ANALYSIS-EU, Balkans need action, not words from 'new Serbia'
08 Jul 2008 14:03:00 GMT Source: Reuters
By Ellie Tzortzi BELGRADE, July 8 (Reuters) - The election of a pro-Western government this week showed Serbia has finally turned to Europe and away from the defiant nationalism of the 1990s. Its Balkan neighbours and the European Union now expect it to turn words into actions. This stems partly from Western frustration at years of Serbian defiance and ambiguity over its role as the main aggressor of the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s. But it is also largely due to unease over the make-up of the new coalition, a motley alliance of the pro-Western Democrats and the Socialists of late autocrat Slobodan Milosevic, along with free-market technocrats and welfare-champion populists. "Serbia's been stuck for a long time at a crossroads," said Daniel Serwer of the U.S. Institute of Peace. "We've spent years and years listening not to everything Belgrade says, but only the things we wanted to hear, to empty promises. This government will be judged by what it does, not by what it says." The coalition parties share a desire to get Serbia into the EU. Their plan of how to get there -- while revitalising the economy and clawing back the country's former province Kosovo -- so far looks vague. "Given the number of parties in the ruling coalition and wildly disparate views, it may be difficult to keep them all singing from the same sheet," former U.S. ambassador to Serbia, William Montgomery, wrote in a commentary this week. Doris Pack of the European Parliament said the EU was pleased the new government would be pro-Western, but was aware of the "very bad, very burdened history" of the Socialists, who ruled Serbia through a decade of war and isolation in the 1990s. The Democrats had to make clear to the Socialists the importance of cooperating with the war crimes tribunal in The Hague which deals with cases relating to the Yugoslav wars, she said, or Serbia's EU path would remain blocked. "We signed the Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) before the election against the conditions we had set before, but we were very clear it will not be ratified until cooperation with The Hague is complete," she said. Beyond that, Pack said Belgrade must address the lingering nationalism that stems from denial and ignorance of Serbia's role in wars in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo. The people should be told, she said. "If they don't understand why (Bosnian Serb general) Ratko Mladic has to go to The Hague, it is not possible for us to open our door more than we already have." DELICATE BALANCE A Belgrade-based Western diplomat said several EU states felt Brussels had done enough for now by giving sweeteners such as the SAA to swing the May election for the pro-Western camp. "We know the coalition is delicately balanced and we want it to work, but the terms are clear: deliver the fugitives, speed up reforms, start being more realistic on Kosovo," he said. The diplomat said landmark moves on Serbia and Balkan EU hopefuls were unlikely "for several months" after Irish voters rejected the Lisbon treaty -- a reform plan regarded by several big states as crucial to the EU's further enlargement. But Belgrade is desperate for a firm EU signal to attract investors and deliver the booming growth and generous welfare policy it has promised. Dragana Ignjatovic, analyst for business intelligence firm Global Insight, said investors would remain cautious until the new government showed its true colours. "Yes, Serbia has a pro-Western government, but there is also a very strong opposition," she said. "The dynamic between the Socialists and Democrats has to present itself more clearly before investors start swarming to the country." Besides war crimes, Belgrade's other main test on the road to the EU will be its stance on Kosovo. The Albanian-majority province declared independence in February, nine years after NATO expelled Serb forces and the United Nations took over. Serbia and Russia opposed the Western-backed secession. Belgrade is now tightening its grip on the Serb minority and blocking an EU mission due to police the new state. Serwer said Belgrade must stop agitating for Kosovo's partition along ethnic lines, or risk provoking minority Albanians in south Serbia and Macedonia, both of whom followed Kosovo in rebelling. "If Kosovo doesn't get a fair shake, if Kosovo starts looking like it's not really independent, this would easily awaken the sleeping giant of pan-Albanianism, and that would be very harmful to Macedonia and Serbia," Serwer said. But a pragmatic Serbia would have a positive ripple effect on the region, allowing Kosovo to stabilise and providing a moderating influence on Bosnia's restive Serb half. "It's up to Serbia whether the Balkans' process of EU integration will move fast or slow," said Dukagjin Gorani, adviser to Kosovo PM Hashim Thaci. "Serbia's new government should be part of the solution, not part of the problem." (additional reporting by Fatos Bytyci; Editing by Charles Dick)
Ethnic Albanian Demiri Sulejman shows the bullet marks to media after a shootout near his home in the village of Aracinovo June 1, 2008. Macedonia's parliamentary election descended into chaos on ...
