Nigerian census maintains status quo ahead of polls
09 Jan 2007 14:43:04 GMT Source: Reuters
By Estelle Shirbon ABUJA, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Nigeria released a politically sensitive breakdown of its census figures on Tuesday which maintained the status quo ahead of elections in April. The figures put the population of the northern states at 75 million and that of the southern states at 65 million. This does not challenge Nigeria's complex political system which has been delicately balanced for decades on the assumption the north has a numerical advantage. Censuses are controversial in Africa's most populous country because rival ethnic and religious groups have tried to use them to assert their numerical superiority and claim a larger share of oil revenues and political representation. "If the figures had come out the other way round, it could have led to a very, very chaotic situation," said Abubakar Momoh, lecturer in political science at Lagos State University. "Certainly there will be disappointment in the south but I don't see it leading to major protests or violence." Nigeria, Africa's top oil producer, is a hugely complex ethnic and religious mosaic made up of about 300 ethnic groups. It is scheduled to hold elections in April and many politicians and civil society groups had advised against releasing the census results before the polls for fear of stoking violence. The census, which took place in March, was the first in 15 years. It was widely criticised and residents of many areas across the country complained they had not been counted. Under a system known as rotation, the presidency is expected to pass to a northerner after eight years in the hands of Olusegun Obasanjo, who is from the southwest. Most northerners regard this rotation as their due. The fear was that if the census had shown the south to be more populous, northerners would have felt threatened. NORTH STRENGTHENED "This outcome strengthens the northern candidates in the next election," said independent analyst John Adeleke. "All the oil is in the south and the only thing the north has in its favour is numbers. These figures bolster the north by reinforcing the view that the northern vote will determine the election." The north is predominantly Muslim and the biggest ethnic group is the Fulani, though significant Christian minorities live in many parts of the north. The north is considered more of a political bloc than the south. The south is predominantly Christian although its biggest ethnic group, the southwestern Yoruba, are split about evenly between Christians and Muslims. The southeast, dominated by the Ibo, and the oil-producing "south-south" do not see their interests as aligned with those of the Yoruba. Ethnic and religious violence has killed an estimated 14,000 Nigerians since the return to democracy in 1999. The census put the population of Lagos, Nigeria's sprawling, commercial capital located in the south, at 9 million. Most estimates in NGO reports or in the media put the population of Lagos at between 12 and 15 million. The census gave the northern states of Kano and Kaduna populations of 9.4 million and 6.1 million respectively. Analysts said these figures would be disputed in the south, where few people would believe that Kano had more people than Lagos or Ibadan, another major southern city. Oyo state, where Ibadan is located, was credited with 5.6 million people. (Additional reporting by Felix Onuah)
