issue of the Mehdi Army since the crisis erupted, officials say, although envoys from the ruling Shi'ite alliance have met the cleric in Iran, where he is taking advanced Islamic studies. "It's very bad, the chemistry between the two is extremely bad, it has become very personal," said the senior government official, referring to Maliki and Sadr. SADR'S NEXT MOVE? The cleric last month threatened to formally scrap a ceasefire he imposed on the Mehdi Army last August. But then a couple of weeks later he urged his followers to observe the truce, leaving many guessing about his true intentions. Few analysts expect Sadr to disarm the Mehdi Army. The Sadrists themselves have a number of competing considerations. On the one hand they are a mass movement with an eye on power in the Shi'ite south, especially after they boycotted the last local elections in January 2005. The movement should do well against parties backing Maliki, who have been accused of doing little to improve life in the south. But hardline elements, especially in the Mehdi Army, are chafing under the government crackdown and want confrontation. CONSEQUENCES OF AN ALL-OUT SHOWDOWN? An outbreak of large-scale battles would draw in more American troops at a time when U.S. force levels are being cut. Heavy clashes in Baghdad and the Shi'ite south could put an end to any more major U.S. drawdowns until a new U.S. president has taken office in Washington in 2009. AND WHO IS SADR? Sadr, in his 30s, is a fervent nationalist who has attracted a zealous following among young and dispossessed Shi'ites. He derives much of his authority from his family. His father, respected Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, was killed in 1999 for defying Saddam. Sadr has not appeared in public in a year and U.S. officials say he has spent this time in Iran. (Writing by Dean Yates, Editing by Dominic Evans)
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshiyar Zebari (R) and Juan-Pedro Schaerer, Red Cross head of delegation in Iraq, sign the memorandum of agreement for the reopening of Red Cross office in Baghdad during ...
